3210 Arlington Ave Unit 3D · New York, NY 10463

$319,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,100 sqft · Condo · 17 Days on market

Built 1955

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

FANTASTIC VALUE 2-BEDROOM 1.5-BATH IN CENTRAL RIVERDALE! Bring your vision to life in this spacious, true 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offering exceptional value in the heart of Central Riverdale at The Lawrence—an excellent mid-century boutique co-op. Rarely available, this sought-after “D” line corner residence boasts bright south and west exposures that flood the home with natural light, from the generously sized living room with two large windows to the corner primary bedroom with two exposures. Beautifully refinished hardwood floors run throughout, complemented by brand-new base moldings and fresh paint that make the space feel crisp and move-in ready while still leaving

Key facts

• Windowed kitchen
• Garage
• Built 1955

Tags

• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WINDOWED KITCHEN
• WINDOWED EN-SUITE BATH
• MANICURED OUTDOOR GARDEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $658 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $319k).
• Recommended offer: $314k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,624/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 5586% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $89k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $314,215 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.85%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $9,447
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $149,610
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10463

• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,624 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,785/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$761
• Net cashflow: $658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,791

Max offer price $319,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $879	-5% $769	+0% $658	+5% $548	+10% $438
Rent	-10% $372	-5% $515	+0% $658	+5% $802	+10% $945
Rate	-1.0pp $819	-0.5pp $740	base $658	+0.5pp $576	+1.0pp $492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Netherland Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$3,938	$3.48	23d	3	0.39mi
405 W 206th St Unit 1202E New York, NY	3.0	2.0	900	$6,250	$6.94	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-17
   listed $319,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$4,785
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,479
• − Management: −$3,479
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable income: $3,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$720
• After-tax cash flow: $7,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 69,470
• Household income: $74,974
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5586.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Two or more races 17% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 1% Dominican 25%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -294.75%
• Current HPI: 168.0211
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.60%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Listed $319,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid