204 Shoreview Dr · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,651 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 8,237 sqft lot $130/sqft · 26% below area Est $291k · 26% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this inviting 1-story single-family home in the Lakes at Crockett Martin, featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, a formal dining, and an open layout filled with abundant natural light. The kitchen is thoughtfully designed with a large island and breakfast bar, granite countertops, a striking tile backsplash, undercabinet lighting, and a pantry, all flowing seamlessly into the family room for easy entertaining. Your primary suite comes with an en-suite bath with double sinks, soaking tub, separate shower, and a walk-in closet. Step outside to a fenced backyard with a covered patio, ideal for outdoor dining or quiet evenings. Residents enjoy neighborhood amenities, including scenic

Key facts

• Shared green spaces
• Stocked pond
• Covered patio

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• SCENIC LAKES
• WALKING TRAILS
• STOCKED POND
• SHARED GREEN SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: POA: Lakes at Crockett Martin; Annual association fee of $450; Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2021; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard; Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor, 17x13); Bedroom (First floor, 13x11); Bedroom (First floor, 12x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First floor, 6x6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-394/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $198,236 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,428
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: -26.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
339 Parkin Ct	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+2%)	2mo	$269,990	$161	90
16114 Hatton Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+4%)	1mo	$278,990	$163	86
16039 Tallis Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+4%)	7mo	$277,990	$162	81
335 Parkin Ct	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+4%)	2mo	$278,990	$163	72
209 Shoreview Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (+13%)	1mo	$292,990	$158	72
327 Parkin Ct	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+4%)	1mo	$275,990	$161	70
338 Parkin Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-10%)	2mo	$260,990	$176	65
16059 Tallis Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+4%)	7mo	$271,990	$159	64
16063 Tallis Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-10%)	4mo	$253,990	$171	63
323 Parkin Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-10%)	6mo	$257,990	$174	62
488 Shoreview Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-12%)	6mo	$244,900	$169	60
515 Fairfax Ln	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,758 (+6%)	3mo	$349,500	$199	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-42,626
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-61,859
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,133/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,024

Max offer price $209,094

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	43d	1	0.28mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	10d	1	1.31mi
15141 Meadow Gln S Conroe, TX	3.0	3.0	1864	$1,961	$1.05	22d	1	1.31mi
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	43d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $214,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    historical
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $214,900 Active 991-char remark
16. 2026-04-16
    price $249,900
17. 2026-03-25
    listed $259,900 Active
18. 2026-03-25
    historical
19. 2026-02-15
    listed $2,100
20. 2026-01-30
    listed $265,000 Active
21. 2026-01-17
    historical $2,300
22. 2026-01-04
    price $2,300
23. 2025-11-06
    listed $2,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,133 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,133 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$4,133
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,903
• − Management: −$1,903
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$3,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$953
• After-tax cash flow: $559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in the Lakes at Crockett Martin is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level and minimal repairs needed. The highest-ROI updates to increase its value are painting the exterior, landscaping, and replacing window treatments.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8854.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Listed for Rent $2,100 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed for Rent $2,400 HARMLS