221 Yellowstone · West Livingston, TX 77351

$129,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 897 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1985 10,001 sqft lot $145/sqft · 47% below area Est $244k · 47% under $75/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home located in the well sought after Indian Hills Estates. This property offers comfortable living with a functional layout and plenty of storage. Outside, you'll find a detached two-car garage with restroom-perfect for vehicles, a workshop, or extra storage-plus an additional carport for covered parking or entertainment. The yard provides ample room to relax, garden, or entertain as well. This property would make a great primary residence, rental investment, or weekend retreat. All offers will be considered.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.5% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,056 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.54%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,528
• List price: $129,999
• Delta: -46.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
663 Indian Hill Blvd	0.34mi	1/— (-1)	912 (+2%)	10mo	$160,000	$175	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-27,806
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-32,644
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,457/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,286

Max offer price $111,056

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,999 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,999 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,999 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,999 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $129,999 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,999 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,999 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,999 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,999 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-04-14
    price $149,999 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home located in the well sought after Indian Hills Estates. This property offers comfortable living with a functional layout and plenty of storage. Outside, you'll find a detached two-car garage with restroom-perfect for vehicles, a workshop, or extra storage-plus an additional carport for covered parking or entertainment. The yard provides ample room to relax, garden, or entertain as well. This property would make a great primary residence, rental investment, or weekend retreat. All offers will be considered.

14. 2026-03-02
    status Active 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home located in the well sought after Indian Hills Estates. This property offers comfortable living with a functional layout and plenty of storage. Outside, you'll find a detached two-car garage with restroom-perfect for vehicles, a workshop, or extra storage-plus an additional carport for covered parking or entertainment. The yard provides ample room to relax, garden, or entertain as well. This property would make a great primary residence, rental investment, or weekend retreat. All offers will be considered.

15. 2026-02-23
    listed $159,999 Active 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home located in the well sought after Indian Hills Estates. This property offers comfortable living with a functional layout and plenty of storage. Outside, you'll find a detached two-car garage with restroom-perfect for vehicles, a workshop, or extra storage-plus an additional carport for covered parking or entertainment. The yard provides ample room to relax, garden, or entertain as well. This property would make a great primary residence, rental investment, or weekend retreat. All offers will be considered.

16. 2026-02-23
    historical 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Charming 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home located in the well sought after Indian Hills Estates. This property offers comfortable living with a functional layout and plenty of storage. Outside, you'll find a detached two-car garage with restroom-perfect for vehicles, a workshop, or extra storage-plus an additional carport for covered parking or entertainment. The yard provides ample room to relax, garden, or entertain as well. This property would make a great primary residence, rental investment, or weekend retreat. All offers will be considered.

17. 2008-11-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,457 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,457 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,457
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$3,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$835
• After-tax cash flow: $-452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $149,999 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $159,999 HARMLS
• 2008-11-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,457 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.