84 Orchard Dr · South Cairo, NY 12451

$299,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1976 0.43 ac lot $304/sqft · at area comps Est $302k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in a neighborhood setting in the hamlet of South Cairo, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a comfortable layout with HW flooring and a classic brick fireplace in the living room, a full basement for storage or future possibilities, and a one-car attached garage. This well-built home sits on almost ½ acre, with a yard large enough for a garden, a pool, or outdoor entertaining on your back deck. From the front of the house you'll enjoy distant mountain views, and the location keeps you close to everything the Catskills have to offer. Several important improvements have already been completed, including a new roof installed in September 2025, replacement windows in 2020, and a new oil burner and oil tank installed in 2021. Located just four miles from the New York State Thruway, commuting is easy while still enjoying a peaceful setting. Nearby Hunter and Windham Mountains, hiking trails, restaurants, and year-round Catskills events make the location convenient for enjoying everything the region has to offer.

Key facts

• Full basement
• New oil burner
• New roof

Tags

• CLASSIC BRICK FIREPLACE
• FULL BASEMENT
• DISTANT MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• NEW ROOF
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• NEW OIL BURNER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-206 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $299k implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,000 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.95%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,578
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -0.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
271 Rte 67	0.22mi	3/1.0	912 (-7%)	7mo	$293,000	$321	72
344 County Route 67	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,074 (+9%)	23mo	$157,500	$147	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $17,551
• Equity at exit: $128,745

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $87,675
• Equity at exit: $194,090

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12451

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$330 /mo · $3,965/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,561

Max offer price $262,610

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Garcia Ln Leeds, NY	2.0	1.0	948	$2,300	$2.43	14d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $315,000 Active 1038-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1035 chars)

    Located in a neighborhood setting in the hamlet of South Cairo, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a comfortable layout with HW flooring and a classic brick fireplace in the living room, a full basement for storage or future possibilities, and a one-car attached garage. This well-built home sits on almost ½ acre, with a yard large enough for a garden, a pool, or outdoor entertaining on your back deck. From the front of the house you'll enjoy distant mountain views, and the location keeps you close to everything the Catskills have to offer. Several important improvements have already been completed, including a new roof installed in September 2025, replacement windows in 2020, and a new oil burner and oil tank installed in 2021. Located just four miles from the New York State Thruway, commuting is easy while still enjoying a peaceful setting. Nearby Hunter and Windham Mountains, hiking trails, restaurants, and year-round Catskills events make the location convenient for enjoying everything the region has to offer.

17. 2026-04-13
    listed $315,000 Active 1035-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1035 chars)

    Located in a neighborhood setting in the hamlet of South Cairo, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a comfortable layout with HW flooring and a classic brick fireplace in the living room, a full basement for storage or future possibilities, and a one-car attached garage. This well-built home sits on almost ½ acre, with a yard large enough for a garden, a pool, or outdoor entertaining on your back deck. From the front of the house you'll enjoy distant mountain views, and the location keeps you close to everything the Catskills have to offer. Several important improvements have already been completed, including a new roof installed in September 2025, replacement windows in 2020, and a new oil burner and oil tank installed in 2021. Located just four miles from the New York State Thruway, commuting is easy while still enjoying a peaceful setting. Nearby Hunter and Windham Mountains, hiking trails, restaurants, and year-round Catskills events make the location convenient for enjoying everything the region has to offer.

18. 2025-09-25
    status Active
19. 2025-09-25
    status Active
20. 2025-08-30
    historical Contingent
21. 2025-08-30
    historical
22. 2025-08-28
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2025-08-05
    listed $324,900 Active
24. 2025-08-04
    listed $324,900 Active
25. 1997-05-15
    soldstatus $73,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,965 · $330/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,509 · $376/mo
• Expected delta: +$544/yr (+$45/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,965
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$7,723
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,854
• After-tax cash flow: $-618/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo-Durham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,192
• Composite: 37.84/100
• National rank: #4330
• State rank: #470 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Cairo

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 601
• Population (ZIP): 849

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Asian 6%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 5% German 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• Current HPI: 403.4504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+328.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $315,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $315,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-25 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-09-25 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2025-08-30 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2025-08-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-08-28 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listed $324,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $324,900 Global MLS
• 1997-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,965 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.