919 Heidrick Ave · Mercedes, TX 78570

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1984 4,250 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

919 HEIDRICK AVE Property for sale, zoned for single family residence. This property is being sold primarily for the land and location. The current home is considered uninhabitable and a teardown.

Key facts

• 4,250 sq ft lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; House
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision: Garden Park; Directions: Going North 77-83

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $470 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 3.3% in Mercedes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#547 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mercedes ISD (suburban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #811 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mercedes H S (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,591 of 1,632 statewide, top 98%, 974 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: 390 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($311 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.77%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,144
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 Cindy Ln	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+10%)	10mo	$150,000	$134	62
108 Georgia Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (+12%)	8mo	$135,000	$118	39
163 N Colorado Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,075 (+6%)	23mo	$159,000	$148	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $39,151
• Equity at exit: $24,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.39×
• Total profit: $93,166
• Equity at exit: $40,764

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78570

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,050 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,259/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $455

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $496	-5% $483	+0% $470	+5% $457	+10% $445
Rent	-10% $387	-5% $429	+0% $470	+5% $512	+10% $553
Rate	-1.0pp $493	-0.5pp $482	base $470	+0.5pp $458	+1.0pp $447

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1202 North St Mercedes, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$885	$1.02	44d	1	0.14mi
203 E Royal Palm Dr Unit A Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	44d	1	0.77mi
203 E Royal Palm Dr Unit C Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,275	$1.25	44d	1	0.77mi
203 E Royal Palm Dr Unit D Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,325	$1.30	44d	1	0.77mi
907 E Starr Rd Unit D Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,050	$0.97	44d	1	1.24mi
906 E Starr Rd Unit B Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	1.25mi
1003 E Starr Rd Unit C Mercedes, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$995	$1.05	44d	1	1.28mi
1011 E Starr Rd Unit D Mercedes, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,095	$1.02	44d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,259 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,259 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,259
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,008
• − Management: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $5,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,266
• After-tax cash flow: $4,376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mercedes ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830250
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,606
• Composite: 12.84/100
• National rank: #9596
• State rank: #811 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mercedes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #547
• US rank: #10619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mercedes, TX
• City population: 33,596
• Population (ZIP): 33,596

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 44% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Current HPI: 238.8386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $45,000 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,259 · +18.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.