4211 False Cypress Ln · Houston, TX 77068

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,001 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 459 Days on market

Built 2015 5,728 sqft lot $127/sqft · 17% below area Est $306k · 17% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vinyl flooring throughout - installed 8/25. AC installed 11/25. Welcome to this spacious one story you can call home! Kitchen, dining & living area all open for entraining family & friends! Three bedrooms with two bathrooms, both bathrooms have double sinks with tub/shower combo. Primary bedroom has en-suite bathroom. Media room can be used as another living area, study or another bedroom. Fully fenced in backyard with sprinkler system.

Key facts

• En-suite bathroom
• Sprinkler system
• Media room

Tags

• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• MEDIA ROOM
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-440 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (30.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pat Reynolds El (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 836 students, 86% FRL); Edwin M Wells Middle (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 907 students, 89% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 66% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 459 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask is 14067% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,226 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 459 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.40%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,300
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -16.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14347 Persimmon Woods Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,039 (+2%)	2mo	$299,990	$147	80
4106 Fernglade Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,945 (-3%)	2mo	$285,000	$147	79
14926 Croftwood Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,052 (+2%)	4mo	$260,000	$127	63
4611 Prairie Chase Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,064 (+3%)	4mo	$279,990	$136	56
15110 Falling Creek Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,096 (+5%)	3mo	$299,000	$143	54
14323 Galiant Run Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,735 (-13%)	4mo	$280,000	$161	54
4731 N Cashel Cir	0.57mi	3/2.5	2,222 (+11%)	1mo	$249,000	$112	53
14522 Overland Hollow Dr	0.56mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,128 (+6%)	5mo	$299,900	$141	50
14041 Cashel Forest Dr	0.63mi	3/2.5	2,222 (+11%)	3mo	$225,000	$101	48
4726 Cashel Castle Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,250 (+12%)	1mo	$135,200	$60	43
14205 Cashel Forest Dr	0.63mi	3/3.0	2,268 (+13%)	2mo	$299,900	$132	43
4703 Fountainhead Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,263 (+13%)	4mo	$276,900	$122	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-59,829
• Equity at exit: $47,954

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-79,141
• Equity at exit: $39,493

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77068

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$534 /mo · $6,407/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,571

Max offer price $177,226

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-296	-5% $-368	+0% $-440	+5% $-512	+10% $-585
Rent	-10% $-599	-5% $-520	+0% $-440	+5% $-361	+10% $-281
Rate	-1.0pp $-312	-0.5pp $-375	base $-440	+0.5pp $-506	+1.0pp $-574

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4703 Cashel Cir Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1722	$1,950	$1.13	20d	1	0.49mi
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	45d	1	0.70mi
12820 Greenwood Forest Dr Unit 525 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,844	$1.26	0d	1	0.89mi
12820 Greenwood Forest Dr Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,895	$1.30	0d	1	0.89mi
12820 Greenwood Forest Dr Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,884	$1.29	4d	1	0.89mi
4807 Wellington Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	45d	1	0.93mi
14515 Wunderlich Dr Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1526	$1,800	$1.18	22d	4	1.00mi
12801 Champion Forest Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1039	$1,477	$1.42	0d	15	1.38mi
4203 Stonehenge Trl Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,811	$1.21	14d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $255,000 Active 459 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $255,000 Active 456 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $255,000 Active 455 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $255,000 Active 454 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $255,000 Active 453 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 451 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $255,000 Active 450 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 447 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 446 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $255,000 Active 445 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 442 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 441 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,000 Active 440 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,000 Active 439 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 438 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    price $255,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Vinyl flooring throughout - installed 8/25. AC installed 11/25. Welcome to this spacious one story you can call home! Kitchen, dining & living area all open for entraining family & friends! Three bedrooms with two bathrooms, both bathrooms have double sinks with tub/shower combo. Primary bedroom has en-suite bathroom. Media room can be used as another living area, study or another bedroom. Fully fenced in backyard with sprinkler system.

17. 2026-03-11
    price $265,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Vinyl flooring throughout - installed 8/25. AC installed 11/25. Welcome to this spacious one story you can call home! Kitchen, dining & living area all open for entraining family & friends! Three bedrooms with two bathrooms, both bathrooms have double sinks with tub/shower combo. Primary bedroom has en-suite bathroom. Media room can be used as another living area, study or another bedroom. Fully fenced in backyard with sprinkler system.

