10418 Castle Dr · Castle Point, MO 63136

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1968 6,499 sqft lot Est $109k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming ranch-style home in a quiet North County Castlepoint neighborhood providing strong potential for both investors and owner-occupants! This well-maintained property offers 3 comfortable bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing a functional layout perfect for everyday living, ready for your finishing touches. Step inside to an inviting living area. The kitchen features ample cabinet space and a practical layout, making meal prep easy and efficient. Generous finished basement with full bathroom and walk-out to fenced back yard. Ideal as a rental or primary residence. Convenient location with easy access to major roads, shopping, and schools. Please contact co-listing ag

Key facts

• 6,499 sq ft lot
• Built 1968
• Listed 30 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $450 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#313 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lewis And Clark Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 145 students, 98% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $90k implies a 543% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.44%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $108,675
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10417 Prince Dr	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,040 (+10%)	2mo	$120,000	$115	76
10557 Castle Dr	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,023 (+8%)	1mo	$110,000	$108	73
10501 Baron Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	888 (-6%)	2mo	$99,000	$111	67
1236 Bliss Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	944 (-0%)	0mo	$118,000	$125	67
10505 Ewell Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	912 (-4%)	2mo	$127,000	$139	66
9984 Duke Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	960 (+2%)	1mo	$54,000	$56	66
10128 Ashbrook Dr	0.60mi	3/1.0	912 (-4%)	1mo	$130,000	$143	66
10117 Royal Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	864 (-9%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	64
10236 Monarch Dr	0.52mi	3/1.5	850 (-10%)	1mo	$35,000	$41	57
10127 Monarch Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,015 (+7%)	1mo	$155,000	$153	56
10522 Byfield Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,038 (+10%)	1mo	$99,900	$96	47
10231 Monarch Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,073 (+14%)	1mo	$189,999	$177	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $45,968
• Equity at exit: $44,531

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.88×
• Total profit: $123,053
• Equity at exit: $71,970

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,303 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $836/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $733

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $501	-5% $476	+0% $450	+5% $425	+10% $399
Rent	-10% $347	-5% $399	+0% $450	+5% $502	+10% $553
Rate	-1.0pp $496	-0.5pp $473	base $450	+0.5pp $427	+1.0pp $403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	24d	1	0.08mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	15d	1	0.23mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	4d	1	0.24mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	2d	1	0.32mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	15d	1	0.38mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	22d	1	0.38mi
13061 Lord Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,040	$1.16	22d	1	0.39mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	24d	1	0.40mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	44d	1	0.41mi
10504 Baron Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	8d	1	0.43mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	44d	1	0.47mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	24d	1	0.48mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	8d	1	0.55mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	44d	1	0.57mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	15d	1	0.62mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	18d	1	0.62mi
1230 Roxton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	22d	1	0.70mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	24d	1	0.72mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	24d	1	0.82mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	11d	1	0.84mi
1115 Bakewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	916	$1,300	$1.42	44d	1	0.84mi
1208 Rapid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	5d	1	0.85mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	17d	1	0.88mi
10367 Coburg Lands Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,270	$1.39	44d	1	0.89mi
10508 Druid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,475	$1.31	17d	1	0.92mi
1009 Bliss Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	44d	1	0.98mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	24d	1	1.00mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	24d	1	1.02mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	44d	1	1.03mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	8d	1	1.09mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	24d	1	1.15mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	44d	1	1.15mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	24d	1	1.22mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	8d	1	1.24mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	3d	1	1.27mi
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	44d	1	1.27mi
10203 Trio Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,435	$1.57	17d	1	1.28mi
815 Bella Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,275	$1.48	44d	1	1.38mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	44d	1	1.39mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	15d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $90,000
3. 2026-03-21
   listed $100,000 Active
4. 2026-03-21
   historical $100,000
5. 2026-01-18
   historical $1,395
6. 2025-12-06
   price $1,395
7. 2025-10-24
   listed $1,435
8. 2025-05-26
   historical $1,325
9. 2025-05-05
   listed $1,325
10. 2025-05-05
    historical $1,325
11. 2025-05-03
    listed $1,325
12. 2017-08-24
    soldstatus $14,000
13. 2017-08-24
    soldstatus $22,800
14. 2005-03-03
    soldstatus $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $836 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $873 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$37/yr (+$3/mo · 4.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$836
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,251
• − Management: −$1,251
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $4,190
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,005
• After-tax cash flow: $4,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Castle Point

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #14373

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Point, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+32.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $90,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Listed $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Coming Soon $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-18 Rental Removed $1,395 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $1,395 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-10-24 Listed for Rent $1,435 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-05-26 Rental Removed $1,325 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-05-05 Listed for Rent $1,325 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-05-05 Rental Removed $1,325 SHOWMOJO2
• 2025-05-03 Listed for Rent $1,325 SHOWMOJO2
• 2017-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $22,800 Public Records
• 2017-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $836 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.