21515 4th St · Keyesport, IL 62253

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 53 Days on market

Built 1995 5.00 ac lot $115/sqft · 15% below area Est $164k · 15% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on approximately 5 acres of mature trees and natural privacy, this property offers a unique opportunity just minutes from Carlyle Lake. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity, the setting alone is hard to replicate. The home is currently classified as a 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom, with renovations in progress to convert the layout into a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home. Recent updates include newer flooring throughout much of the home, along with ongoing improvements that provide a strong foundation for completing the space to your own style and preferences. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with spacious living areas and a large pri

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1995

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 5-acre lot

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with space for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected (other/electric service); Propane (owned); Water connected
• Home design: One-level manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Aluminum roof
• Exterior features: Heavy woods on the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Range hood; Built-in gas range; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-400/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,306 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Carlyle CUSD 1 (town): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #351 of 620 in IL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Carlyle High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #319 of 693 statewide, top 50%, 282 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 38% district-wide (38 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $102,947 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,178
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -14.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $36,918
• Equity at exit: $86,571

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $110,490
• Equity at exit: $155,819

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62253

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $656/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-33

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,072

Max offer price $134,013

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $6	+0% $-33	+5% $-73	+10% $-113
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-74	+0% $-33	+5% $7	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $2	base $-33	+0.5pp $-70	+1.0pp $-106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    listed $149,900 Active 1329-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,916 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,260/yr (+$105/mo · 192.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$656
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$988
• − Management: −$988
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,885
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$692
• After-tax cash flow: $292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlyle CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1708460
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $50,003
• Composite: 21.18/100
• National rank: #8421
• State rank: #351 of 620 in IL

Livability — Keyesport

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1306
• US rank: #24800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 923

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,663 people
• By 2030: 37,194 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 35,566 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 32,950 · -12.5%
• By 2075: 26,403 · -29.9%
• By 2100: 19,267 · -48.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.1% · R 75.0% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.0pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+49.0 2012: R+30.0 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.84%
• Current HPI: 161.2494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $656 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.