521 46th St · Lubbock, TX 79404

$59,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1970 6,600 sqft lot $73/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 6,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 143 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($880 rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.77%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,980
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -55.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $26,038
• Equity at exit: $27,274

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $66,332
• Equity at exit: $42,622

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $906/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $518

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $303	+0% $286	+5% $269	+10% $253
Rent	-10% $216	-5% $251	+0% $286	+5% $321	+10% $356
Rate	-1.0pp $316	-0.5pp $301	base $286	+0.5pp $271	+1.0pp $255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4511 Avenue G Unit G Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	528	$750	$1.42	14d	1	0.05mi
703 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	821	$750	$0.91	21d	1	0.06mi
705 47th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	821	$750	$0.91	21d	1	0.06mi
529 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$875	$0.80	14d	1	0.08mi
519 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	14d	1	0.09mi
713 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	21d	1	0.09mi
519 42nd St Apt A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1092	$895	$0.82	14d	1	0.27mi
220 44th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$910	$0.93	14d	1	0.30mi
1107 45th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	728	$850	$1.17	44d	1	0.32mi
1119 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	704	$595	$0.85	21d	1	0.37mi
1102 42nd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	574	$495	$0.86	21d	1	0.41mi
1101 52nd St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	721	$850	$1.18	21d	1	0.46mi
512 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$849	$0.97	14d	1	0.48mi
609 38th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	660	$550	$0.83	44d	1	0.51mi
5512 Avenue G Unit G Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1117	$1,000	$0.90	44d	1	0.60mi
1307 53rd St Unit 1307 C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$695	$0.92	44d	1	0.61mi
1317 52nd St Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$650	$0.86	21d	1	0.61mi
1316 53rd St Apt D Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$695	$0.92	44d	1	0.61mi
1312 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	940	$795	$0.85	21d	1	0.63mi
1310 54th St Unit 3 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	684	$575	$0.84	44d	1	0.63mi
332 37th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	725	$700	$0.97	21d	1	0.65mi
330 37th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	14d	1	0.65mi
1604 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$650	$0.93	44d	1	0.68mi
1511 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	648	$800	$1.23	44d	1	0.68mi
1610 45th St Unit 14 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$895	$1.63	44d	1	0.70mi
211 36th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	44d	1	0.72mi
209 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	44d	1	0.72mi
1204 36th St Unit b Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$835	$0.96	14d	1	0.76mi
1710 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$595	$0.83	14d	1	0.84mi
1717 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	830	$775	$0.93	21d	1	0.87mi
505 E 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,125	$1.17	14d	1	0.87mi
1718 46th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	655	$695	$1.06	44d	1	0.88mi
1712 42nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	899	$695	$0.77	21d	1	0.91mi
1610 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	44d	1	0.99mi
1612 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	44d	1	1.00mi
1614 58th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	44d	1	1.00mi
1618 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	44d	1	1.02mi
1608 59th St Unit 3 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	800	$575	$0.72	44d	1	1.03mi
1307 61st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,150	$1.07	14d	1	1.06mi
3104 Avenue N Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$785	$1.05	21d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 143 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 142 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 141 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 140 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $59,000 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-01-26
    listed $59,000 Active
18. 2019-04-11
    soldstatus
19. 2017-12-27
    soldstatus
20. 2017-01-09
    soldstatus
21. 2011-07-06
    soldstatus
22. 2011-06-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $906 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$173/yr (+$14/mo · 19.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$906
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$845
• − Management: −$845
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $2,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$636
• After-tax cash flow: $2,796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $59,000 LARMLS
• 2019-04-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $906 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.