The Sebastian Plan · Cantonment, FL 32533

$311,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,439 sqft · SingleFamily · 256 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Introducing the Sebastian, a beautiful single-story floor plan in Reserve at Brookhaven, located in Cantonment, FL! Boasting 1,667 square feet of thoughtfully planned living space, the Sebastian offers 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 well-appointed bathrooms. Upon entry, you're greeted by a welcoming foyer that flows into an open-concept living area, seamlessly connecting the kitchen, dining, and great room - perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The chef-inspired kitchen is a highlight of the home, featuring stylish shaker-style cabinetry, sleek stainless-steel appliances, luxurious countertops, and a pantry for extra storage. With ample counter space, it's ideal for preparing meals and hosting guests. Tucked away for privacy, the spacious primary bedroom includes a large walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. The three additional bedrooms are generously sized and versatile - great for children, guests, or even a home office. These bedrooms share a conveniently located full bathroom, featuring a tub and shower combination. Step outside to the backyard, where you'll find plenty of room for relaxation or outdoor entertaining. The front yard is beautifully landscaped, with a charming pathway leading you to the front door, adding to the home's curb appeal.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 255 days

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETRY
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• LUXURIOUS COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $311,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $336,808.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $312k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-609 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (20.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (30.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Meadow Elementary School (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 710 students, 51% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 911 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $217,487 (30.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.76%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $336,808
• List price: $311,900
• Delta: -7.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2989 Ironweed Cir	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	1mo	$279,900	$195	80
2979 Ironweed Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+0%)	3mo	$277,101	$192	77
3485 Blaney Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-6%)	2mo	$245,000	$180	73
2917 Ironweed Cir	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,491 (+4%)	2mo	$274,900	$184	71
2993 Ironweed Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+0%)	2mo	$282,900	$196	68
2925 Ironweed Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+0%)	1mo	$289,900	$201	68
2921 Ironweed Cir	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,528 (+6%)	4mo	$297,900	$195	66
2913 Ironweed Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+0%)	5mo	$294,900	$204	65
2929 Ironweed Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,302 (-10%)	5mo	$289,900	$223	51
2120 Jarrod Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,579 (+10%)	5mo	$270,000	$171	43
1995 Joshua Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,579 (+10%)	3mo	$268,000	$170	42
2028 Jason Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,648 (+14%)	5mo	$264,900	$161	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-93,361
• Equity at exit: $50,219

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-131,146
• Equity at exit: $29,121

Cash invested: $94,306 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 42 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.9 mo (25%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $355,900 ($210/sqft)
• Median days on market: 107 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +11.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 911
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,175 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,766
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$421 /mo · $5,052/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,946

Max offer price $248,619

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-377	-5% $-493	+0% $-609	+5% $-726	+10% $-842
Rent	-10% $-781	-5% $-695	+0% $-609	+5% $-524	+10% $-438
Rate	-1.0pp $-440	-0.5pp $-524	base $-609	+0.5pp $-697	+1.0pp $-786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,202
• Closing costs: $10,104
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3078 Serviceberry Rd Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,295	$1.35	29d	1	0.17mi
3078 Serviceberry Rd Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,245	$1.32	7d	1	0.17mi
3480 Blaney Dr Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.0	1861	$1,995	$1.07	51d	1	0.21mi
3021 Serviceberry Rd Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,250	$1.26	164d	1	0.29mi
9469 Nature Creek Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1843	$1,650	$0.90	10d	1	0.90mi
9497 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,850	$1.20	107d	1	0.94mi
9499 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,675	$1.10	154d	1	0.94mi
9502 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,695	$1.11	107d	1	0.96mi
9433 Nature Creek Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,800	$1.16	107d	1	0.97mi
9525 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,750	$1.15	154d	1	1.00mi
9801 Nature Creek Blvd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1778	$1,895	$1.07	107d	1	1.01mi
9530 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,700	$1.12	10d	1	1.01mi
9532 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,700	$1.12	10d	1	1.02mi
9536 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1785	$1,999	$1.12	51d	1	1.02mi
9620 Nature Creek Blvd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1569	$1,650	$1.05	41d	1	1.06mi
9907 Cali Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2080	$2,485	$1.19	0d	1	1.25mi
424 Pemberton Ln Cantonment, FL	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,200	$1.33	35d	1	1.26mi
8511 Myslak Way Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1038	$2,095	$2.02	16d	48	1.47mi
8511 Myslak Way Pensacola, FL	4.0	1.0–2.5	1010	$2,173	$2.15	22d	108	1.47mi
8511 Myslak Way Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	797	$2,526	$3.17	1d	21	1.47mi
8511 Myslak Way Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1038	$2,095	$2.02	10d	48	1.47mi
10283 Niall Dr Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,200	$1.23	1d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $311,900 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $311,900 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $311,900 Active 254 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $311,900 Active 253 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $311,900 Active 252 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $311,900 Active 250 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $311,900 Active 249 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $311,900 Active 248 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $311,900 Active 247 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $311,900 Active 246 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $311,900 Active 245 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $311,900 Active 244 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $311,900 Active 243 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $311,900 Active 242 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $311,900 Active 241 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $311,900 Active 240 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $311,900 Active 239 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $311,900 Active 238 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $311,900 Active 237 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $311,900 Active 236 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $311,900 Active 235 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $311,900 Active 234 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $311,900 Active 233 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $311,900 Active 232 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $311,900 Active 231 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $311,900 Active 230 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $311,900 Active 229 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $311,900 Active 228 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $311,900 Active 227 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $311,900 Active 226 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $311,900 Active 225 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $311,900 Active 224 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $311,900 Active 223 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $311,900 Active 222 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $311,900 Active 221 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $311,900 Active 220 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $311,900 Active 219 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $311,900 Active 218 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $311,900 Active 217 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $311,900 Active 216 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $311,900 Active 215 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $311,900 Active 214 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $311,900 Active 212 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $311,900 Active 211 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $311,900 Active 210 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $311,900 Active 209 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $311,900 Active 208 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $311,900 Active 207 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $311,900 Active 206 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $311,900 Active 205 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,866
• − Property taxes: −$5,052
• − Insurance: −$1,684
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,088
• − Management: −$2,088
• − Depreciation: −$9,798
• Taxable loss: −$13,478
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,235
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,195–$21,585 screening

The Sebastian Plan in Gonzalez, FL is a well-maintained single-story home with good condition and potential for cosmetic upgrades to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances and countertops — Upgrades to appliances and countertops can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures and finishes — Modernizing bathrooms can increase appeal and value for potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kingsfield Elementary School C+ FL #764/2,144 Nat'l #8,415/41,679 Middle Ransom Middle School C+ FL #209/571 Nat'l #2,873/14,009 High J. M. Tate Senior High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cantonment

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 334,637 people
• City population: 31,860
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $309,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $306,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $304,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $302,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-25 Listed $299,900 Zillow