251 Harris Blvd · Caney City, TX 75148

$179,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 2006 $160/sqft · 13% below area Est $206k · 13% under $637/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bedroom, 2 bath home located in Clearwater Bay at Cedar Creek Lake offers a comfortable open layout and peaceful surroundings. The spacious living area features large windows that bring in natural light and provide relaxing views of the outdoors. The kitchen includes generous cabinet space and a breakfast bar that opens to the living area ideal for gathering with family and friends. With durable tile flooring throughout and two full bathrooms, the home is both practical and easy to maintain. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard offering plenty of space for entertaining, gardening, pets, or simple relaxing. Mature shade trees. Located just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this home provides easy access to boating, fishing, and lakeside recreation while still offering a quite retreat. A great opportunity for a full-time home, weekend getaway, in Clearwater Bay Community.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Large backyard
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• LARGE WINDOWS
• GENEROUS CABINET SPACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• DURABLE TILE FLOORING
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($361/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 0.6% in Caney City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,562 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Malakoff ISD (town): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #187 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,345 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,802
• List price: $179,500
• Delta: -12.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 Harris Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (+4%)	6mo	$185,000	$159	79
231 Harris Blvd	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	1mo	$199,999	$167	78
301 Harris Blvd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	2mo	$189,990	$158	67
4780 La Prada	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+14%)	1mo	$215,000	$168	63
299 Harris Blvd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,180 (+5%)	11mo	$199,900	$169	63
288 Harris Blvd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (+9%)	9mo	$215,000	$176	61
225 Harris Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	20mo	$210,000	$175	61
223 Harris Blvd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+7%)	21mo	$209,900	$175	60
157 Harris Blvd	0.42mi	2/2.5	1,224 (+9%)	7mo	$200,000	$163	57
104 Nob Hill Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (-6%)	5mo	$240,000	$227	55
103 Bayside Cir	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+14%)	0mo	$199,900	$156	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-26,750
• Equity at exit: $26,764

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-19,118
• Equity at exit: $15,520

Cash invested: $50,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75148

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,554/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$637
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $179,500

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $81	+0% $30	+5% $-21	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-160	-5% $-65	+0% $30	+5% $125	+10% $220
Rate	-1.0pp $120	-0.5pp $76	base $30	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,875
• Closing costs: $5,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5320 Loma Vis Malakoff, TX	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,400	$1.81	44d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $637 · $7,644/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,500 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,500 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,500 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,500 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,500 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,500 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $179,500 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,500 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   price $179,500 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $184,500 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,500 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,500 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,500 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,500 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,500 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    price $184,500 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 2 bath home located in Clearwater Bay at Cedar Creek Lake offers a comfortable open layout and peaceful surroundings. The spacious living area features large windows that bring in natural light and provide relaxing views of the outdoors. The kitchen includes generous cabinet space and a breakfast bar that opens to the living area ideal for gathering with family and friends. With durable tile flooring throughout and two full bathrooms, the home is both practical and easy to maintain. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard offering plenty of space for entertaining, gardening, pets, or simple relaxing. Mature shade trees. Located just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this home provides easy access to boating, fishing, and lakeside recreation while still offering a quite retreat. A great opportunity for a full-time home, weekend getaway, in Clearwater Bay Community.

17. 2026-03-14
    listed $189,500 Active 889-char remark

    Show marketing remark (889 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 2 bath home located in Clearwater Bay at Cedar Creek Lake offers a comfortable open layout and peaceful surroundings. The spacious living area features large windows that bring in natural light and provide relaxing views of the outdoors. The kitchen includes generous cabinet space and a breakfast bar that opens to the living area ideal for gathering with family and friends. With durable tile flooring throughout and two full bathrooms, the home is both practical and easy to maintain. Step outside to enjoy a large backyard offering plenty of space for entertaining, gardening, pets, or simple relaxing. Mature shade trees. Located just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake, this home provides easy access to boating, fishing, and lakeside recreation while still offering a quite retreat. A great opportunity for a full-time home, weekend getaway, in Clearwater Bay Community.

18. 2023-08-11
    soldstatus Closed 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Really cute 2 bedroom 2 bath lake neighborhood home with two lots. New privacy fence around large back yard. New roof was installed in 2018. This is a great first time home and close to Cedar Creek Lake

19. 2023-08-11
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Really cute 2 bedroom 2 bath lake neighborhood home with two lots. New privacy fence around large back yard. New roof was installed in 2018. This is a great first time home and close to Cedar Creek Lake

20. 2023-07-31
    status Pending 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Really cute 2 bedroom 2 bath lake neighborhood home with two lots. New privacy fence around large back yard. New roof was installed in 2018. This is a great first time home and close to Cedar Creek Lake

21. 2023-07-19
    historical

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Really cute 2 bedroom 2 bath lake neighborhood home with two lots. New privacy fence around large back yard. New roof was installed in 2018. This is a great first time home and close to Cedar Creek Lake

22. 2023-07-19
    historical Active Option Contract 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Really cute 2 bedroom 2 bath lake neighborhood home with two lots. New privacy fence around large back yard. New roof was installed in 2018. This is a great first time home and close to Cedar Creek Lake

23. 2023-05-22
    listed $199,500 Active 203-char remark

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Really cute 2 bedroom 2 bath lake neighborhood home with two lots. New privacy fence around large back yard. New roof was installed in 2018. This is a great first time home and close to Cedar Creek Lake

24. 2023-05-22
    listed $199,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (203 chars)

    Really cute 2 bedroom 2 bath lake neighborhood home with two lots. New privacy fence around large back yard. New roof was installed in 2018. This is a great first time home and close to Cedar Creek Lake

25. 2020-03-09
    soldstatus Sold
26. 2020-03-09
    soldstatus
27. 2020-02-09
    status Pending
28. 2020-02-03
    price $119,900
29. 2020-01-23
    listed $119,900
30. 2020-01-22
    listed $129,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,554 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,285 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$731/yr (+$61/mo · 28.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,055
• − Property taxes: −$2,554
• − Insurance: −$898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − HOA: −$7,644
• − Depreciation: −$5,222
• Taxable loss: −$2,180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$523
• After-tax cash flow: $884/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Malakoff ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828780
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,970
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3200
• State rank: #187 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caney City

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1562
• US rank: #26636

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,944

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.76%
• Current HPI: 217.1629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $184,500 HCBOR
• 2026-03-14 Listed $189,500 HCBOR
• 2023-08-11 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2023-08-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-07-31 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-07-19 Delisted — HCBOR
• 2023-07-19 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-05-22 Listed $199,500 HCBOR
• 2023-05-22 Listed $199,500 NTREIS
• 2020-03-09 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2020-03-09 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-02-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-02-03 Price Changed $119,900 NTREIS
• 2020-01-23 Listed $119,900 HCBOR
• 2020-01-22 Listed $129,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,554 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.