4421 Rhine Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,421 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1966 9,500 sqft lot $137/sqft · at area comps Est $195k · at est. $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This nicely updated ranch is located in the beautiful Seven Hills subdivision. Recent updates include two remodeled bathrooms, fresh paint throughout, and several repairs that make this great home move-in ready. You will love the large living room, separate dining room, and the overall spacious interior. The bonus room with a wood-burning fireplace can be used as an additional family room, an office, or an extra sleeping area. Other features include gorgeous wood floors, vinyl windows, and modern systems. This home has very generous square footage, large rooms, lots of closet space, and a two-car garage.

Key facts

• 9,500 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1966

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($85/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $195k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,502 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.16%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,591
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 0.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4451 Rhine Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,421 (0%)	0mo	$165,000	$116	98
11962 Nero Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+1%)	1mo	$220,000	$153	83
4394 Satiris Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-8%)	1mo	$235,000	$181	80
4443 Remus Dr	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,354 (-5%)	3mo	$224,900	$166	79
4461 Rhine Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,607 (+13%)	5mo	$150,000	$93	69
4333 Caracalla Dr	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,271 (-11%)	3mo	$225,000	$177	69
11678 Galba Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-9%)	2mo	$129,900	$101	69
11636 Macrinus Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,525 (+7%)	1mo	$229,900	$151	68
11565 Mehl Ave	0.09mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,270 (-11%)	4mo	$81,000	$64	68
2325 Grassland Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,525 (+7%)	2mo	$239,000	$157	58
29 Brixworth Ct	0.66mi	3/3.0	1,280 (-10%)	4mo	$220,000	$172	45
19 Bridekirk Ct	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,624 (+14%)	1mo	$220,000	$135	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $114,657
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $356,741
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,523/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $62	+0% $7	+5% $-48	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-59	+0% $7	+5% $74	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $57	base $7	+0.5pp $-43	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	18d	1	0.40mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	3d	1	0.50mi
2745 Rottingdean Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$975	$1.18	45d	1	0.51mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,180	$0.96	0d	18	0.85mi
2544 Netherton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,945	$1.51	0d	1	0.86mi
2257 Luxmore Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	25d	1	1.09mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1561	$2,100	$1.35	0d	1	1.25mi
2259 Ainsworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,776	$1.18	45d	1	1.25mi
1670 Arundel Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	25d	1	1.26mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	9d	1	1.30mi
1536 Springlet Ct #31 Florissant, MO	3.0	2.5	1161	$1,450	$1.25	0d	1	1.30mi
1502 Summer Run Dr #108 Florissant, MO	2.0	1.5	922	$1,200	$1.30	25d	1	1.36mi
62 Capitol Hill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,250	$1.01	45d	1	1.43mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	25d	1	1.44mi
1915 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1740	$1,500	$0.86	5d	1	1.46mi
3582 Pershall Rd Unit 3631 Ferguson, MO	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,295	$0.86	45d	1	1.47mi
10304 Bon Oak Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,250	$0.83	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $195,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $202,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $202,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $202,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $202,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $202,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $202,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $202,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $202,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $202,000 Active
17. 2026-03-25
    historical $202,000
18. 2020-09-08
    soldstatus $130,000
19. 2020-08-31
    status Pending 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    This nicely updated ranch is located in the beautiful Seven Hills subdivision. Recent updates include two remodeled bathrooms, fresh paint throughout, and several repairs that make this great home move-in ready. You will love the large living room, separate dining room, and the overall spacious interior. The bonus room with a wood-burning fireplace can be used as an additional family room, an office, or an extra sleeping area. Other features include gorgeous wood floors, vinyl windows, and modern systems. This home has very generous square footage, large rooms, lots of closet space, and a two-car garage.

20. 2020-08-31
    soldstatus Closed 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    This nicely updated ranch is located in the beautiful Seven Hills subdivision. Recent updates include two remodeled bathrooms, fresh paint throughout, and several repairs that make this great home move-in ready. You will love the large living room, separate dining room, and the overall spacious interior. The bonus room with a wood-burning fireplace can be used as an additional family room, an office, or an extra sleeping area. Other features include gorgeous wood floors, vinyl windows, and modern systems. This home has very generous square footage, large rooms, lots of closet space, and a two-car garage.

21. 2020-07-30
    historical Active Under Contract 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    This nicely updated ranch is located in the beautiful Seven Hills subdivision. Recent updates include two remodeled bathrooms, fresh paint throughout, and several repairs that make this great home move-in ready. You will love the large living room, separate dining room, and the overall spacious interior. The bonus room with a wood-burning fireplace can be used as an additional family room, an office, or an extra sleeping area. Other features include gorgeous wood floors, vinyl windows, and modern systems. This home has very generous square footage, large rooms, lots of closet space, and a two-car garage.

22. 2020-07-23
    listed $137,900 Active 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    This nicely updated ranch is located in the beautiful Seven Hills subdivision. Recent updates include two remodeled bathrooms, fresh paint throughout, and several repairs that make this great home move-in ready. You will love the large living room, separate dining room, and the overall spacious interior. The bonus room with a wood-burning fireplace can be used as an additional family room, an office, or an extra sleeping area. Other features include gorgeous wood floors, vinyl windows, and modern systems. This home has very generous square footage, large rooms, lots of closet space, and a two-car garage.

23. 2000-11-27
    soldstatus $93,000
24. 1999-11-22
    soldstatus
25. 1999-11-22
    soldstatus $83,000
26. 1999-11-22
    soldstatus $83,000
27. 1987-05-01
    soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,523 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,523 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,523
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $860/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+165.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $202,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Coming Soon $202,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-31 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-31 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-30 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-07-23 Listed $137,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 1999-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,523 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.