1 Bear St · Coram, NY 11784

$449,990

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,753 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1968 8,712 sqft lot Est $584k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors. Home needs work but can be a real beauty! This colonial home boasts 4 bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, garage and partial basement. Propane gas for cooking. Great potential! CASH or 203K Home loans only! Sold As-Is.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1968

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Listed as fixer condition; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; Partial unfinished basement; Partial attic
• Laundry & utility: Utilities connected: electricity and water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-162 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $421k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $399k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $399k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Coram — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#646 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New Lane Memorial Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 789 students, 44% FRL); Selden Middle School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #315 of 729 statewide, top 45%, 1,058 students, 37% FRL); Newfield High School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A-, #583 of 1,100 statewide, top 56%, 1,559 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 22% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,063 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $583,749
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1 Bear St	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,753 (0%)	1mo	$461,000	$263	100
11 Macintosh	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,774 (+1%)	2mo	$730,000	$411	64
16 Wedge Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,824 (+4%)	22mo	$620,000	$340	63
7 Filmore Ave	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,758 (+0%)	4mo	$575,000	$327	60
70 Blue Point Rd	0.60mi	4/1.5	1,894 (+8%)	5mo	$580,000	$306	55
53 Blue Point Rd	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,690 (-4%)	10mo	$531,000	$314	52
50 Laurelton Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,546 (-12%)	2mo	$640,000	$414	50
44 Iroquois Ave	0.44mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,892 (+8%)	10mo	$600,000	$317	47
11 Mooney Pond Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+3%)	11mo	$600,000	$333	44
0 Iroquois Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-14%)	3mo	$689,000	$459	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-83,022
• Equity at exit: $67,095

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-84,789
• Equity at exit: $38,907

Cash invested: $125,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11784

• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,991 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$767 /mo · $9,202/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$838
• Net cashflow: $-162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,195

Max offer price $421,450

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $-34	+0% $-162	+5% $-289	+10% $-416
Rent	-10% $-477	-5% $-319	+0% $-162	+5% $-4	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $-47	base $-162	+0.5pp $-278	+1.0pp $-397

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,498
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Pamela Ln Selden, NY	3.0	1.0	2340	$3,200	$1.37	4d	1	0.52mi
90 Blue Point Rd Selden, NY	3.0	3.0	2035	$4,800	$2.36	9d	1	0.63mi
170 Horizon View Dr Farmingville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1388	$3,890	$2.80	0d	1	0.69mi
405 Townehouse Dr Unit 405 Coram, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,890	$2.59	26d	1	1.20mi
2504 Townehouse Dr Unit 2504 Coram, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,890	$2.59	26d	1	1.21mi
44 Harford Dr Coram, NY	4.0	2.0	1381	$4,500	$3.26	0d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $449,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,202 · $767/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,202 · $767/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,206
• − Property taxes: −$9,202
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,831
• − Management: −$3,831
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$9,524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,286
• After-tax cash flow: $347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middle Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619200
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $86,140
• Composite: 52.89/100
• National rank: #1532
• State rank: #217 of 590 in NY

Livability — Coram

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12097

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coram, NY
• City population: 28,495
• Population (ZIP): 25,986

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -609.27%
• Current HPI: 381.2659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listed $449,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,202 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.