9110 Aspen Trace Ln · Humble, TX 77338

$250,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,874 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2006 6,333 sqft lot $133/sqft · at area comps Est $252k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 9110 Aspen Trace in Humble, TX! This spacious two-story home sits on a desirable corner lot and offers 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage—an incredible find with room for everyone. The home features beautiful wood-like flooring throughout, creating a warm and modern feel across the entire space. Recently updated bathrooms add a fresh and stylish touch. The floor plan offers generously sized bedrooms with ample closet space, making storage and organization easy. The large backyard provides plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, pets, play, or future customization. With great curb appeal and a welcoming presence, this home stands out from the moment you arrive. Conveniently located with easy access to major freeways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this home combines space, comfort, and location. Five-bedroom homes at this value are rare—schedule your private tour today!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Updated bathrooms
• Wood-like flooring

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WOOD-LIKE FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR FREEWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.7% in Humble — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#961 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,499 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.29%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,579
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -0.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9115 Aspen Trace Ln	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,004 (+7%)	3mo	$254,900	$127	84
8914 River Dale Canyon Ln	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,964 (+5%)	1mo	$265,000	$135	84
19902 Chaste Tree Ln	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,880 (+0%)	1mo	$272,000	$145	77
9107 River Dale Canyon Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,703 (-9%)	8mo	$199,999	$117	70
20015 Sweet Magnolia Pl	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-7%)	2mo	$209,900	$121	56
8906 Stagewood Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,649 (-12%)	6mo	$243,000	$147	55
8514 Sugar Wood Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (+5%)	5mo	$219,900	$112	50
20443 Moon Walk Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,691 (-10%)	5mo	$239,786	$142	50
20503 Marblehead Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,988 (+6%)	5mo	$175,000	$88	49
19922 Bridgedale Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-12%)	1mo	$246,000	$149	47
20310 Landshire Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,049 (+9%)	3mo	$282,000	$138	46
8803 Leclaire Meadow Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-12%)	2mo	$239,786	$145	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.77% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-37,476
• Equity at exit: $63,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-41,177
• Equity at exit: $68,558

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77338

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,078 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$506 /mo · $6,068/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,468

Max offer price $195,499

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8902 Snapping Turtle Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,729	$1.22	7d	1	0.34mi
20527 Faith Millstream Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2178	$2,100	$0.96	43d	1	0.43mi
20538 Faith Millstream Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,931	$1.19	22d	1	0.45mi
20418 Red Canyon Creek Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	22d	1	0.52mi
20102 Bridgedale Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,999	$1.22	43d	1	0.52mi
20327 Bridgedale Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,786	$1.46	7d	1	0.55mi
9393 Farm to Market 1960 Bypass Rd W Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$1,966	$1.90	2d	25	0.62mi
20257 Fieldtree Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,500	$1.04	24d	1	0.67mi
8419 Opalwood Ln Unit Main Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,482	$1.19	18d	1	0.75mi
19902 Bishops Gate Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,825	$1.16	24d	1	0.87mi
20126 Chipplegate Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,800	$1.34	43d	1	0.99mi
20211 Cottonglade Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,699	$1.26	43d	1	1.08mi
19106 Sears Dr Unit B Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1228	$1,895	$1.54	7d	1	1.33mi
7810 Birchbark Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1663	$1,899	$1.14	24d	1	1.35mi
19931 Arrowsmith Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2264	$1,831	$0.81	24d	1	1.38mi
21235 Grand Field Ct Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	1750	$1,800	$1.03	43d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Pending 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Pending 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Pending 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Pending 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Pending 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $250,000 Pending 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-05-10
    status Pending 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    Welcome to 9110 Aspen Trace in Humble, TX! This spacious two-story home sits on a desirable corner lot and offers 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage—an incredible find with room for everyone. The home features beautiful wood-like flooring throughout, creating a warm and modern feel across the entire space. Recently updated bathrooms add a fresh and stylish touch. The floor plan offers generously sized bedrooms with ample closet space, making storage and organization easy. The large backyard provides plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, pets, play, or future customization. With great curb appeal and a welcoming presence, this home stands out from the moment you arrive. Conveniently located with easy access to major freeways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this home combines space, comfort, and location. Five-bedroom homes at this value are rare—schedule your private tour today!

