669 Road 5822 · Dayton, TX 77327

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 200 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 10,454 sqft lot $123/sqft · 18% above area Est $127k · 18% over $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this exceptional opportunity. perfect for investors or first-time homebuyers! Priced to sell, this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generous lot and offers the perfect blend of peaceful country living with convenient access to major roadways. Built in 2023, the home features an inviting open-concept layout, modern finishes, and a spacious kitchen ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The primary suite offers ample space, a beautifully designed bathroom with a separate soaking tub and walk-in shower, and contemporary touches throughout. Step outside to an expansive backyard—perfect for gardening, outdoor gatherings, or simply unwinding in your own private space. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio or find the perfect place to call home, this property is truly a gem. Experience the beauty of country living with quick access to essential amenities and main thoroughfares.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Walk-in shower
• Expansive backyard

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• BEAUTIFULLY DESIGNED BATHROOM
• SEPARATE SOAKING TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,066 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1578 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.76%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,685
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 18.40%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
662 Road 5606	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-12%)	9mo	$110,000	$103	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,513
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $23,748
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1578
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,518 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,174

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $356	-5% $314	+0% $272	+5% $229	+10% $187
Rent	-10% $152	-5% $212	+0% $272	+5% $331	+10% $391
Rate	-1.0pp $347	-0.5pp $310	base $272	+0.5pp $233	+1.0pp $193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	2d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 200 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 192 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    price $150,000 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    Welcome to this exceptional opportunity. perfect for investors or first-time homebuyers! Priced to sell, this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generous lot and offers the perfect blend of peaceful country living with convenient access to major roadways. Built in 2023, the home features an inviting open-concept layout, modern finishes, and a spacious kitchen ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The primary suite offers ample space, a beautifully designed bathroom with a separate soaking tub and walk-in shower, and contemporary touches throughout. Step outside to an expansive backyard—perfect for gardening, outdoor gatherings, or simply unwinding in your own private space. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio or find the perfect place to call home, this property is truly a gem. Experience the beauty of country living with quick access to essential amenities and main thoroughfares.

16. 2026-01-22
    price $158,000 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    Welcome to this exceptional opportunity. perfect for investors or first-time homebuyers! Priced to sell, this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generous lot and offers the perfect blend of peaceful country living with convenient access to major roadways. Built in 2023, the home features an inviting open-concept layout, modern finishes, and a spacious kitchen ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The primary suite offers ample space, a beautifully designed bathroom with a separate soaking tub and walk-in shower, and contemporary touches throughout. Step outside to an expansive backyard—perfect for gardening, outdoor gatherings, or simply unwinding in your own private space. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio or find the perfect place to call home, this property is truly a gem. Experience the beauty of country living with quick access to essential amenities and main thoroughfares.

17. 2025-12-04
    listed $155,000 Active 958-char remark

    Show marketing remark (958 chars)

    Welcome to this exceptional opportunity. perfect for investors or first-time homebuyers! Priced to sell, this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generous lot and offers the perfect blend of peaceful country living with convenient access to major roadways. Built in 2023, the home features an inviting open-concept layout, modern finishes, and a spacious kitchen ideal for everyday living or entertaining. The primary suite offers ample space, a beautifully designed bathroom with a separate soaking tub and walk-in shower, and contemporary touches throughout. Step outside to an expansive backyard—perfect for gardening, outdoor gatherings, or simply unwinding in your own private space. Whether you’re looking to expand your investment portfolio or find the perfect place to call home, this property is truly a gem. Experience the beauty of country living with quick access to essential amenities and main thoroughfares.

18. 2025-12-03
    historical
19. 2025-10-10
    price $155,000
20. 2025-09-24
    price $165,000
21. 2025-07-16
    listed $170,000 Active
22. 2023-04-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,927/yr (+$161/mo · 235.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $843
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$202
• After-tax cash flow: $3,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is in excellent condition and ready for move-in. It offers a spacious kitchen, modern finishes, and a well-maintained exterior. Potential buyers and tenants will appreciate the home's curb appeal and energy-efficient features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can improve energy efficiency and convenience for both buyers and tenants.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — A smart home system can improve energy efficiency and convenience for both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1066
• US rank: #18940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $158,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $818 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.