1215 W Bullock St · Denison, TX 75020

$169,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,688 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $235k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home on large lot with lots of updates. Selling by owner as is . Appraised at 265000.

Key facts

• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-44 ($-533/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (4.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $161k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Denison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#221 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Denison ISD (urban): math 43% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #315 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 485 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 21% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,147 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.13%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,632
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1210 W Bullock St	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,676 (-1%)	7mo	$200,000	$119	89
1706 Woodlawn Blvd	0.06mi	4/3.0	1,726 (+2%)	8mo	$305,000	$177	87
1130 W Bullock St	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,525 (-10%)	8mo	$265,000	$174	72
1201 Brookside Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-13%)	2mo	$329,000	$223	59
1228 Woodlawn Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-10%)	7mo	$210,000	$138	57
627 W Monterey St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-5%)	1mo	$249,000	$156	51
1025 S Maurice Ave	0.50mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,504 (-11%)	0mo	$209,000	$139	47
1508 W Shepherd St	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,773 (+5%)	4mo	$159,900	$90	45
505 W Ford St	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,773 (+5%)	7mo	$230,000	$130	42
1300 W Day St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,508 (-11%)	2mo	$150,000	$99	42
525 W Hanna St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-12%)	3mo	$178,500	$120	39
1020 Rice St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-15%)	2mo	$209,900	$146	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-34,987
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-52,533
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75020

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 485
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,712 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$441 /mo · $5,287/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,769

Max offer price $161,147

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $51	-5% $3	+0% $-44	+5% $-92	+10% $-140
Rent	-10% $-180	-5% $-112	+0% $-44	+5% $23	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $41	-0.5pp $-1	base $-44	+0.5pp $-88	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1225 W Hanna St Denison, TX	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,600	$1.07	44d	1	0.11mi
725 W Brock St Denison, TX	3.0	1.5	1349	$1,450	$1.07	21d	1	0.39mi
1012 S Maurice Ave Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,895	$1.18	44d	1	0.52mi
811 W Coffin St Denison, TX	3.0	2.5	1422	$1,600	$1.13	44d	1	0.56mi
1011 S Armstrong Ave Unit B Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	2068	$1,800	$0.87	44d	1	0.63mi
2400 S Barrett Ave Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,349	$1.24	44d	1	0.68mi
921 W Day St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,500	$1.24	44d	1	0.74mi
1022 W Shepherd St #1022 Denison, TX	3.0	2.5	1322	$1,450	$1.10	21d	1	0.76mi
1050 Dubois St Denison, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,195	$0.93	21d	1	0.78mi
531 W Collins St Unit NA Denison, TX	4.0	2.0	1080	$1,560	$1.44	21d	1	0.83mi
2516 S Fannin Ave Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,425	$1.14	21d	1	0.89mi
604 Star St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.91mi
2624 S Fannin Ave Denison, TX	3.0	2.5	1322	$1,500	$1.13	44d	1	0.94mi
1120 W Owing St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,225	$1.12	21d	1	0.96mi
1131 W Owing St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,695	$1.49	44d	1	0.99mi
404 W Day St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	21d	1	1.00mi
1921 Ave a Denison, TX	4.0	3.0	1700	$1,995	$1.17	44d	1	1.01mi
108 W Acheson St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,550	$1.47	44d	1	1.01mi
1931 Ave a Denison, TX	4.0	3.0	1450	$1,695	$1.17	44d	1	1.01mi
1805 Waterloo Ave Denison, TX	3.0	1.5	1242	$1,450	$1.17	21d	1	1.02mi
410 S Mirick Ave Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	44d	1	1.10mi
105 E Ford St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1563	$1,525	$0.98	21d	1	1.10mi
610 W Owing St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1108	$1,395	$1.26	44d	1	1.10mi
2027 Bluebonnet Ave Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,775	$1.21	44d	1	1.12mi
900 W Chestnut St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1742	$1,695	$0.97	44d	1	1.12mi
2109 Bluebonnet Ave Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,799	$1.23	21d	1	1.13mi
2109 Bluebonnet Ave Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,800	$1.23	44d	1	1.13mi
411 S Fannin Ave #411 Denison, TX	3.0	2.5	1322	$1,450	$1.10	21d	1	1.14mi
514 Forrest Ln Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,500	$0.88	21d	1	1.29mi
2631 Stafford Dr Unit Na Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,199	$1.37	44d	1	1.30mi
1004 W Gandy St Denison, TX	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,299	$1.04	21d	1	1.31mi
1730 S Center St Denison, TX	4.0	1.5	1700	$1,500	$0.88	44d	1	1.37mi
1309 S 5th Ave Unit 1311 Denison, TX	3.0	2.5	1224	$1,350	$1.10	44d	1	1.43mi
1309 S 5th Ave #1309 Denison, TX	3.0	2.5	1224	$1,325	$1.08	44d	1	1.43mi
1309 S 5th Ave Denison, TX	3.0	2.5	1224	$1,375	$1.12	44d	1	1.43mi
809 S Travis Ave Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,595	$1.07	44d	1	1.45mi
523 E Hanna St Denison, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,595	$1.19	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2017-01-01
   historical
2. 2016-11-21
   price $135,000
3. 2016-11-18
   listed $139,900 Active
4. 2014-04-21
   historical
5. 2014-04-21
   price $108,000
6. 2014-02-26
   listed $110,000 Active
7. 2005-01-18
   soldstatus
8. 2004-11-18
   soldstatus
9. 1977-05-24
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,287 · $441/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,287 · $441/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,549
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$5,287
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$3,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$781
• After-tax cash flow: $248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denison ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816710
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,650
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4629
• State rank: #315 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denison

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #5428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denison, TX
• County: Grayson County · 108,053 people
• City population: 34,008
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,835
• Household income: $71,605
• Rent vs Own: 41.3% rent · 58.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 997.0

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.96%
• Current HPI: 257.1806
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.05%
• Metro: Sherman-Denison, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+22.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2017-01-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2016-11-21 Price Changed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2016-11-18 Listed $139,900 NTREIS
• 2014-04-21 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2014-04-21 Price Changed $108,000 NTREIS
• 2014-02-26 Listed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2005-01-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1977-05-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,287 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.