11291 N State Highway 309 · Havana, AR 72842

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 90 Days on market

Built 1983 2.00 ac lot Est $60k · 25% over ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Country home on 2 acres with 2 bed and 1 bath. Some outbuildings for storage plus a beautiful view from the front deck. Close to Mt. Magazine and Blue Mt. Lake with hiking, fishing, side by side rides available and much more. Close to town for shopping and medical needs. A must see of this beautiful piece of property.

Key facts

• Close to town
• 2 acres
• Close to mt magazine

Tags

• 2 ACRES
• OUTBUILDINGS FOR STORAGE
• CLOSE TO MT MAGAZINE
• CLOSE TO BLUE MT LAKE
• CLOSE TO TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($868 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#430 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Western Yell County School District (rural): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #214 of 238 in AR (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Yell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Yell County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.58%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,060
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11291 N State Highway 309	0.00mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	1mo	$60,000	$65	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $19,724
• Equity at exit: $33,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $55,282
• Equity at exit: $51,972

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72842

• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $868 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $194	+0% $168	+5% $142	+10% $116
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $133	+0% $168	+5% $202	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $205	-0.5pp $187	base $168	+0.5pp $148	+1.0pp $128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   price $75,000
3. 2026-01-14
   listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥113°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,419
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$834
• − Management: −$834
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $869
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$209
• After-tax cash flow: $1,803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Yell County School District
• NCES district ID: 0500041
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $41,665
• Composite: 16.28/100
• National rank: #9214
• State rank: #214 of 238 in AR

Livability — Havana

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #24199

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing F Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,000

Population outlook (Yell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,438 people
• By 2030: 19,561 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 17,654 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 15,569 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 10,746 · -47.4%
• By 2100: 6,907 · -66.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.7) · D 18.7% · R 79.5% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.8pp toward R · 2008: -29.9pp · 2024: -60.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.7 2020: R+58.5 2016: R+49.0 2012: R+38.9 2008: R+29.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $75,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $85,000 NWARMLS