The Sebastian Plan · Cantonment, FL 32533

$311,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,439 sqft · SingleFamily · 164 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Sebastian, a beautiful single-story floor plan in Reserve at Brookhaven, located in Cantonment, FL! Boasting 1,667 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space, the Sebastian offers 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 well-appointed bathrooms. Upon entry, you're greeted by a welcoming foyer that flows into an open-concept living area, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and great room - perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen is a highlight of the home, featuring stylish shaker-style cabinetry, sleek stainless-steel appliances, luxurious countertops, and a pantry for extra storage. With ample counter space, it's ideal for preparing meals and hosting guests. Tucked away for privacy, the spacious primary bedroom includes a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. The three additional bedrooms are generously sized and versatile - great for children, guests, or even a home office. These bedrooms share a conveniently located full bathroom, featuring a tub and shower combination. Step outside to the backyard, where you'll find plenty of room for relaxation or outdoor entertaining. The front yard is beautifully landscaped, with a charming pathway leading you to the front door, adding to the home's curb appeal.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 163 days

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETRY
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• LUXURIOUS COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $311,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $336,363.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Meadow Elementary School (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 710 students, 51% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 748 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,173 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.86%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,363
• List price: $311,900
• Delta: -7.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2905 Ironweed Cir	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	3mo	$296,000	$206	73
3174 Serviceberry Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	8mo	$284,900	$182	72
2921 Ironweed Cir	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,528 (+6%)	1mo	$297,900	$195	68
3142 Serviceberry Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	9mo	$289,900	$185	68
2913 Ironweed Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+0%)	2mo	$294,900	$204	68
3073 Serviceberry Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	10mo	$309,900	$198	63
3025 Serviceberry Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	7mo	$297,900	$190	60
2929 Ironweed Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,302 (-10%)	2mo	$289,900	$223	54
2120 Jarrod Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,579 (+10%)	2mo	$270,000	$171	46
1995 Joshua Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,579 (+10%)	0mo	$268,000	$170	44
2028 Jason Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (+14%)	2mo	$264,900	$161	38
2008 Jason Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+11%)	6mo	$269,500	$168	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-93,755
• Equity at exit: $50,153

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-132,089
• Equity at exit: $29,083

Cash invested: $94,182 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 31 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.1 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $355,900 ($210/sqft)
• Median days on market: 49 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 748
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,162 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,764
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$420 /mo · $5,045/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,942

Max offer price $247,117

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-384	-5% $-501	+0% $-617	+5% $-733	+10% $-849
Rent	-10% $-788	-5% $-702	+0% $-617	+5% $-531	+10% $-446
Rate	-1.0pp $-447	-0.5pp $-531	base $-617	+0.5pp $-704	+1.0pp $-793

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,091
• Closing costs: $10,091
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3021 Serviceberry Rd Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,250	$1.26	72d	1	0.29mi
9497 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,850	$1.20	15d	1	0.94mi
9499 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,675	$1.10	63d	1	0.94mi
9502 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,695	$1.11	15d	1	0.96mi
9433 Nature Creek Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,800	$1.16	15d	1	0.97mi
9525 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,750	$1.15	63d	1	1.00mi
9801 Nature Creek Blvd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1778	$1,895	$1.07	15d	1	1.01mi
9907 Cali Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$2,160	$1.38	15d	1	1.25mi
8511 Myslak Way Pensacola, FL	4.0	1.0–2.5	1010	$2,463	$2.44	15d	109	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $311,900 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $311,900 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $311,900 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $311,900 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $311,900 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $311,900 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $311,900 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $311,900 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $311,900 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $311,900 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $311,900 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $311,900 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $311,900 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $311,900 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $311,900 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $311,900 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $311,900 Active 140 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $311,900 Active 139 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $311,900 Active 138 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $311,900 Active 137 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $311,900 Active 136 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $311,900 Active 135 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $311,900 Active 134 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $311,900 Active 133 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $311,900 Active 132 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $311,900 Active 131 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $311,900 Active 130 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $311,900 Active 129 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $311,900 Active 128 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    pricedays on market $311,900 Active 127 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 126 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $309,900 Active 125 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $309,900 Active 124 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $309,900 Active 123 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $309,900 Active 122 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $309,900 Active 121 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $309,900 Active 119 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $309,900 Active 117 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $309,900 Active 116 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $309,900 Active 113 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $309,900 Active 112 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $309,900 Active 111 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $309,900 Active 110 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $309,900 Active 108 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $309,900 Active 105 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $309,900 Active 104 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $309,900 Active 103 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $309,900 Active 102 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,900 Active 98 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,900 Active 97 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,842
• − Property taxes: −$5,045
• − Insurance: −$1,682
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,075
• − Management: −$2,075
• − Depreciation: −$9,785
• Taxable loss: −$13,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,255
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,195–$21,585 screening

The Sebastian Plan in Gonzalez, FL is a well-maintained single-story home with good condition and potential for cosmetic upgrades to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances and countertops — Upgrades to appliances and countertops can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures and finishes — Modernizing bathrooms can increase appeal and value for potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kingsfield Elementary School C+ FL #764/2,144 Nat'l #8,415/41,679 Middle Ransom Middle School C+ FL #209/571 Nat'l #2,873/14,009 High J. M. Tate Senior High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cantonment

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 334,637 people
• City population: 31,860
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $309,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $306,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $304,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $302,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Listed $299,900 Zillow