3003 Mary Dr · Pine Bluff, AR 71603

$82,800

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,789 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1974 0.94 ac lot $46/sqft · 47% below area Est $152k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this great 4 bedroom 2 bath home featuring large living room with beamed ceilings and wood stove, kitchen/dining combo, 2 car garage with storage room, enclosed patio, fenced back yard with storage bldg. HUD Owned Property, Case #031-575490, agents please READ confidential remarks for showing instructions and offer submission information.

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Fenced back yard
• Beamed ceilings

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• BEAMED CEILINGS
• WOOD STOVE
• KITCHEN DINING COMBO
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• FENCED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $421 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 9.0% in Pine Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Watson Chapel School District (urban): math 10% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #228 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $572 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,832 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.78%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,164
• List price: $82,800
• Delta: -45.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7200 Nell Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,908 (+7%)	3mo	$182,500	$96	76
2902 Mary Dr	0.13mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,992 (+11%)	16mo	$195,000	$98	53
6807 Wilhelmina Cv	0.38mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,990 (+11%)	4mo	$185,000	$93	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $13,402
• Equity at exit: $12,346

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $46,258
• Equity at exit: $7,159

Cash invested: $23,184 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71603

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$434
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,247/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $725

Max offer price $82,800

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,700
• Closing costs: $2,484
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,800 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $82,800 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $82,800 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $82,800 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $82,800 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $82,800 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $82,800 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $82,800 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-05-05
   price $82,800 358-char remark

   Show marketing remark (358 chars)

   Don't miss out on this great 4 bedroom 2 bath home featuring large living room with beamed ceilings and wood stove, kitchen/dining combo, 2 car garage with storage room, enclosed patio, fenced back yard with storage bldg. HUD Owned Property, Case #031-575490, agents please READ confidential remarks for showing instructions and offer submission information.

10. 2026-03-20
    listed $90,000 New Listing 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Don't miss out on this great 4 bedroom 2 bath home featuring large living room with beamed ceilings and wood stove, kitchen/dining combo, 2 car garage with storage room, enclosed patio, fenced back yard with storage bldg. HUD Owned Property, Case #031-575490, agents please READ confidential remarks for showing instructions and offer submission information.

11. 2025-10-25
    historical
12. 2025-09-24
    listed $140,000 New Listing
13. 2025-08-29
    historical
14. 2025-07-03
    price $135,000
15. 2025-05-21
    price $140,000
16. 2025-04-30
    status Back on Market
17. 2025-04-29
    historical
18. 2024-11-22
    listed $183,600 New Listing
19. 2022-10-14
    soldstatus $161,000 Sold
20. 2022-10-14
    soldstatus $161,000
21. 2022-09-14
    historical Take Backups
22. 2022-09-12
    listed $159,000 New Listing
23. 2008-04-01
    soldstatus $96,000
24. 2008-03-28
    soldstatus $95,500
25. 2008-03-11
    historical
26. 2007-11-27
    listed $104,500
27. 1998-12-31
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,247 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,247 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,638
• − Property taxes: −$1,247
• − Insurance: −$414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$2,409
• Taxable income: $3,968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$952
• After-tax cash flow: $4,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watson Chapel School District
• NCES district ID: 0513930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,521
• Composite: 9.55/100
• National rank: #9845
• State rank: #228 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pine Bluff

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #25645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Bluff, AR
• County: Jefferson County · 29,578 people
• City population: 29,578
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,578
• Household income: $53,130
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 33% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.43%
• Current HPI: 206.5994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+136.6% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $82,800 CARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $90,000 CARMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $140,000 CARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $135,000 CARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $140,000 CARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-11-22 Listed $183,600 CARMLS
• 2022-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $161,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-14 Sold (MLS) $161,000 CARMLS
• 2022-09-14 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2022-09-12 Listed $159,000 CARMLS
• 2008-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2008-03-28 Sold (MLS) $95,500 CARMLS
• 2008-03-11 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2007-11-27 Listed $104,500 CARMLS
• 1998-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,247 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.