409 E 2nd Ave · Truth or Consequences, NM 87901

$130,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,663 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1940

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 409 E. 2nd Ave! This charming three-bedroom, two-bathroom home offers a perfect blend of comfort and functionality in a cozy, well-designed space. The exterior is finished in nice white paint with black accents and black roof, giving it a modern look. Front covered porch with tile is 12x7, allows room to add chairs to enjoy mornings and afternoons. Natural light streams through great window placement creating a bright and welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen is compact yet modern, with stylish cabinetry and sleek countertops. Each bedroom is comfortably sized, ideal for a growing family, guests, or even a home office. The primary bedroom includes an en-suite bathroom for added priv

Key facts

• Stylish cabinetry
• Front covered porch
• Amazing views

Tags

• FRONT COVERED PORCH
• NATURAL LIGHT
• STYLISH CABINETRY
• SLEEK COUNTERTOPS
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• AMAZING VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (0.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#60 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• T Or C Municipal Schools (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #29 of 29 in NM (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sierra County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,050 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.16%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,189
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $7,244
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87901

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,233/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,062

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $224	+0% $187	+5% $150	+10% $113
Rent	-10% $84	-5% $135	+0% $187	+5% $238	+10% $289
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $220	base $187	+0.5pp $153	+1.0pp $119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $130,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-01
    listed $130,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,233
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,246
• − Management: −$1,246
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $137
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$33
• After-tax cash flow: $2,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: T Or C Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502610
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $28,449
• Composite: 20.0/100
• National rank: #8666
• State rank: #29 of 29 in NM

Livability — Truth or Consequences

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #13470

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Truth or Consequences, NM
• Population (ZIP): 6,459

Population outlook (Sierra County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,498 people
• By 2030: 8,580 · -9.7%
• By 2040: 6,994 · -26.4%
• By 2050: 5,914 · -37.7%
• By 2075: 4,083 · -57.0%
• By 2100: 2,499 · -73.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sierra

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 39.2% · R 58.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -12.1pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+21.5 2016: R+27.2 2012: R+18.9 2008: R+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.64%
• Current HPI: 118.3055
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+75.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $130,000 FSBO.com
• 2022-11-07 Price Changed $74,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,233 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.