250 Horseshoe Bend Rd · Rogersville, TN 37857

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Other public records · 141 Days on market

Built 2000 1.57 ac lot $101/sqft · 38% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * Cash deal only * * * This beautiful as-is fixer-upper is a 2000 model doublewide featuring several added structures that provide generous space for a growing family. Nestled on a quiet, wooded lot directly across the street from Cherokee Lake, the property offers a peaceful country setting with beautiful natural surroundings. The home provides flexibility for the next owner--you may continue improving and customizing the existing additions, or remove them to return the property to its original doublewide layout. Surrounded by mature trees, this property delivers privacy and tranquility while still being conveniently located near shopping, medical facilities, and historic downtown Rogersville. This is a great opportunity to create your own retreat in a desirable area of Hawkins County. Please note, the current owners are unsure whether the home is considered a permanent structure.

Key facts

• Cherokee lake
• Wooded lot
• Added structures

Tags

• FIXER-UPPER
• DOUBLEWIDE
• ADDED STRUCTURES
• WOODED LOT
• CHEROKEE LAKE
• COUNTRY SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.8% in Rogersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#168 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 209 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $120k implies a 301% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.34%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $259,208
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -53.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $36,931
• Equity at exit: $58,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $100,626
• Equity at exit: $93,405

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37857

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 209
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $244/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $886

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $358	-5% $324	+0% $290	+5% $118	+10% $77
Rent	-10% $191	-5% $240	+0% $290	+5% $339	+10% $389
Rate	-1.0pp $350	-0.5pp $320	base $290	+0.5pp $258	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $120,000 Pending 141 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $120,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   * * * Cash deal only * * * This beautiful as-is fixer-upper is a 2000 model doublewide featuring several added structures that provide generous space for a growing family. Nestled on a quiet, wooded lot directly across the street from Cherokee Lake, the property offers a peaceful country setting with beautiful natural surroundings. The home provides flexibility for the next owner--you may continue improving and customizing the existing additions, or remove them to return the property to its original doublewide layout. Surrounded by mature trees, this property delivers privacy and tranquility while still being conveniently located near shopping, medical facilities, and historic downtown Rogersville. This is a great opportunity to create your own retreat in a desirable area of Hawkins County. Please note, the current owners are unsure whether the home is considered a permanent structure.

4. 2026-05-04
   status Active 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   * * * Cash deal only * * * This beautiful as-is fixer-upper is a 2000 model doublewide featuring several added structures that provide generous space for a growing family. Nestled on a quiet, wooded lot directly across the street from Cherokee Lake, the property offers a peaceful country setting with beautiful natural surroundings. The home provides flexibility for the next owner--you may continue improving and customizing the existing additions, or remove them to return the property to its original doublewide layout. Surrounded by mature trees, this property delivers privacy and tranquility while still being conveniently located near shopping, medical facilities, and historic downtown Rogersville. This is a great opportunity to create your own retreat in a desirable area of Hawkins County. Please note, the current owners are unsure whether the home is considered a permanent structure.

5. 2026-04-30
   status Pending 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   * * * Cash deal only * * * This beautiful as-is fixer-upper is a 2000 model doublewide featuring several added structures that provide generous space for a growing family. Nestled on a quiet, wooded lot directly across the street from Cherokee Lake, the property offers a peaceful country setting with beautiful natural surroundings. The home provides flexibility for the next owner--you may continue improving and customizing the existing additions, or remove them to return the property to its original doublewide layout. Surrounded by mature trees, this property delivers privacy and tranquility while still being conveniently located near shopping, medical facilities, and historic downtown Rogersville. This is a great opportunity to create your own retreat in a desirable area of Hawkins County. Please note, the current owners are unsure whether the home is considered a permanent structure.

6. 2026-04-22
   price $120,000 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   * * * Cash deal only * * * This beautiful as-is fixer-upper is a 2000 model doublewide featuring several added structures that provide generous space for a growing family. Nestled on a quiet, wooded lot directly across the street from Cherokee Lake, the property offers a peaceful country setting with beautiful natural surroundings. The home provides flexibility for the next owner--you may continue improving and customizing the existing additions, or remove them to return the property to its original doublewide layout. Surrounded by mature trees, this property delivers privacy and tranquility while still being conveniently located near shopping, medical facilities, and historic downtown Rogersville. This is a great opportunity to create your own retreat in a desirable area of Hawkins County. Please note, the current owners are unsure whether the home is considered a permanent structure.

7. 2026-01-05
   listed $175,000 Active 902-char remark

   Show marketing remark (902 chars)

   * * * Cash deal only * * * This beautiful as-is fixer-upper is a 2000 model doublewide featuring several added structures that provide generous space for a growing family. Nestled on a quiet, wooded lot directly across the street from Cherokee Lake, the property offers a peaceful country setting with beautiful natural surroundings. The home provides flexibility for the next owner--you may continue improving and customizing the existing additions, or remove them to return the property to its original doublewide layout. Surrounded by mature trees, this property delivers privacy and tranquility while still being conveniently located near shopping, medical facilities, and historic downtown Rogersville. This is a great opportunity to create your own retreat in a desirable area of Hawkins County. Please note, the current owners are unsure whether the home is considered a permanent structure.

8. 2017-11-01
   soldstatus $29,900 100-char remark

   Show marketing remark (100 chars)

   This DW needs repairs. It is a fixer upper. Dogs present. Tenant. Call listing agent about showings.

9. 2017-08-29
   listed $29,900 100-char remark

   Show marketing remark (100 chars)

   This DW needs repairs. It is a fixer upper. Dogs present. Tenant. Call listing agent about showings.

10. 2000-01-21
    soldstatus $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $244 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$608/yr (+$51/mo · 249.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$244
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,202
• − Management: −$1,202
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,565
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$376
• After-tax cash flow: $3,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins County
• NCES district ID: 4701740
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,555
• Composite: 20.45/100
• National rank: #8581
• State rank: #93 of 139 in TN

Livability — Rogersville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #14424

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,425

Population outlook (Hawkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,226 people
• By 2030: 53,784 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 50,015 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 45,682 · -17.3%
• By 2075: 36,211 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 26,536 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+63.4 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 331.2027
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+64.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — TVRMLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $120,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $175,000 TVRMLS
• 2017-11-01 Sold (MLS) $29,900 TVRMLS
• 2017-08-29 Listed $29,900 TVRMLS
• 2000-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $244 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.