18. 2026-02-20
    price $270,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Vinyl flooring throughout - installed 8/25. AC installed 11/25. Welcome to this spacious one story you can call home! Kitchen, dining & living area all open for entraining family & friends! Three bedrooms with two bathrooms, both bathrooms have double sinks with tub/shower combo. Primary bedroom has en-suite bathroom. Media room can be used as another living area, study or another bedroom. Fully fenced in backyard with sprinkler system.

19. 2026-01-07
    price $275,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Vinyl flooring throughout - installed 8/25. AC installed 11/25. Welcome to this spacious one story you can call home! Kitchen, dining & living area all open for entraining family & friends! Three bedrooms with two bathrooms, both bathrooms have double sinks with tub/shower combo. Primary bedroom has en-suite bathroom. Media room can be used as another living area, study or another bedroom. Fully fenced in backyard with sprinkler system.

20. 2025-09-03
    historical $1,800
21. 2025-08-28
    listed $1,800
22. 2025-05-24
    price $280,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Vinyl flooring throughout - installed 8/25. AC installed 11/25. Welcome to this spacious one story you can call home! Kitchen, dining & living area all open for entraining family & friends! Three bedrooms with two bathrooms, both bathrooms have double sinks with tub/shower combo. Primary bedroom has en-suite bathroom. Media room can be used as another living area, study or another bedroom. Fully fenced in backyard with sprinkler system.

23. 2025-03-19
    listed $290,000 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Vinyl flooring throughout - installed 8/25. AC installed 11/25. Welcome to this spacious one story you can call home! Kitchen, dining & living area all open for entraining family & friends! Three bedrooms with two bathrooms, both bathrooms have double sinks with tub/shower combo. Primary bedroom has en-suite bathroom. Media room can be used as another living area, study or another bedroom. Fully fenced in backyard with sprinkler system.

24. 2025-03-14
    historical $1,899
25. 2025-01-23
    listed $1,899
26. 2025-01-23
    historical $1,900
27. 2025-01-17
    listed $1,900
28. 2025-01-17
    historical $2,000
29. 2024-12-18
    listed $2,000
30. 2023-12-22
    soldstatus
31. 2015-09-14
    soldstatus Sold 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    This beautiful one-story home includes tile in the entry, vinyl in the wet areas, carpet in the living and bedrooms, and crown molding throughout. Upgraded kitchen has 42-in. oak cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances. Extended vanity w/ sink and cabinet is in the master bath and extended cabinet w/ knee space is in the secondary bath. Backyard is fenced-in and includes landscaping and pre-construction termite treatment. Call today!

32. 2015-05-26
    status Pending 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    This beautiful one-story home includes tile in the entry, vinyl in the wet areas, carpet in the living and bedrooms, and crown molding throughout. Upgraded kitchen has 42-in. oak cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances. Extended vanity w/ sink and cabinet is in the master bath and extended cabinet w/ knee space is in the secondary bath. Backyard is fenced-in and includes landscaping and pre-construction termite treatment. Call today!

33. 2015-05-22
    price $184,995 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    This beautiful one-story home includes tile in the entry, vinyl in the wet areas, carpet in the living and bedrooms, and crown molding throughout. Upgraded kitchen has 42-in. oak cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances. Extended vanity w/ sink and cabinet is in the master bath and extended cabinet w/ knee space is in the secondary bath. Backyard is fenced-in and includes landscaping and pre-construction termite treatment. Call today!

34. 2015-05-18
    listed $189,995 Active 459-char remark

    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    This beautiful one-story home includes tile in the entry, vinyl in the wet areas, carpet in the living and bedrooms, and crown molding throughout. Upgraded kitchen has 42-in. oak cabinets, granite countertops, and stainless steel appliances. Extended vanity w/ sink and cabinet is in the master bath and extended cabinet w/ knee space is in the secondary bath. Backyard is fenced-in and includes landscaping and pre-construction termite treatment. Call today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,407 · $534/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,407 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$6,407
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,934
• − Management: −$1,934
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$9,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,335
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 12,289

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 35% Black 31% White 23% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 28% Vietnamese 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.14%
• Current HPI: 206.5475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+34.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-14 Rental Removed $1,899 HARMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listed for Rent $1,899 HARMLS
• 2025-01-23 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed for Rent $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Rental Removed $2,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-18 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-09-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-05-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-05-22 Price Changed $184,995 HARMLS
• 2015-05-18 Listed $189,995 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,407 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.