9754 Millburn Dr · Ferguson, MO 63136

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1953 7,701 sqft lot $99/sqft · at area comps Est $94k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turnkey investment opportunity! Discover the perfect blend of potential and practicality in this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home located at 9754 Millburn Dr in St. Louis County. This single-family residence sits on a generous lot and offers comfortable living space with a welcoming, functional flow. Enjoy added value with a detached garage and a private backyard—ideal for entertaining, hobbies, or future expansion. Conveniently situated near parks, shopping, and local amenities in the 63136 area, this property offers both accessibility and neighborhood appeal. Whether you're an investor seeking a reliable rental addition to your portfolio or a buyer searching for a move-in ready home in an established community, this property presents a smart and versatile opportunity. Seller has additional turnkey houses for sale if interested.

Key facts

• Near shopping
• Private backyard
• Near parks

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• NEAR PARKS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 9.2% in Ferguson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.07%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,154
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -4.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9871 Medford Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	950 (+4%)	2mo	$124,900	$131	81
1719 Newhall Ct	0.20mi	3/1.0	975 (+7%)	0mo	$120,000	$123	79
10038 Balboa Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	864 (-5%)	2mo	$49,900	$58	68
9739 Balboa Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	999 (+10%)	1mo	$76,900	$77	68
324 Gage Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	875 (-4%)	1mo	$68,000	$78	63
1829 Chambers Rd	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-10%)	1mo	$34,900	$43	61
9606 Lifford Ct	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-12%)	1mo	$130,000	$163	60
9614 Winkler Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+12%)	1mo	$125,000	$123	58
10020 Dellridge Ln	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-10%)	1mo	$49,900	$61	56
9840 Green Valley Dr	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-10%)	2mo	$83,000	$102	54
2014 Kappel Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	989 (+8%)	2mo	$19,000	$19	51
2042 Kappel Dr	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	828 (-9%)	1mo	$49,900	$60	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $44,137
• Equity at exit: $44,531

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $119,106
• Equity at exit: $71,970

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,297 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,127/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $764

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.06mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.15mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	43d	1	0.15mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.15mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.16mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.26mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.30mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	12d	1	0.31mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	43d	1	0.34mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	43d	1	0.35mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	43d	1	0.36mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	0.36mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	14d	1	0.43mi
9547 Glen Owen Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	923	$985	$1.07	23d	1	0.44mi
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,050	$1.20	43d	1	0.49mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	0.57mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	23d	1	0.58mi
10078 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	7d	1	0.63mi
10124 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,400	$1.77	2d	1	0.65mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	23d	1	0.74mi
10128 Cloverdale Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	43d	1	0.74mi
10129 Cavalier Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.84mi
10239 Green Valley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,395	$1.38	23d	1	0.89mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	23d	1	0.90mi
1547 Babcock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,480	$1.46	43d	1	0.93mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.98mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	43d	1	1.01mi
8908 Scottdale Ave Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	790	$1,000	$1.27	43d	1	1.02mi
10329 Chesley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	23d	1	1.04mi
8893 Maya Ln Jennings, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	600	$930	$1.55	23d	6	1.14mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	43d	1	1.15mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	14d	1	1.15mi
502 Averill Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	43d	1	1.17mi
338 La Motte Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	904	$1,150	$1.27	43d	1	1.21mi
2617 Hord Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	3d	1	1.22mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	23d	1	1.23mi
920 Hutton Pl Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,195	$1.31	43d	1	1.25mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	23d	1	1.26mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	23d	1	1.26mi
307 Coppinger Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	17d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $90,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    price $100,000 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    Turnkey investment opportunity! Discover the perfect blend of potential and practicality in this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home located at 9754 Millburn Dr in St. Louis County. This single-family residence sits on a generous lot and offers comfortable living space with a welcoming, functional flow. Enjoy added value with a detached garage and a private backyard—ideal for entertaining, hobbies, or future expansion. Conveniently situated near parks, shopping, and local amenities in the 63136 area, this property offers both accessibility and neighborhood appeal. Whether you're an investor seeking a reliable rental addition to your portfolio or a buyer searching for a move-in ready home in an established community, this property presents a smart and versatile opportunity. Seller has additional turnkey houses for sale if interested.

16. 2026-03-18
    status Active 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    Turnkey investment opportunity! Discover the perfect blend of potential and practicality in this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home located at 9754 Millburn Dr in St. Louis County. This single-family residence sits on a generous lot and offers comfortable living space with a welcoming, functional flow. Enjoy added value with a detached garage and a private backyard—ideal for entertaining, hobbies, or future expansion. Conveniently situated near parks, shopping, and local amenities in the 63136 area, this property offers both accessibility and neighborhood appeal. Whether you're an investor seeking a reliable rental addition to your portfolio or a buyer searching for a move-in ready home in an established community, this property presents a smart and versatile opportunity. Seller has additional turnkey houses for sale if interested.

17. 2026-03-06
    historical Active Under Contract 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    Turnkey investment opportunity! Discover the perfect blend of potential and practicality in this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home located at 9754 Millburn Dr in St. Louis County. This single-family residence sits on a generous lot and offers comfortable living space with a welcoming, functional flow. Enjoy added value with a detached garage and a private backyard—ideal for entertaining, hobbies, or future expansion. Conveniently situated near parks, shopping, and local amenities in the 63136 area, this property offers both accessibility and neighborhood appeal. Whether you're an investor seeking a reliable rental addition to your portfolio or a buyer searching for a move-in ready home in an established community, this property presents a smart and versatile opportunity. Seller has additional turnkey houses for sale if interested.

18. 2026-02-14
    listed $101,000 Active 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    Turnkey investment opportunity! Discover the perfect blend of potential and practicality in this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home located at 9754 Millburn Dr in St. Louis County. This single-family residence sits on a generous lot and offers comfortable living space with a welcoming, functional flow. Enjoy added value with a detached garage and a private backyard—ideal for entertaining, hobbies, or future expansion. Conveniently situated near parks, shopping, and local amenities in the 63136 area, this property offers both accessibility and neighborhood appeal. Whether you're an investor seeking a reliable rental addition to your portfolio or a buyer searching for a move-in ready home in an established community, this property presents a smart and versatile opportunity. Seller has additional turnkey houses for sale if interested.

19. 2020-08-21
    soldstatus $760,073
20. 2020-04-01
    soldstatus $750,000
21. 2008-05-15
    soldstatus $74,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,127 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,127
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,245
• − Management: −$1,245
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,840
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$922
• After-tax cash flow: $4,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+35.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $100,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Listed $101,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $760,073 Public Records
• 2020-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $750,000 Public Records
• 2008-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,127 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.