6104 Hilton Ln · Mount Morris, MI 48458

$35,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Built 1965 6,534 sqft lot $15/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this fixer-upper with great investment potential. This 1,140 sq ft home offers 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. A spacious dining room. 1st floor laundry room potential 3rd bedroom and a full basement providing ample storage or future living space. An attached garage adds convenience. A solid opportunity for investors or buyers ready to add value. Nice size Backyard for entertaining.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Spacious dining room
• Nice size backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS DINING ROOM
• FULL BASEMENT
• AMPLE STORAGE
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• NICE SIZE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $567 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.7% vs local median 5.5% in Mount Morris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#357 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Beecher Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #722 of 760 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.43%
• DSCR: 4.09
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $80,165
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -56.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $30,497
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.48×
• Total profit: $73,287
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48458

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,305/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $388

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
48 Sunny Ln Mount Morris, MI	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,100	$0.58	43d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,000 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 110 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 109 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $35,000 Active 108 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $35,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Welcome to this fixer-upper with great investment potential. This 1,140 sq ft home offers 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. A spacious dining room. 1st floor laundry room potential 3rd bedroom and a full basement providing ample storage or future living space. An attached garage adds convenience. A solid opportunity for investors or buyers ready to add value. Nice size Backyard for entertaining.

17. 2026-05-15
    price $35,000 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Welcome to this fixer-upper with great investment potential. This 1,140 sq ft home offers 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. A spacious dining room. 1st floor laundry room potential 3rd bedroom and a full basement providing ample storage or future living space. An attached garage adds convenience. A solid opportunity for investors or buyers ready to add value. Nice size Backyard for entertaining.

18. 2026-04-09
    price $39,500 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Welcome to this fixer-upper with great investment potential. This 1,140 sq ft home offers 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. A spacious dining room. 1st floor laundry room potential 3rd bedroom and a full basement providing ample storage or future living space. An attached garage adds convenience. A solid opportunity for investors or buyers ready to add value. Nice size Backyard for entertaining.

19. 2026-04-08
    price $39,500 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Welcome to this fixer-upper with great investment potential. This 1,140 sq ft home offers 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. A spacious dining room. 1st floor laundry room potential 3rd bedroom and a full basement providing ample storage or future living space. An attached garage adds convenience. A solid opportunity for investors or buyers ready to add value. Nice size Backyard for entertaining.

20. 2026-02-11
    listed $40,000 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Welcome to this fixer-upper with great investment potential. This 1,140 sq ft home offers 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. A spacious dining room. 1st floor laundry room potential 3rd bedroom and a full basement providing ample storage or future living space. An attached garage adds convenience. A solid opportunity for investors or buyers ready to add value. Nice size Backyard for entertaining.

21. 2026-02-11
    listed $40,000 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Welcome to this fixer-upper with great investment potential. This 1,140 sq ft home offers 2 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. A spacious dining room. 1st floor laundry room potential 3rd bedroom and a full basement providing ample storage or future living space. An attached garage adds convenience. A solid opportunity for investors or buyers ready to add value. Nice size Backyard for entertaining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,305 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,305 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$1,305
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,062
• − Management: −$1,062
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $6,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,606
• After-tax cash flow: $5,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beecher Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2604500
• Math proficiency: 7% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,719
• Composite: 9.96/100
• National rank: #14685
• State rank: #722 of 760 in MI

Livability — Mount Morris

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #357
• US rank: #9095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Beecher, MI
• County: Genesee County · 221,329 people
• City population: 19,519
• Metro: Flint, MI
• Population (ZIP): 19,519
• Household income: $46,797
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.45%
• Current HPI: 244.2061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Flint, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $35,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $35,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $39,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $39,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-11 Listed $40,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-11 Listed $40,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,305 · +187.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.