111 Grider Rd · Winchester, TN 37398

$268,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,825 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1992

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short walk to the lake from this Brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Largel lot with 2 storage buildings both with elec. that you can enjoy sitting on the back screened porch to enjoy. Home has been completly repainted inside, new flooring in kitchen and dining area. New carpet to be installed in living room, den and all bedrooms. Move In Ready

Key facts

• Large lot
• Storage buildings
• Walk to the lake

Tags

• WALK TO THE LAKE
• LARGE LOT
• STORAGE BUILDINGS
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• NEW A/C AND DUCT WORK
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#149 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, schools F.
• Franklin County (town): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #111 of 139 in TN (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $268k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,952 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $775,625
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 Cooper Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,773 (-3%)	17mo	$350,000	$197	60
199 Tennessee Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-1%)	20mo	$765,000	$425	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-37,785
• Equity at exit: $40,034

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-25,853
• Equity at exit: $23,215

Cash invested: $75,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37398

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,408
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,133/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,043

Max offer price $268,500

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,125
• Closing costs: $8,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $268,500 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $268,500 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $268,500 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $268,500 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $268,500 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $268,500 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $268,500 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $268,500 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $268,500 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $268,500 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $268,500 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $268,500 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $268,500 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $268,500 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $268,500 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $268,500 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $268,500 Active 4 DOM
18. 2026-05-26
    listed $268,500 Active
19. 2018-12-14
    soldstatus $140,500 Closed 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Short walk to the lake from this Brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Largel lot with 2 storage buildings both with elec. that you can enjoy sitting on the back screened porch to enjoy. Home has been completly repainted inside, new flooring in kitchen and dining area. New carpet to be installed in living room, den and all bedrooms. Move In Ready

20. 2018-12-04
    soldstatus $140,500
21. 2018-10-15
    historical Contingent - Financing 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Short walk to the lake from this Brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Largel lot with 2 storage buildings both with elec. that you can enjoy sitting on the back screened porch to enjoy. Home has been completly repainted inside, new flooring in kitchen and dining area. New carpet to be installed in living room, den and all bedrooms. Move In Ready

22. 2018-10-08
    listed $139,900 Active 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    Short walk to the lake from this Brick 3 bedroom, 2 bath home. Largel lot with 2 storage buildings both with elec. that you can enjoy sitting on the back screened porch to enjoy. Home has been completly repainted inside, new flooring in kitchen and dining area. New carpet to be installed in living room, den and all bedrooms. Move In Ready

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,133 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,906 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$773/yr (+$64/mo · 68.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,040
• − Property taxes: −$1,133
• − Insurance: −$1,342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,073
• − Management: −$2,073
• − Depreciation: −$7,811
• Taxable loss: −$3,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$854
• After-tax cash flow: $1,954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 4701290
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,108
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9094
• State rank: #111 of 139 in TN

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #13341

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,712

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,858 people
• By 2030: 43,540 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 44,623 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 45,523 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 48,954 · +14.2%
• By 2100: 50,170 · +17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.2) · D 23.0% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -53.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.2 2020: R+47.7 2016: R+43.7 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.03%
• Current HPI: 333.839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+91.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $268,500 FSBO.com
• 2018-12-14 Sold (MLS) $140,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $140,500 Public Records
• 2018-10-15 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-08 Listed $139,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,133 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.