28 E Mlk Jr Ave · Lakeland, GA 31635

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 199 Days on market

Built 1952 7,405 sqft lot $50/sqft · 31% below area Est $58k · 31% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors Special! Welcome home to this cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath wood-frame cottage nestled in the peaceful countryside of Lanier County. Sold AS-IS no repairs will be made by the seller. This home offers the perfect blend of rustic charm and simple living, ideal for investors, first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking to escape the city and enjoy quiet rural life. Step inside to a warm and inviting layout, featuring natural wood accents and comfortable living spaces. The enclosed front porch is the perfect spot for morning coffee, plant lovers, or creating a relaxing sitting area. Located just minutes from Uptown Lakeland, this property provides the serenity of country living with the convenience of nearby shops, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're looking for a starter home, an investment opportunity, or a peaceful retreat, this home offers endless potential. Only 27mins to the nearest city Valdosta, GA.

Key facts

• Natural wood accents
• Wood-frame cottage
• Enclosed front porch

Tags

• WOOD-FRAME COTTAGE
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• NATURAL WOOD ACCENTS
• MINUTES FROM UPTOWN LAKELAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $800 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.4% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#379 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Lanier County (rural): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #67 of 174 in GA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Lanier County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.4% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.97%
• DSCR: 4.83
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $58,000
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -31.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 91.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $58,868
• Equity at exit: $21,224

10-year hold

• IRR: 89.9%
• Equity multiple: 13.04×
• Total profit: $134,549
• Equity at exit: $35,531

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31635

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $175/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $800

Break-even live

Break-even rent $304

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $823	-5% $812	+0% $800	+5% $789	+10% $778
Rent	-10% $696	-5% $748	+0% $800	+5% $852	+10% $904
Rate	-1.0pp $820	-0.5pp $811	base $800	+0.5pp $790	+1.0pp $780

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 192 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 190 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 189 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,900 Active 188 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 187 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 182 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 181 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 180 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,900 Active 179 DOM
18. 2026-04-24
    price $45,000 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    Investors Special! Welcome home to this cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath wood-frame cottage nestled in the peaceful countryside of Lanier County. Sold AS-IS no repairs will be made by the seller. This home offers the perfect blend of rustic charm and simple living, ideal for investors, first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking to escape the city and enjoy quiet rural life. Step inside to a warm and inviting layout, featuring natural wood accents and comfortable living spaces. The enclosed front porch is the perfect spot for morning coffee, plant lovers, or creating a relaxing sitting area. Located just minutes from Uptown Lakeland, this property provides the serenity of country living with the convenience of nearby shops, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're looking for a starter home, an investment opportunity, or a peaceful retreat, this home offers endless potential. Only 27mins to the nearest city Valdosta, GA.

19. 2026-03-16
    price $49,900 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    Investors Special! Welcome home to this cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath wood-frame cottage nestled in the peaceful countryside of Lanier County. Sold AS-IS no repairs will be made by the seller. This home offers the perfect blend of rustic charm and simple living, ideal for investors, first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking to escape the city and enjoy quiet rural life. Step inside to a warm and inviting layout, featuring natural wood accents and comfortable living spaces. The enclosed front porch is the perfect spot for morning coffee, plant lovers, or creating a relaxing sitting area. Located just minutes from Uptown Lakeland, this property provides the serenity of country living with the convenience of nearby shops, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're looking for a starter home, an investment opportunity, or a peaceful retreat, this home offers endless potential. Only 27mins to the nearest city Valdosta, GA.

20. 2026-01-23
    price $54,900 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    Investors Special! Welcome home to this cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath wood-frame cottage nestled in the peaceful countryside of Lanier County. Sold AS-IS no repairs will be made by the seller. This home offers the perfect blend of rustic charm and simple living, ideal for investors, first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking to escape the city and enjoy quiet rural life. Step inside to a warm and inviting layout, featuring natural wood accents and comfortable living spaces. The enclosed front porch is the perfect spot for morning coffee, plant lovers, or creating a relaxing sitting area. Located just minutes from Uptown Lakeland, this property provides the serenity of country living with the convenience of nearby shops, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're looking for a starter home, an investment opportunity, or a peaceful retreat, this home offers endless potential. Only 27mins to the nearest city Valdosta, GA.

21. 2025-12-02
    listed $60,000 New 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    Investors Special! Welcome home to this cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath wood-frame cottage nestled in the peaceful countryside of Lanier County. Sold AS-IS no repairs will be made by the seller. This home offers the perfect blend of rustic charm and simple living, ideal for investors, first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking to escape the city and enjoy quiet rural life. Step inside to a warm and inviting layout, featuring natural wood accents and comfortable living spaces. The enclosed front porch is the perfect spot for morning coffee, plant lovers, or creating a relaxing sitting area. Located just minutes from Uptown Lakeland, this property provides the serenity of country living with the convenience of nearby shops, schools, and local amenities. Whether you're looking for a starter home, an investment opportunity, or a peaceful retreat, this home offers endless potential. Only 27mins to the nearest city Valdosta, GA.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $175 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $367 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$192/yr (+$16/mo · 109.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 17 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$175
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,282
• After-tax cash flow: $7,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lanier County
• NCES district ID: 1303240
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,019
• Composite: 29.6/100
• National rank: #6476
• State rank: #67 of 174 in GA

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #19151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, GA
• Population (ZIP): 6,978

Population outlook (Lanier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,743 people
• By 2030: 10,892 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 10,975 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 10,764 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 9,418 · -12.3%
• By 2100: 7,419 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lanier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.3) · D 26.6% · R 73.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -46.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.3 2020: R+41.7 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Current HPI: 201.1664
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $45,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $49,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $54,900 GAMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $60,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $175 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.