Beeville Plan · Montgomery, TX 77356

$477,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Good condition Garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Cash flow +0.8/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Beeville floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Walden Creek delights discerning Homeowners and first-time Homebuyers alike. Start each day refreshed in the Owner's Retreat, which includes a large walk-in closet and a serene Owner's Bath. The open family and dining spaces provide a splendid setting for special celebrations and enjoying your day-to-day life to the fullest. Two secondary bedrooms share a bathroom and make great places for growing residents and home offices. A step-in pantry, center island and open sight lines contribute to the culinary layout of the contemporary kitchen. The 3-car garage, open study and covered porch bring added lifestyle versatility to this floor plan.

Key facts

• Step-in pantry
• Owner's bath
• Open sight lines

Tags

• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• OWNER'S BATH
• OPEN FAMILY AND DINING SPACES
• STEP-IN PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• OPEN SIGHT LINES

🏗️ New construction. The $477,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $586,167.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $478k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (52.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (58.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (58.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1764 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($421k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,842 (58.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.34% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.13%
• DSCR: 0.19
• GRM: 24.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $586,167
• List price: $477,990
• Delta: -18.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
503 Pine View Cir	0.90mi	3/2.5	2,494 (+2%)	4mo	$399,900	$160	59
18848 Harbor Side Blvd	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,751 (+12%)	6mo	$824,900	$300	56
294 Peninsula Point Dr	0.97mi	3/3.5	2,485 (+1%)	5mo	$359,990	$145	54
44 La Costa Dr	0.91mi	3/2.5	2,287 (-7%)	2mo	$835,000	$365	52
11545 Grand Pine Dr	0.78mi	3/2.5	2,344 (-4%)	6mo	$584,990	$250	52
18890 Serene Water Dr	0.87mi	3/2.5	2,339 (-4%)	6mo	$499,900	$214	52
11726 W Grand Pond Dr	0.97mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,585 (+6%)	1mo	$699,000	$270	50
423 Cape Conroe Dr	1.06mi	3/2.5	2,148 (-12%)	3mo	$395,000	$184	42
18854 Lake Terrace Dr	0.74mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,584 (+6%)	4mo	$579,900	$224	42
11345 Grand Harbor Blvd	0.78mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,660 (+9%)	8mo	$549,000	$206	37
73 La Jolla Cir	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,935 (+20%)	7mo	$549,900	$187	36
18988 Ocean Mist Ct	0.90mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,898 (+18%)	7mo	$580,000	$200	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -55.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-258,735
• Equity at exit: $87,399

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.75×
• Total profit: $-451,090
• Equity at exit: $50,681

Cash invested: $164,127 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 68 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 68.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $466,900 ($192/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1764
• Price-to-rent: 20.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,988 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,074
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$733 /mo · $8,792/yr
• Insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-2,480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,128

Max offer price $227,305

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,075	-5% $-2,277	+0% $-2,480	+5% $-2,683	+10% $-2,885
Rent	-10% $-2,637	-5% $-2,559	+0% $-2,480	+5% $-2,401	+10% $-2,323
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,185	-0.5pp $-2,331	base $-2,480	+0.5pp $-2,632	+1.0pp $-2,786

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $146,542
• Closing costs: $17,585
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9913 Crescent Cove Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1805	$1,799	$1.00	0d	19	0.42mi
47 Presidio Rd Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	2059	$2,300	$1.12	153d	1	1.04mi
15 Presidio Rd Unit Labs Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1814	$1,840	$1.01	23d	1	1.07mi
15 Presidio Rd Unit Labs Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1814	$1,750	$0.96	10d	1	1.07mi
318 Lazy Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,745	$0.97	100d	1	1.14mi
223 Fantasy Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,995	$1.09	110d	1	1.34mi
10707 Scenic Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,550	$0.90	41d	1	1.44mi
606 Moonwalk St Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1641	$1,714	$1.04	56d	1	1.48mi
311 Lake View Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1706	$1,685	$0.99	2d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Montgomery, TX 77356
• Financial info: Listed for $497,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage/parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan named BeevilleSingle-family home (plan inventory)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (modification timestamp May 23, 2026)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2450 (area provided)

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not specified)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $477,990 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $477,990 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $477,990 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $477,990 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $477,990 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $477,990 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $477,990 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $477,990 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $477,990 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $477,990 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $477,990 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $477,990 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $477,990 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $477,990 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $477,990 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $477,990 Active 153 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $477,990 Active 152 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $477,990 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $477,990 Active 150 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $477,990 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $477,990 Active 148 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $477,990 Active 147 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $477,990 Active 146 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $477,990 Active 145 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $477,990 Active 144 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $477,990 Active 143 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $477,990 Active 142 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $477,990 Active 141 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $477,990 Active 140 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $477,990 Active 139 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $477,990 Active 138 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $477,990 Active 137 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $477,990 Active 136 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $477,990 Active 135 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $477,990 Active 134 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $477,990 Active 133 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $477,990 Active 132 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $477,990 Active 131 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $477,990 Active 130 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $477,990 Active 129 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $477,990 Active 128 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $477,990 Active 127 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $477,990 Active 126 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $477,990 Active 125 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $477,990 Active 124 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $477,990 Active 123 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $477,990 Active 122 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $477,990 Active 121 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $477,990 Active 120 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $477,990 Active 119 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,834
• − Property taxes: −$8,792
• − Insurance: −$2,931
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,909
• − Management: −$1,909
• − Depreciation: −$17,052
• Taxable loss: −$41,567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,976
• After-tax cash flow: $-19,784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters, with minor updates that could significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by enhancing convenience and energy efficiency. ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stewart Creek El C TX #686/4,322 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

---

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Montgomery, TX 77356
• Financial info: Listed for $497,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 garage/parking spaces
• Home design: New construction plan named BeevilleSingle-family home (plan inventory)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (modification timestamp May 23, 2026)
• Exterior features: Living area of 2450 (area provided)

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open plan living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not specified)