9910 Robin Ct · The Woodlands, TX 77385

$319,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,221 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 1979 $144/sqft · 9% below area Est $351k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

?? Beautiful Home at 9910 Robin Ct, Conroe, TX 77385 Welcome to this charming and spacious home located on a quiet cul-de-sac in Conroe, Texas. This property offers a perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and modern style — ideal for families or anyone seeking a peaceful place to call home. As you enter, you’ll find an open concept living and dining area filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen features plenty of cabinet space, a breakfast bar, and an efficient layout that connects seamlessly to the main living area — perfect for entertaining or family gatherings. This home includes 3 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, providing plenty of room for everyone. The primary suite offers comfort and privacy with its own full bathroom and generous closet space. Outside, enjoy a large, private backyard — ideal for weekend barbecues, pets, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. ? Highlights ?? 3 spacious bedrooms ?? 3 full bathrooms ?? Open-concept kitchen with breakfast bar ?? Private fenced backyard ?? Bright and modern interior with neutral finishes ?? Convenient parking and easy access to I-45 ?? Great location near shopping, dining, and schools This home is move-in ready and located in an established neighborhood just minutes from The Woodlands and major highways. Whether you’re looking for a family home or an investment opportunity, 9910 Robin Ct offers comfort, space, and value in one of Conroe’s most convenient areas.

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Easy access to i-45

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• BREAKFAST BAR
• PRIVATE FENCED BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT PARKING
• EASY ACCESS TO I-45

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-317 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 319 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $320k implies a 254% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,835 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.25%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,648
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: -8.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16868 Pink Wintergreen Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,201 (-1%)	2mo	$315,000	$143	81
16817 Pink Wintergreen Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,122 (-4%)	4mo	$319,990	$151	78
17169 Upland Bent Ct	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,161 (-3%)	2mo	$369,999	$171	76
17105 Upland Bent Ct	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,107 (-5%)	5mo	$349,000	$166	75
16875 Pink Wintergreen Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,132 (-4%)	1mo	$305,000	$143	71
17465 Buckeye Br	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,280 (+3%)	2mo	$359,900	$158	60
17254 Rookery Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,118 (-5%)	2mo	$375,000	$177	60
9221 Inland Leather Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,527 (+14%)	2mo	$349,900	$138	60
17015 Ash Leaf Way	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,915 (-14%)	3mo	$360,000	$188	52
17027 Shy Leaf Ct	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,935 (-13%)	6mo	$360,000	$186	50
17064 Easter Lily	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,915 (-14%)	0mo	$350,000	$183	47
8186 Laughing Falcon Trl	0.58mi	4/3.5	2,538 (+14%)	4mo	$445,000	$175	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-69,857
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-77,700
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,408 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,909/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,810

Max offer price $263,839

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-136	-5% $-227	+0% $-317	+5% $-408	+10% $-498
Rent	-10% $-508	-5% $-412	+0% $-317	+5% $-222	+10% $-127
Rate	-1.0pp $-156	-0.5pp $-236	base $-317	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9295 Inland Leather Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2497	$2,400	$0.96	4d	1	0.28mi
17153 Upland Bent Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2752	$2,149	$0.78	22d	1	0.33mi
17706 Sea Rosemary Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	4.0	2425	$2,895	$1.19	45d	1	0.55mi
9819 Kiwi Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,826	$1.27	8d	1	0.79mi
373 N Centro Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,286	$1.41	23d	1	1.01mi
357 N Centro Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,316	$1.43	0d	1	1.02mi
18624 Whimsic Aly Conroe, TX	4.0	4.0	2013	$2,416	$1.20	45d	1	1.03mi
18403 Idyllic Aly Conroe, TX	4.0	4.0	1619	$1,931	$1.19	45d	1	1.07mi
446 S Centro Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,451	$1.51	23d	1	1.07mi
18415 Idyllic Aly Conroe, TX	4.0	4.0	2013	$2,066	$1.03	0d	1	1.08mi
18419 Idyllic Aly Conroe, TX	4.0	4.0	2013	$2,271	$1.13	0d	1	1.08mi
305 N Centro Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1487	$2,451	$1.65	0d	1	1.09mi
418 S Centro Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,876	$1.28	23d	1	1.10mi
18334 W Centro Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,136	$1.32	23d	1	1.12mi
16782 N Thrasher Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2137	$2,040	$0.95	0d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,900 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,900 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 210 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,900 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,900 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,900 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,900 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,900 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,900 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,900 Active 197 DOM
15. 2025-11-11
    listed $319,900 Active 1535-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1535 chars)

    ?? Beautiful Home at 9910 Robin Ct, Conroe, TX 77385 Welcome to this charming and spacious home located on a quiet cul-de-sac in Conroe, Texas. This property offers a perfect balance of comfort, functionality, and modern style — ideal for families or anyone seeking a peaceful place to call home. As you enter, you’ll find an open concept living and dining area filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen features plenty of cabinet space, a breakfast bar, and an efficient layout that connects seamlessly to the main living area — perfect for entertaining or family gatherings. This home includes 3 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, providing plenty of room for everyone. The primary suite offers comfort and privacy with its own full bathroom and generous closet space. Outside, enjoy a large, private backyard — ideal for weekend barbecues, pets, or simply relaxing under the Texas sky. ? Highlights ?? 3 spacious bedrooms ?? 3 full bathrooms ?? Open-concept kitchen with breakfast bar ?? Private fenced backyard ?? Bright and modern interior with neutral finishes ?? Convenient parking and easy access to I-45 ?? Great location near shopping, dining, and schools This home is move-in ready and located in an established neighborhood just minutes from The Woodlands and major highways. Whether you’re looking for a family home or an investment opportunity, 9910 Robin Ct offers comfort, space, and value in one of Conroe’s most convenient areas.

16. 2024-12-06
    historical
17. 2024-09-12
    listed $305,000 Active
18. 2024-09-12
    historical
19. 2024-06-11
    soldstatus
20. 2018-03-09
    soldstatus
21. 2006-11-02
    soldstatus
22. 2006-08-11
    historical
23. 2006-02-11
    listed $114,900
24. 2003-03-21
    soldstatus
25. 2002-12-20
    historical
26. 2002-05-30
    listed $92,900
27. 1996-02-01
    soldstatus $90,307

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,909 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,854 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: +$945/yr (+$79/mo · 19.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$4,909
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,312
• − Management: −$2,312
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$9,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,270
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+254.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-11 Listed $319,900 Fizber.com
• 2024-12-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-12 Listed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-12 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-11-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-02-11 Listed $114,900 HARMLS
• 2003-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-12-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-05-30 Listed $92,900 HARMLS
• 1996-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,307 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,909 · +24.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.