Pedernales Plan · Denton, TX 76226

$360,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 443 Days on market

↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You also will find the entry to your 2.5-car garage. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio - perfect for relaxing outdoors or grilling out for your friends and family. Retreat to your master suite where you. ..

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Combined family room
• Kitchen island

Tags

• FOURTH BEDROOM
• COMBINED FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH
• KITCHEN ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $360,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $400,276.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $361k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-497 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1110 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 443 days — a 12% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $287,226 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 443 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.32%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,276
• List price: $360,990
• Delta: -9.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3809 Birch Ln	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,649 (-8%)	1mo	$369,990	$224	79
3608 Birch Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,010 (+12%)	0mo	$419,990	$209	76
3917 Birch Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,763 (-2%)	7mo	$397,984	$226	75
3908 Birch Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,958 (+9%)	3mo	$389,990	$199	74
7613 Poplar Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,004 (+11%)	0mo	$385,000	$192	73
3805 Birch Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,029 (+13%)	1mo	$404,990	$200	72
3909 Yarrow Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,958 (+9%)	8mo	$364,990	$186	70
3813 Birch Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,958 (+9%)	8mo	$404,139	$206	66
3813 Yarrow Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,010 (+12%)	9mo	$399,990	$199	66
7408 Santolina Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,649 (-8%)	6mo	$364,990	$221	65
4000 Birch Ln	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,010 (+12%)	5mo	$413,234	$206	62
7312 Santolina Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,010 (+12%)	9mo	$414,990	$206	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-100,444
• Equity at exit: $59,682

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-143,870
• Equity at exit: $34,609

Cash invested: $112,077 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76226

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1110
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,872 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,099
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $6,004/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$603
• Net cashflow: $-497

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,502

Max offer price $328,340

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,069
• Closing costs: $12,008
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5901 Bull Creek Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1318	$2,195	$1.67	3d	1	0.88mi
5908 Harvey Gap Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$3,800	$2.07	1d	1	0.92mi
5405 Bardwell Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$2,750	$1.56	24d	1	1.08mi
8508 White Rock Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2041	$3,000	$1.47	18d	1	1.13mi
5108 Middlestone Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1913	$2,750	$1.44	7d	1	1.19mi
5200 Woodway Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2129	$2,600	$1.22	4d	1	1.24mi
5200 Woodway Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2129	$2,900	$1.36	43d	1	1.24mi
3329 Tamarack Ln Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1994	$2,600	$1.30	17d	1	1.26mi
3621 Bonnie Brae St Unit 3621 Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,195	$1.18	43d	1	1.34mi
3612 Aaron Pl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1684	$2,350	$1.40	43d	1	1.36mi
3600 Aaron Pl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,350	$1.26	17d	1	1.37mi
3413 Aaron Pl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1684	$2,250	$1.34	17d	1	1.38mi
3401 Aaron Pl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1922	$2,500	$1.30	43d	1	1.39mi
4204 Sonoma Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2105	$2,100	$1.00	18d	1	1.40mi
4505 Vintage Blvd Argyle, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1392	$1,945	$1.40	10d	11	1.40mi
4701 Napa Valley Dr Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1761	$1,995	$1.13	43d	1	1.41mi
3128 Buckthorn Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1845	$2,395	$1.30	43d	1	1.41mi
3312 Stonecrop Trl Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,200	$1.27	24d	1	1.43mi
4512 Remuda Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,300	$1.32	43d	1	1.45mi
4705 Piedmonte Ct Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$2,500	$1.70	24d	1	1.45mi
5208 Brookside Dr Argyle, TX	4.0	2.0	2007	$2,495	$1.24	7d	1	1.46mi
4512 Claret Ct Argyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2395	$2,600	$1.09	24d	1	1.47mi
3121 Hornbeam St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,399	$1.30	2d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,990 Active 443 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,990 Active 442 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,990 Active 441 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,990 Active 440 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,990 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,990 Active 434 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $360,990 Active 433 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $360,990 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $360,990 Active 429 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $360,990 Active 428 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $360,990 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $360,990 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $360,990 Active 425 DOM
14. 2026-03-19
    price $360,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You also will find the entry to your 2.5-car garage. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio - perfect for relaxing outdoors or grilling out for your friends and family. Retreat to your master suite where you. ..

15. 2026-01-10
    price $349,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You also will find the entry to your 2.5-car garage. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio - perfect for relaxing outdoors or grilling out for your friends and family. Retreat to your master suite where you. ..

16. 2025-08-20
    price $351,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You also will find the entry to your 2.5-car garage. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio - perfect for relaxing outdoors or grilling out for your friends and family. Retreat to your master suite where you. ..

17. 2025-08-07
    price $360,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You also will find the entry to your 2.5-car garage. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio - perfect for relaxing outdoors or grilling out for your friends and family. Retreat to your master suite where you. ..

18. 2025-04-01
    listed $380,990 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    The exciting Pedernales floor plan boasts a four bedroom, two bathroom single-story home. Upon entering this outstanding home, you are met with a foyer area with access to your fourth bedroom at the front of the home. In need of a secluded work from home space or an area for the kids to do their homework? Transform the fourth bedroom in to a study room for your convenience. A little further down the hall and you will discover your third bedroom with the full secondary bathroom residing between the two bedrooms. You also will find the entry to your 2.5-car garage. Around the corner from the garage is your sizable walk-in utility room, as well as your second bedroom. At the heart of your home is the uniquely-designed combined family room and dining area that your friends and family are sure to enjoy. Never miss out on any conversations with guests, since the open-concept kitchen area opens up to the combined family room and dining area, making hosting guests for the holiday a breeze. Your kitchen comes fully equipped with ample counterspace featuring granite countertops with a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island with the option to raise the bar for additional seating underneath, industry-leading appliances, and an oversized, walk-in pantry. You will love entertaining guests in this home! The door from your family room leads to your optional covered patio - perfect for relaxing outdoors or grilling out for your friends and family. Retreat to your master suite where you. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,422
• − Property taxes: −$6,004
• − Insurance: −$2,001
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,757
• − Management: −$2,757
• − Depreciation: −$11,644
• Taxable loss: −$13,119
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,149
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 43,587
• Household income: $180,982
• Rent vs Own: 6.4% rent · 93.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 40.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.81%
• Current HPI: 253.1948
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $360,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $351,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $360,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $380,990 Zillow