466 Trinity Rd · Dayton Lakes, TX 77535

$86,329

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 1964 5,998 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

JUST LISTED! 466 Trinity Rd is a fantastic investment opportunity available in Dayton, TX. This is a two-story home with three bedrooms, two bathrooms, and a layout that spans 1,736 sq ft. of comfortable living space. The home needs some work and is being sold AS IS but it has all the potential to become home sweet home. It also provides you with a calm remote lifestyle near both Trinity River and Pecan Lake. This location also provides you with nearby access to Us-90 and Hwy 146. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1964

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• NEARBY ACCESS TO US-90
• NEARBY ACCESS TO HWY 146

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered: No

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Detached carport; 1-car carport space
• Utilities: Lot size approximately 5,998 square feet (0.1377 acres)
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1964; 1,736 total living area
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Lot features: Other

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 14 x 15); Second bedroom on second level (approx. 9 x 12); Third bedroom on second level (approx. 8 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $330 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 36/100 on livability (#1,658 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dayton ISD (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #512 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dayton H S (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,633 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1234 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $597 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,969 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.54%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $7,247
• Equity at exit: $12,872

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $34,332
• Equity at exit: $7,464

Cash invested: $24,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77535

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 1234
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$453
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $463/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $86,329

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $354	+0% $330	+5% $305	+10% $281
Rent	-10% $201	-5% $265	+0% $330	+5% $394	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $352	base $330	+0.5pp $307	+1.0pp $284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,582
• Closing costs: $2,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $86,329 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $86,329 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $86,329 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $86,329 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $86,329 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $86,329 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $86,329 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $86,329 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $86,329 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $86,329 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $86,329 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $86,329 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $86,329 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $86,329 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-02-04
    listed $86,329 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $463 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,580 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,116/yr (+$93/mo · 240.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,836
• − Property taxes: −$463
• − Insurance: −$5,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$2,511
• Taxable income: $3,015
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$724
• After-tax cash flow: $3,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816410
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,293
• Composite: 30.25/100
• National rank: #6287
• State rank: #512 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton Lakes

• Score: 36/100
• State rank: #1658
• US rank: #27676

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton Lakes, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,504
• Household income: $84,497
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 321.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.61%
• Current HPI: 229.0925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $86,329 HARMLS

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $463 · -69.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.