5613 Annunciation St · Houston, TX 77016

$340,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2023 7,318 sqft lot ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Cash flow +2.5/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand-new construction in Northside Houston! This never-lived-in home features 5 spacious bedrooms, 4 full bathrooms, and 1 half bath with a functional open-concept layout perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. The home offers modern finishes, plenty of natural light, a stylish kitchen with ample cabinet space, and generous living areas throughout. The primary suite includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. The fully fenced lot provides added privacy and outdoor space for family gatherings or pets. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, dining, and schools. Move-in ready and waiting for its first owner!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Stylish kitchen
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULLY FENCED LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Security gate; Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (2023); Slab foundation; Cement siding; Composition roof
• Construction: Built in 2023; Cement siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing; Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 bedrooms (5 possible bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Attic fan
• Interior features: Double vanity; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; HVAC energy-efficient components
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $340,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $399,884.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (47.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (40.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (47.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marshall El (math 11% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,127 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 610 students, 98% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,306 (47.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.90%
• DSCR: 0.34
• GRM: 16.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,884
• List price: $340,000
• Delta: -14.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $88,006
• Equity at exit: $321,617

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $313,253
• Equity at exit: $656,189

Cash invested: $111,968 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$739 /mo · $8,865/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-1,390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,801

Max offer price $177,306

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,163	-5% $-1,277	+0% $-1,390	+5% $-1,503	+10% $-1,616
Rent	-10% $-1,551	-5% $-1,470	+0% $-1,390	+5% $-1,309	+10% $-1,229
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,188	-0.5pp $-1,288	base $-1,390	+0.5pp $-1,493	+1.0pp $-1,599

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,971
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $340,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $340,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $340,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $340,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $340,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $340,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $340,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $350,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $350,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $350,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    listed $350,000 Active 639-char remark
14. 2026-04-10
    historical
15. 2026-03-17
    price $369,900
16. 2025-10-27
    price $379,900
17. 2025-03-31
    price $399,900
18. 2025-01-25
    price $449,900
19. 2025-01-25
    status Active
20. 2025-01-23
    historical
21. 2024-07-26
    listed $479,900 Active
22. 2024-07-24
    historical
23. 2024-07-11
    historical
24. 2024-03-02
    price $500,000
25. 2024-02-08
    price $550,000
26. 2024-02-01
    listed $600,000 Active
27. 2024-01-31
    historical
28. 2024-01-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,865 · $739/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,865 · $739/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,400
• − Property taxes: −$8,865
• − Insurance: −$1,999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,960
• − Management: −$1,960
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$24,322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,837
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,841/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-43.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $369,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $379,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-31 Price Changed $399,900 HARMLS
• 2025-01-25 Price Changed $449,900 HARMLS
• 2025-01-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-26 Listed $479,900 HARMLS
• 2024-07-24 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-07-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-02 Price Changed $500,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-08 Price Changed $550,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-01 Listed $600,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-31 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-01-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+147.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,865 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.