3209 Landslide Dr · Celina, TX 75009

$311,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily · 307 Days on market

Built 2025 $171/sqft · 15% below area Est $366k · 15% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21136987 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this stunning single-family residence in the desirable Brookshire at Legacy Hills subdivision. Completed in 2025, this traditional-style home boasts 1,848 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet, and three well-appointed bathrooms (two full and one half), this layout offers both comfort and functionality. The open floorplan enhances the home's inviting atmosphere, complemented by high-end finishes like granite countertops and luxury vinyl plank flooring. Enjoy modern conveniences with central heating and cooling systems, as well as high-speed internet and cable TV availability. Situated within the Celina ISD, this property is conveniently located near Jerry & Linda Moore Middle School and Celina High School. A two-car garage provides ample storage, making this home an ideal choice for families seeking a blend of style and practicality.

Key facts

• Primary bath
• Laundry room
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• PATIO AT THE BACK
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• PRIMARY BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• LOFT AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $311k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-388 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (18.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2895 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($168k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $223,321 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.34%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,191
• List price: $311,490
• Delta: -14.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3216 Landslide Dr	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,817 (0%)	5mo	$264,990	$146	93
3209 Landslide Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,848 (+2%)	3mo	$280,990	$152	92
3217 Landslide Dr	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,849 (+2%)	5mo	$269,990	$146	90
3224 Landslide Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,894 (+4%)	4mo	$286,990	$152	86
1301 Payrone Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,827 (+1%)	8mo	$350,990	$192	82
1516 Abbott Creek Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,980 (+9%)	3mo	$376,000	$190	72
1500 Abbott Creek Rd	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,980 (+9%)	7mo	$383,400	$194	70
1220 Abbott Creek Rd	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,980 (+9%)	8mo	$399,000	$202	70
1308 Abbott Creek Rd	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,980 (+9%)	10mo	$399,000	$202	70
1221 Payrone Rd	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,912 (+5%)	9mo	$362,990	$190	70
3312 Dillonwood St	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,046 (+13%)	6mo	$278,000	$136	69
1200 Abbott Creek Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,980 (+9%)	13mo	$399,500	$202	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-81,723
• Equity at exit: $46,444

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-128,172
• Equity at exit: $26,932

Cash invested: $87,217 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2895
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,233 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,633
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,672/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,725

Max offer price $255,288

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,872
• Closing costs: $9,345
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3220 Dillonwood St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,099	$1.03	43d	1	0.07mi
3116 Winecup Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1882	$2,500	$1.33	15d	1	0.99mi
121 Tornillo Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1693	$2,449	$1.45	43d	1	1.17mi
3301 Little Bluestem Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1907	$2,499	$1.31	4d	1	1.18mi
109 Tornillo Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1518	$2,300	$1.52	24d	1	1.19mi
100 Barn Swallow Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1949	$2,400	$1.23	21d	1	1.25mi
2625 Mexia Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1958	$2,700	$1.38	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $311,490 Active 307 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $311,490 Active 306 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $311,490 Active 305 DOM
4. 2026-03-09
   soldstatus Closed 1012-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

   MLS# 21136987 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this stunning single-family residence in the desirable Brookshire at Legacy Hills subdivision. Completed in 2025, this traditional-style home boasts 1,848 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet, and three well-appointed bathrooms (two full and one half), this layout offers both comfort and functionality. The open floorplan enhances the home's inviting atmosphere, complemented by high-end finishes like granite countertops and luxury vinyl plank flooring. Enjoy modern conveniences with central heating and cooling systems, as well as high-speed internet and cable TV availability. Situated within the Celina ISD, this property is conveniently located near Jerry & Linda Moore Middle School and Celina High School. A two-car garage provides ample storage, making this home an ideal choice for families seeking a blend of style and practicality.

5. 2026-01-06
   status Pending 1012-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

   MLS# 21136987 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this stunning single-family residence in the desirable Brookshire at Legacy Hills subdivision. Completed in 2025, this traditional-style home boasts 1,848 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet, and three well-appointed bathrooms (two full and one half), this layout offers both comfort and functionality. The open floorplan enhances the home's inviting atmosphere, complemented by high-end finishes like granite countertops and luxury vinyl plank flooring. Enjoy modern conveniences with central heating and cooling systems, as well as high-speed internet and cable TV availability. Situated within the Celina ISD, this property is conveniently located near Jerry & Linda Moore Middle School and Celina High School. A two-car garage provides ample storage, making this home an ideal choice for families seeking a blend of style and practicality.

