4305 Bay Point Rd #446 · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$264,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · Condo public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1980

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY 2BR 2.5BATH Townhouse. Utility room, Kitchen, Living room, Dining room and Large screened screened in sun room located on first floor. Two Bedroom with balcony access located on the second floor. Hurricane sliding doors in dining room and living room, Upstairs hall has a walk in closet area for storage. . . A/C unit replaced in 2021. New Hot water heater. Interior has been painted. The Bay Point community offers a new marina, tennis, golf, and walking, biking and golf carting. The COA fee includes building, fire, wind and flood insurance, reserves for exterior windows and doors, painting, and roof replacement. Exterior repairs and maintenance. See documents for a complete COA fee quarterly fee bread down. Additionally, there is a Bay Point HOA fee of $1650/year. Short Term rental is limited to 7 units within GVII at any give time and requires board approval by the property owner.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1980
• Listed 86 days

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $264,900 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-879/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,235 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.19%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,125
• List price: $264,900
• Delta: -3.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-48,568
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-52,270
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,092 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,720/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,185

Max offer price $251,955

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $2	+0% $-73	+5% $-148	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-156	+0% $-73	+5% $9	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $60	-0.5pp $-6	base $-73	+0.5pp $-142	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4050 Marriott Dr Unit 1510830P Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1506	$6,212	$4.12	14d	1	0.68mi
4805 Stellata Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,250	$1.76	22d	1	0.68mi
2400 Grandiflora Blvd #606 Panama City, FL	3.0	3.0	1485	$2,500	$1.68	22d	1	0.84mi
5111 Flint Ave Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,350	$1.32	22d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: waterexterior maint.
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $264,900 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $264,900 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,900 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,900 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,900 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $264,900 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,900 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,900 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $264,900 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $264,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,900 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $264,900 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,900 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,900 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,900 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,900 Active 65 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $264,900 Active 64 DOM
19. 2026-04-15
    price $274,900
20. 2026-03-27
    listed $279,000 Active
21. 2023-06-15
    soldstatus $269,000 Closed 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    MOVE IN READY 2BR 2.5BATH Townhouse. Utility room, Kitchen, Living room, Dining room and Large screened screened in sun room located on first floor. Two Bedroom with balcony access located on the second floor. Hurricane sliding doors in dining room and living room, Upstairs hall has a walk in closet area for storage. . . A/C unit replaced in 2021. New Hot water heater. Interior has been painted. The Bay Point community offers a new marina, tennis, golf, and walking, biking and golf carting. The COA fee includes building, fire, wind and flood insurance, reserves for exterior windows and doors, painting, and roof replacement. Exterior repairs and maintenance. See documents for a complete COA fee quarterly fee bread down. Additionally, there is a Bay Point HOA fee of $1650/year. Short Term rental is limited to 7 units within GVII at any give time and requires board approval by the property owner.

22. 2023-04-24
    status Pending 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    MOVE IN READY 2BR 2.5BATH Townhouse. Utility room, Kitchen, Living room, Dining room and Large screened screened in sun room located on first floor. Two Bedroom with balcony access located on the second floor. Hurricane sliding doors in dining room and living room, Upstairs hall has a walk in closet area for storage. . . A/C unit replaced in 2021. New Hot water heater. Interior has been painted. The Bay Point community offers a new marina, tennis, golf, and walking, biking and golf carting. The COA fee includes building, fire, wind and flood insurance, reserves for exterior windows and doors, painting, and roof replacement. Exterior repairs and maintenance. See documents for a complete COA fee quarterly fee bread down. Additionally, there is a Bay Point HOA fee of $1650/year. Short Term rental is limited to 7 units within GVII at any give time and requires board approval by the property owner.

23. 2023-04-01
    listed $289,000 Active 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    MOVE IN READY 2BR 2.5BATH Townhouse. Utility room, Kitchen, Living room, Dining room and Large screened screened in sun room located on first floor. Two Bedroom with balcony access located on the second floor. Hurricane sliding doors in dining room and living room, Upstairs hall has a walk in closet area for storage. . . A/C unit replaced in 2021. New Hot water heater. Interior has been painted. The Bay Point community offers a new marina, tennis, golf, and walking, biking and golf carting. The COA fee includes building, fire, wind and flood insurance, reserves for exterior windows and doors, painting, and roof replacement. Exterior repairs and maintenance. See documents for a complete COA fee quarterly fee bread down. Additionally, there is a Bay Point HOA fee of $1650/year. Short Term rental is limited to 7 units within GVII at any give time and requires board approval by the property owner.

24. 2023-02-22
    historical
25. 2023-02-18
    status Active
26. 2023-02-18
    price $275,000
27. 2023-02-10
    price $295,000
28. 2023-01-25
    status Active
29. 2023-01-25
    price $289,000
30. 2023-01-20
    status Pending
31. 2023-01-06
    price $285,000
32. 2022-12-18
    listed $295,000 Active
33. 2021-12-14
    historical
34. 2021-12-14
    historical
35. 2021-12-14
    historical
36. 2021-12-14
    historical
37. 2021-12-14
    historical
38. 2021-12-14
    historical
39. 2021-12-09
    historical
40. 2021-12-09
    historical
41. 2021-12-09
    historical
42. 2021-05-24
    soldstatus $227,500
43. 2021-04-15
    listed $259,900
44. 2015-01-10
    listed $129,900
45. 2013-05-21
    listed $135,000
46. 2010-08-12
    listed $130,000
47. 2009-05-19
    listed $168,900
48. 2009-05-18
    listed $169,900
49. 2008-12-15
    listed $175,000
50. 2008-10-31
    soldstatus $129,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,720 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,720 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 59% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$2,720
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$5,499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,320
• After-tax cash flow: $440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+177.7% since first listed

38 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $274,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $279,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-06-15 Sold (MLS) $269,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-04-24 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2023-04-01 Listed $289,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-02-22 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2023-02-18 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2023-02-18 Price Changed $275,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-02-10 Price Changed $295,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-01-25 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2023-01-25 Price Changed $289,000 CPARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2023-01-06 Price Changed $285,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-12-18 Listed $295,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-12-09 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-05-24 Sold (MLS) $227,500 CPARMLS
• 2021-04-15 Listed $259,900 CPARMLS
• 2015-01-10 Listed $129,900 CPARMLS
• 2013-05-21 Listed $135,000 CPARMLS
• 2010-08-12 Listed $130,000 CPARMLS
• 2009-05-19 Listed $168,900 CPARMLS
• 2009-05-18 Listed $169,900 CPARMLS
• 2008-12-15 Listed $175,000 CPARMLS
• 2008-10-31 Sold (MLS) $129,000 CPARMLS
• 2008-08-20 Listed $129,900 CPARMLS
• 2006-11-13 Listed $258,000 CPARMLS
• 2006-03-14 Listed $269,900 CPARMLS
• 2005-09-28 Listed $299,900 CPARMLS
• 2003-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,720 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.