251 Patterson Rd Unit H38 · Haines City, FL 33844

$114,900

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1995 3,001 sqft lot $83/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gated 55+ Community in Haines City. Immaculate/One Owner home offers 1 Bedroom/1.5 Bath and sold FULLY FURNISHED. Inside Laundry Room/Workshop and additional 8x10 Robin Shed on property for storage. Covered parking area and additional parking pad. Community offers pool, shuffleboard, recreational building and so much more. Close to medical, restaurants, shopping and FLORIDA ATTRACTIONS. Priced to sell $69,900. Call Susie today to view.

Key facts

• 3,001 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1995

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (admin office); annual fee $1,000 (about $83.33/month); HOA covers pool, escrow reserves, private road maintenance, and trash; Gated community with clubhouse, community mailbox, recreation facilities, pickleball courts and pool; Deed restrictions; golf carts allowed; cats permitted; senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); Two levels; Faces south
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.07 acre (approx. 50 x 69) lot
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Rain gutters; Shed(s); Road is asphalt and privately maintained

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $115k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.21%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-13,608
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-11,198
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,087

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $145	+0% $113	+5% $80	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $16	-5% $64	+0% $113	+5% $161	+10% $210
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $142	base $113	+0.5pp $83	+1.0pp $53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
251 Patterson Rd Unit C13 Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	532	$1,100	$2.07	24d	1	0.14mi
1800 N 12th St Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,100	$1.57	24d	1	1.39mi
1131 Pomelo St Unit B Davenport, FL	1.0	1.0	415	$1,350	$3.25	24d	1	1.45mi
1002 E St Unit 4 Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$825	$1.91	24d	1	1.48mi
1002 E St Unit 4 Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	432	$825	$1.91	15d	1	1.48mi
1002 E St Unit 1 Haines City, FL	1.0	1.0	500	$880	$1.76	19d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $114,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
7. 2026-05-19
   listed $114,900 Active
8. 2017-09-26
   soldstatus $62,500
9. 2017-09-25
   soldstatus $62,500 Sold 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Gated 55+ Community in Haines City. Immaculate/One Owner home offers 1 Bedroom/1.5 Bath and sold FULLY FURNISHED. Inside Laundry Room/Workshop and additional 8x10 Robin Shed on property for storage. Covered parking area and additional parking pad. Community offers pool, shuffleboard, recreational building and so much more. Close to medical, restaurants, shopping and FLORIDA ATTRACTIONS. Priced to sell $69,900. Call Susie today to view.

10. 2017-07-29
    status Pending 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Gated 55+ Community in Haines City. Immaculate/One Owner home offers 1 Bedroom/1.5 Bath and sold FULLY FURNISHED. Inside Laundry Room/Workshop and additional 8x10 Robin Shed on property for storage. Covered parking area and additional parking pad. Community offers pool, shuffleboard, recreational building and so much more. Close to medical, restaurants, shopping and FLORIDA ATTRACTIONS. Priced to sell $69,900. Call Susie today to view.

11. 2017-03-10
    listed $69,900 Active 439-char remark

    Show marketing remark (439 chars)

    Gated 55+ Community in Haines City. Immaculate/One Owner home offers 1 Bedroom/1.5 Bath and sold FULLY FURNISHED. Inside Laundry Room/Workshop and additional 8x10 Robin Shed on property for storage. Covered parking area and additional parking pad. Community offers pool, shuffleboard, recreational building and so much more. Close to medical, restaurants, shopping and FLORIDA ATTRACTIONS. Priced to sell $69,900. Call Susie today to view.

12. 1994-05-25
    soldstatus $12,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,502 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,502 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,502
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$109
• After-tax cash flow: $1,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+790.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2017-09-25 Sold (MLS) $62,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-10 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $12,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,502 · +13.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.