6. 2025-12-23
   price $280,990 1012-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

   MLS# 21136987 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this stunning single-family residence in the desirable Brookshire at Legacy Hills subdivision. Completed in 2025, this traditional-style home boasts 1,848 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet, and three well-appointed bathrooms (two full and one half), this layout offers both comfort and functionality. The open floorplan enhances the home's inviting atmosphere, complemented by high-end finishes like granite countertops and luxury vinyl plank flooring. Enjoy modern conveniences with central heating and cooling systems, as well as high-speed internet and cable TV availability. Situated within the Celina ISD, this property is conveniently located near Jerry & Linda Moore Middle School and Celina High School. A two-car garage provides ample storage, making this home an ideal choice for families seeking a blend of style and practicality.

7. 2025-12-22
   listed $311,490 Active 1012-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

   MLS# 21136987 - Built by Starlight Homes - Ready Now! ~ Discover this stunning single-family residence in the desirable Brookshire at Legacy Hills subdivision. Completed in 2025, this traditional-style home boasts 1,848 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring three spacious bedrooms, including a primary suite with a walk-in closet, and three well-appointed bathrooms (two full and one half), this layout offers both comfort and functionality. The open floorplan enhances the home's inviting atmosphere, complemented by high-end finishes like granite countertops and luxury vinyl plank flooring. Enjoy modern conveniences with central heating and cooling systems, as well as high-speed internet and cable TV availability. Situated within the Celina ISD, this property is conveniently located near Jerry & Linda Moore Middle School and Celina High School. A two-car garage provides ample storage, making this home an ideal choice for families seeking a blend of style and practicality.

8. 2025-11-03
   status Active 680-char remark

   Show marketing remark (680 chars)

   As you enter through the front porch and foyer, you will be welcomed into Saturn's open first floor. This space features a spacious family room that connects seamlessly to the kitchen and dining area, which leads out to a patio at the back. On the opposite side of the kitchen, you will find the laundry room. Upstairs, you will discover the primary bedroom and bathroom, along with two additional bedrooms, two full baths, and extra closet space. The primary bedroom is bright, thanks to two large windows that allow in ample natural light. The primary bath includes a generous walk-in closet. Additionally, there is a loft area where residents can gather for various activities.

9. 2025-11-03
   price $311,490 680-char remark

   Show marketing remark (680 chars)

   As you enter through the front porch and foyer, you will be welcomed into Saturn's open first floor. This space features a spacious family room that connects seamlessly to the kitchen and dining area, which leads out to a patio at the back. On the opposite side of the kitchen, you will find the laundry room. Upstairs, you will discover the primary bedroom and bathroom, along with two additional bedrooms, two full baths, and extra closet space. The primary bedroom is bright, thanks to two large windows that allow in ample natural light. The primary bath includes a generous walk-in closet. Additionally, there is a loft area where residents can gather for various activities.

10. 2025-09-03
    historical 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    As you enter through the front porch and foyer, you will be welcomed into Saturn's open first floor. This space features a spacious family room that connects seamlessly to the kitchen and dining area, which leads out to a patio at the back. On the opposite side of the kitchen, you will find the laundry room. Upstairs, you will discover the primary bedroom and bathroom, along with two additional bedrooms, two full baths, and extra closet space. The primary bedroom is bright, thanks to two large windows that allow in ample natural light. The primary bath includes a generous walk-in closet. Additionally, there is a loft area where residents can gather for various activities.

11. 2025-07-09
    price $355,490 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    As you enter through the front porch and foyer, you will be welcomed into Saturn's open first floor. This space features a spacious family room that connects seamlessly to the kitchen and dining area, which leads out to a patio at the back. On the opposite side of the kitchen, you will find the laundry room. Upstairs, you will discover the primary bedroom and bathroom, along with two additional bedrooms, two full baths, and extra closet space. The primary bedroom is bright, thanks to two large windows that allow in ample natural light. The primary bath includes a generous walk-in closet. Additionally, there is a loft area where residents can gather for various activities.

12. 2025-05-30
    listed $370,490 Active 680-char remark

    Show marketing remark (680 chars)

    As you enter through the front porch and foyer, you will be welcomed into Saturn's open first floor. This space features a spacious family room that connects seamlessly to the kitchen and dining area, which leads out to a patio at the back. On the opposite side of the kitchen, you will find the laundry room. Upstairs, you will discover the primary bedroom and bathroom, along with two additional bedrooms, two full baths, and extra closet space. The primary bedroom is bright, thanks to two large windows that allow in ample natural light. The primary bath includes a generous walk-in closet. Additionally, there is a loft area where residents can gather for various activities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,448
• − Property taxes: −$4,672
• − Insurance: −$1,557
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − Depreciation: −$9,062
• Taxable loss: −$10,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,455
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-01-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $280,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $311,490 NTREIS
• 2025-11-03 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $311,490 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $355,490 Zillow
• 2025-05-30 Listed $370,490 Zillow