1812 Minnesota Ave · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 820 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1965 2,439 sqft lot Est $118k · 16% under $120/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Own your land in the highly sought-after waterfront community of Bradenton Trailer Estates—this double-wide mobile home offers easy, laid-back Florida living with a bright, open-concept layout connecting the kitchen, dining, and living spaces for a seamless, inviting flow. A private detached shed with water and electric adds valuable flexibility—ideal for a dedicated laundry space, workshop, or extra storage, thoughtfully set apart from the main living areas. Offered fully furnished for a seamless move-in, this property is perfectly suited for both seasonal enjoyment and year-round Florida living. Situated within Trailer Estates, a deed-restricted community, homeowners enjoy tru

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Private beach access
• Shuffleboard

Tags

• PRIVATE DETACHED SHED
• FULLY FURNISHED
• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS
• RESORT STYLE POOL AND SPA
• FITNESS CENTER
• SHUFFLEBOARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Turnkey (furnished); Located in a senior community; Pets allowed
• Financial info: Total monthly fees listed as $120.42; Total annual fees listed as $1,445
• HOA & community: Association: TJ Miller; Association amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, park, recreation facilities, laundry, storage, lobby key required, maintenance, cable TV

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; Faces north
• Construction: Frame construction; Membrane roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Shade shutters; Sliding doors; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Other heating
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, schools F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $99k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.15%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1812 Minnesota Ave	0.00mi	2/1.5	820 (0%)	1mo	$105,000	$128	97
1912 Florida Blvd	0.12mi	2/1.5	800 (-2%)	2mo	$115,000	$144	87
1811 Pennsylvania Ave	0.13mi	2/1.5	840 (+2%)	2mo	$160,000	$190	86
1809 Illinois Ave	0.01mi	2/1.0	768 (-6%)	4mo	$110,000	$143	85
1612 Illinois Ave	0.12mi	2/1.5	780 (-5%)	2mo	$138,000	$177	82
1716 Indiana Ave	0.05mi	2/2.0	880 (+7%)	2mo	$135,000	$153	80
1812 Pennsylvania Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0	861 (+5%)	4mo	$100,000	$116	77
6609 Dakota St	0.19mi	2/1.0	750 (-8%)	0mo	$150,000	$200	77
1805 Pennsylvania Ave	0.13mi	2/1.5	741 (-10%)	2mo	$86,000	$116	74
6622 Nebraska St	0.25mi	2/2.0	878 (+7%)	0mo	$117,500	$134	72
6506 Nebraska St	0.36mi	2/2.0	870 (+6%)	3mo	$178,000	$205	66
6625 Massachusetts St	0.20mi	2/2.0	700 (-15%)	1mo	$100,000	$143	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-5,229
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,206
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,882/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2305 69th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,775	$1.71	23d	1	0.36mi
1122 68th Avenue Dr W Unit 5 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,450	$1.73	3d	1	0.39mi
1009 W 63rd AVE Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	815	$1,495	$1.83	16d	1	0.75mi
605 64th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,250	$1.59	11d	1	0.85mi
6434 5th St W Unit 6434 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	754	$2,800	$3.71	19d	1	0.85mi
5996 Hibiscus Dr #6 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	865	$1,550	$1.79	16d	1	0.89mi
7310 Manatee St Sarasota, FL	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,150	$1.95	23d	1	0.91mi
6043 Coral Way Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	865	$1,700	$1.97	16d	1	0.92mi
3304 McDill Rd Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,695	$1.62	11d	1	0.95mi
1839 Sunny Dr Unit E36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,350	$2.34	23d	1	0.99mi
1825 Flamingo Blvd Unit O26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	23d	1	0.99mi
1566 Pleasant Rd Unit J24 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	23d	1	1.00mi
5896 Palm Ln Unit C27 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	966	$1,400	$1.45	23d	1	1.03mi
5955 Palm Ln Unit A33 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	14d	1	1.03mi
5888 17th St W Unit C23 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	23d	1	1.04mi
5858 Welcome Rd Unit J23 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	3d	1	1.05mi
5906 Garden Ln Unit A22 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,200	$1.43	3d	1	1.05mi
2028 Canal Dr Unit M26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,050	$1.82	10d	1	1.06mi
1874 Sunny Dr Unit F32 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$950	$1.28	23d	1	1.06mi
1859 Restful Dr Unit L26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,150	$2.00	23d	1	1.07mi
1807 Restful Dr Unit N4 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	3d	1	1.07mi
1875 Sunny Dr Unit G32 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	23d	1	1.07mi
5908 17th St W Unit C36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$950	$1.65	16d	1	1.07mi
2547 60th Ave W Unit L-36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	16d	1	1.08mi
2423 60th Ave W Unit K29 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1026	$1,495	$1.46	23d	1	1.08mi
2713 60th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$2,000	$1.86	23d	1	1.10mi
512 60th Avenue Ter W Unit 512 Bradenton, FL	3.0	1.5	972	$1,900	$1.95	10d	1	1.15mi
5820 21st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,995	$1.79	3d	1	1.16mi
3 Date Ave Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	23d	1	1.22mi
6033 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	942	$1,550	$1.64	3d	3	1.27mi
6033 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	996	$1,500	$1.51	23d	2	1.27mi
6033 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	942	$1,625	$1.73	2d	2	1.27mi
6050 34th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	734	$1,610	$2.19	1d	19	1.40mi
1007 57th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	967	$1,495	$1.55	10d	1	1.43mi
5513 18th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   listed $99,000 Active
3. 1989-12-29
   soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,882 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,882 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,882
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,404
• − Management: −$1,404
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,495
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$359
• After-tax cash flow: $2,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+120.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,882 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.