13. 2026-05-04
    status Pending 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    Welcome to 9110 Aspen Trace in Humble, TX! This spacious two-story home sits on a desirable corner lot and offers 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage—an incredible find with room for everyone. The home features beautiful wood-like flooring throughout, creating a warm and modern feel across the entire space. Recently updated bathrooms add a fresh and stylish touch. The floor plan offers generously sized bedrooms with ample closet space, making storage and organization easy. The large backyard provides plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, pets, play, or future customization. With great curb appeal and a welcoming presence, this home stands out from the moment you arrive. Conveniently located with easy access to major freeways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this home combines space, comfort, and location. Five-bedroom homes at this value are rare—schedule your private tour today!

14. 2026-04-20
    listed $250,000 Active 927-char remark

    Show marketing remark (927 chars)

    Welcome to 9110 Aspen Trace in Humble, TX! This spacious two-story home sits on a desirable corner lot and offers 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage—an incredible find with room for everyone. The home features beautiful wood-like flooring throughout, creating a warm and modern feel across the entire space. Recently updated bathrooms add a fresh and stylish touch. The floor plan offers generously sized bedrooms with ample closet space, making storage and organization easy. The large backyard provides plenty of room for outdoor entertaining, pets, play, or future customization. With great curb appeal and a welcoming presence, this home stands out from the moment you arrive. Conveniently located with easy access to major freeways, shopping, dining, and everyday amenities, this home combines space, comfort, and location. Five-bedroom homes at this value are rare—schedule your private tour today!

15. 2016-11-22
    soldstatus
16. 2016-11-18
    soldstatus Sold 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 4 BED ROOM 2 1/2 BATH HOME ON NICE CORNER LOT. THE MASTER BED ROOM IS DOWN AND THE GAME ROOM, 3 BED ROOMS AND 2ND FULL BATH UP. SELLER JUST PAINTED THE INSIDE AND PUT IN NEW CARPET. IT HAS DOUBLE PANED WINDOWS, GAS COOKING AND NICE SIZED BACK YARD FOR THE KIDS.

17. 2016-10-20
    status Pending 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 4 BED ROOM 2 1/2 BATH HOME ON NICE CORNER LOT. THE MASTER BED ROOM IS DOWN AND THE GAME ROOM, 3 BED ROOMS AND 2ND FULL BATH UP. SELLER JUST PAINTED THE INSIDE AND PUT IN NEW CARPET. IT HAS DOUBLE PANED WINDOWS, GAS COOKING AND NICE SIZED BACK YARD FOR THE KIDS.

18. 2016-10-13
    status Option Pending 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 4 BED ROOM 2 1/2 BATH HOME ON NICE CORNER LOT. THE MASTER BED ROOM IS DOWN AND THE GAME ROOM, 3 BED ROOMS AND 2ND FULL BATH UP. SELLER JUST PAINTED THE INSIDE AND PUT IN NEW CARPET. IT HAS DOUBLE PANED WINDOWS, GAS COOKING AND NICE SIZED BACK YARD FOR THE KIDS.

19. 2016-10-07
    price $149,500 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 4 BED ROOM 2 1/2 BATH HOME ON NICE CORNER LOT. THE MASTER BED ROOM IS DOWN AND THE GAME ROOM, 3 BED ROOMS AND 2ND FULL BATH UP. SELLER JUST PAINTED THE INSIDE AND PUT IN NEW CARPET. IT HAS DOUBLE PANED WINDOWS, GAS COOKING AND NICE SIZED BACK YARD FOR THE KIDS.

20. 2016-09-17
    listed $155,000 Active 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL 4 BED ROOM 2 1/2 BATH HOME ON NICE CORNER LOT. THE MASTER BED ROOM IS DOWN AND THE GAME ROOM, 3 BED ROOMS AND 2ND FULL BATH UP. SELLER JUST PAINTED THE INSIDE AND PUT IN NEW CARPET. IT HAS DOUBLE PANED WINDOWS, GAS COOKING AND NICE SIZED BACK YARD FOR THE KIDS.

21. 2011-11-22
    soldstatus
22. 2011-10-17
    historical
23. 2011-09-26
    listed $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,068 · $506/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,068 · $506/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,068
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,920
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Humble

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #961
• US rank: #17060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 109,766
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,031
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2620.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% Black 34% Two or more races 18% White 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Armenian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Current HPI: 245.7087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+233.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2016-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-11-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-10-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-10-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-10-07 Price Changed $149,500 HARMLS
• 2016-09-17 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2011-11-22 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-10-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-09-26 Listed $74,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,068 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.