19 7 Big Tree Dr · Maple Falls, WA 98244

$118,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 791 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 1994 1.09 ac lot $149/sqft · 39% above area Est $85k · 39% over $181/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare one-acre lot in Division 7 at The Glen! This fully furnished park model offers an open floor plan with a spacious living area, full bathroom, and full-size appliances. A large sunroom and additional living space expand the footprint, creating flexibility for both relaxing and hosting. The covered porch with a wall of windows brings in natural light and allows you to enjoy the surrounding setting year-round. The home is currently configured to comfortably sleep up to ten. Outside, the property truly stands apart. A main shed with its own deck and dedicated dining area creates an ideal space for outdoor entertaining, while a second storage shed and woodshed provide excellent utility. A l

Key facts

• 1.09 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1994

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#544 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mount Baker School District (rural): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #165 of 291 in WA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $110,920 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.31%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $84,919
• List price: $118,000
• Delta: 38.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $11,377
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $49,564
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98244

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$148 /mo · $1,770/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$181
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,261

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $558	-5% $517	+0% $477	+5% $436	+10% $395
Rent	-10% $329	-5% $403	+0% $477	+5% $550	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $536	-0.5pp $507	base $477	+0.5pp $446	+1.0pp $415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $181 · $2,172/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $118,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $118,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $118,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $118,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $118,000 Active
17. 2019-02-15
    soldstatus $105,000 Sold
18. 2019-02-01
    status Pending Inspection
19. 2019-01-29
    price $115,000
20. 2018-08-31
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$1,770
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − HOA: −$2,172
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $4,222
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,013
• After-tax cash flow: $4,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mount Baker School District
• NCES district ID: 5305310
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,695
• Composite: 42.37/100
• National rank: #6931
• State rank: #165 of 291 in WA

Livability — Maple Falls

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #22984

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maple Falls, WA
• Population (ZIP): 3,080

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Native American 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.13%
• Current HPI: 420.4673
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $118,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-15 Sold (MLS) $105,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-01 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-29 Price Changed $115,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-31 Listed $119,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid