77 Moss Woods Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$365,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2007 0.42 ac lot Est $351k · at est. $88/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous 4 bedroom/3.5 bath custom home on large lot in sought after gated Northbay! Built in 2007, the intelligent layout features a true entry that opens to a large living area with soaring ceilings, a beautiful brick fireplace with wood beam mantle, functional built ins, and fabulous natural light. The formal dining room adjacent to the living space is large, with wood beam entry, a lovely picture window, high end lighting, and perfect for entertaining. In the kitchen, you'll find plenty of counter space covered in a neutral granite, great storage, sleek stainless steel appliances, gas stovetop, and a breakfast area or keeping room that overlooks the private backyard. The split plan allows for privacy in the generous master suite with a stunning master bath, featuring marble countertops, double vanity, deep soaker tub, separate shower with frameless shower door, updated fixtures and finishes, plus a huge walk in closet with custom built ins. The guest wing downstairs offers two nicely sized bedrooms, plus a well appointed guest bath with double vanity loads of storage, and wonderful space for a guest bath. There is a half bath downstairs for your guests to use too! Upstairs you'll find a big bedroom with wood floors, attached full size bathroom, and closet. A private fenced in backyard is the perfect place for the kids to play! This one owner home has been so well maintained and has custom features throughout. Residents of gated Northbay enjoy amenities like access to two pools, tennis courts, walking trails, fishing, boating, and lovely parks and lakes. All this, and zoned for some of the state's top rated public schools, in a location that is just minutes from shopping, dining, and interstate access! This is a SOLID house that won't last long! Call for your private showing today!

Key facts

• Green space
• Huge backyard
• 2 pools

Tags

• HUGE BACKYARD
• COVERED FRONT ENTRY
• COVERED REAR ENTRY
• 2 POOLS
• MARINA
• GREEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-697/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $355k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Avenue Lower Elementary (437 students, 99% FRL); Madison Middle School (math 66% / reading 57%, grade B+, #6 of 179 statewide, top 3%, 1,154 students, 100% FRL); Madison Central High School (math 5% / reading 63%, grade F, #78 of 197 statewide, top 39%, 1,246 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 634 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($360k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,182 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $350,581
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 Moss Woods Dr	0.00mi	4/3.5	2,393 (+7%)	1mo	$365,000	$153	86
69 Moss Woods Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,351 (+5%)	1mo	$369,900	$157	84
20 Moss Woods Cv	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,141 (-4%)	6mo	$335,000	$156	78
217 Bayview Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,153 (-4%)	1mo	$379,900	$176	76
93 Napa Valley Cir	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,409 (+8%)	1mo	$359,900	$149	75
279 Bayview Dr	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,254 (+1%)	6mo	$374,500	$166	72
57 Napa Valley Cir	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,224 (-0%)	9mo	$389,000	$175	70
54 Moss Woods Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,139 (-4%)	8mo	$354,900	$166	68
213 Kiowa Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,352 (+5%)	8mo	$280,000	$119	67
332 Kiowa Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,314 (+4%)	8mo	$279,900	$121	52
435 Cheyenne Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,353 (+5%)	10mo	$449,000	$191	47
116 Oak Hollow Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,454 (+10%)	11mo	$268,500	$109	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-64,041
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-65,402
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 634
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,261/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,965

Max offer price $354,742

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $45	+0% $-58	+5% $-161	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-287	-5% $-172	+0% $-58	+5% $56	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $35	base $-58	+0.5pp $-153	+1.0pp $-249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Sonnett Cir Madison, MS	4.0	3.0	2564	$3,250	$1.27	25d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: gaspoolsecurity

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   listed $365,000 Active
3. 2020-01-31
   soldstatus 1815-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1815 chars)

   Fabulous 4 bedroom/3.5 bath custom home on large lot in sought after gated Northbay! Built in 2007, the intelligent layout features a true entry that opens to a large living area with soaring ceilings, a beautiful brick fireplace with wood beam mantle, functional built ins, and fabulous natural light. The formal dining room adjacent to the living space is large, with wood beam entry, a lovely picture window, high end lighting, and perfect for entertaining. In the kitchen, you'll find plenty of counter space covered in a neutral granite, great storage, sleek stainless steel appliances, gas stovetop, and a breakfast area or keeping room that overlooks the private backyard. The split plan allows for privacy in the generous master suite with a stunning master bath, featuring marble countertops, double vanity, deep soaker tub, separate shower with frameless shower door, updated fixtures and finishes, plus a huge walk in closet with custom built ins. The guest wing downstairs offers two nicely sized bedrooms, plus a well appointed guest bath with double vanity loads of storage, and wonderful space for a guest bath. There is a half bath downstairs for your guests to use too! Upstairs you'll find a big bedroom with wood floors, attached full size bathroom, and closet. A private fenced in backyard is the perfect place for the kids to play! This one owner home has been so well maintained and has custom features throughout. Residents of gated Northbay enjoy amenities like access to two pools, tennis courts, walking trails, fishing, boating, and lovely parks and lakes. All this, and zoned for some of the state's top rated public schools, in a location that is just minutes from shopping, dining, and interstate access! This is a SOLID house that won't last long! Call for your private showing today!

4. 2019-12-28
   listed $274,900 1815-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1815 chars)

   Fabulous 4 bedroom/3.5 bath custom home on large lot in sought after gated Northbay! Built in 2007, the intelligent layout features a true entry that opens to a large living area with soaring ceilings, a beautiful brick fireplace with wood beam mantle, functional built ins, and fabulous natural light. The formal dining room adjacent to the living space is large, with wood beam entry, a lovely picture window, high end lighting, and perfect for entertaining. In the kitchen, you'll find plenty of counter space covered in a neutral granite, great storage, sleek stainless steel appliances, gas stovetop, and a breakfast area or keeping room that overlooks the private backyard. The split plan allows for privacy in the generous master suite with a stunning master bath, featuring marble countertops, double vanity, deep soaker tub, separate shower with frameless shower door, updated fixtures and finishes, plus a huge walk in closet with custom built ins. The guest wing downstairs offers two nicely sized bedrooms, plus a well appointed guest bath with double vanity loads of storage, and wonderful space for a guest bath. There is a half bath downstairs for your guests to use too! Upstairs you'll find a big bedroom with wood floors, attached full size bathroom, and closet. A private fenced in backyard is the perfect place for the kids to play! This one owner home has been so well maintained and has custom features throughout. Residents of gated Northbay enjoy amenities like access to two pools, tennis courts, walking trails, fishing, boating, and lovely parks and lakes. All this, and zoned for some of the state's top rated public schools, in a location that is just minutes from shopping, dining, and interstate access! This is a SOLID house that won't last long! Call for your private showing today!

5. 2006-06-28
   soldstatus
6. 1989-09-26
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,261 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,884 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: +$622/yr (+$52/mo · 27.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$2,261
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,776
• − Management: −$2,776
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$7,056
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,694
• After-tax cash flow: $997/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+32.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-25 Listed $365,000 MLSU
• 2020-01-31 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-12-28 Listed $274,900 MLSU
• 2006-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-09-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,261 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.