4239 Cedarwood St · Jan Phyl Village, FL 33880

$128,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 111 Days on market

Built 1981 3,681 sqft lot $163/mo HOA · 10% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location! Location! Location! This home is located right down the road from the spruce wood clubhouse, swimming pool , tennis courts. A lot of home for the money, home boost a C/H/A that is approximate less than A YEAR old, roof is less than three years old. Newer windows in living room. Make this your retirement dream home. Located with in a five star, gated community with planned activities.

Key facts

• Updated island
• Two clubhouses
• Two living areas

Tags

• TWO LIVING AREAS
• UPDATED ISLAND
• LANAI
• TWO BUILT IN CLOSETS
• BATH ATTACHED
• TWO CLUBHOUSES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $163.11) — fee includes water and trash; Community clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard court; Gated community with deed restrictions; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed; Golf carts allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Home faces south; Entry on one main level
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Fishing pier access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $300 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#769 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $128k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,480 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.04%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,414
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $19,340
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,656/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $300

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,298

Max offer price $128,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $372	-5% $336	+0% $300	+5% $264	+10% $228
Rent	-10% $167	-5% $234	+0% $300	+5% $366	+10% $433
Rate	-1.0pp $364	-0.5pp $333	base $300	+0.5pp $267	+1.0pp $233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3992 Warbler Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$1,750	$1.07	15d	1	0.27mi
449 Red Hawk Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,581	$1.43	4d	1	0.80mi
3211 Timberline Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1694	$1,845	$1.09	4d	1	0.85mi
3320 Timberline Rd W Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,735	$1.32	4d	1	0.88mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	4d	1	0.96mi
267 Lake Thomas Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,800	$1.74	24d	1	1.06mi
1059 Spirit Lake Rd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,378	$1.53	24d	1	1.07mi
108 Brad Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,720	$1.30	24d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $128,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,000 Active 102 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,000 Active 101 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $128,000 Active 100 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $128,000 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,000 Active 95 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-02-27
    listed $128,000 Active
15. 2019-05-08
    soldstatus $59,900 Sold 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! This home is located right down the road from the spruce wood clubhouse, swimming pool , tennis courts. A lot of home for the money, home boost a C/H/A that is approximate less than A YEAR old, roof is less than three years old. Newer windows in living room. Make this your retirement dream home. Located with in a five star, gated community with planned activities.

16. 2019-03-13
    status Pending 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! This home is located right down the road from the spruce wood clubhouse, swimming pool , tennis courts. A lot of home for the money, home boost a C/H/A that is approximate less than A YEAR old, roof is less than three years old. Newer windows in living room. Make this your retirement dream home. Located with in a five star, gated community with planned activities.

17. 2019-02-27
    price $59,900 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! This home is located right down the road from the spruce wood clubhouse, swimming pool , tennis courts. A lot of home for the money, home boost a C/H/A that is approximate less than A YEAR old, roof is less than three years old. Newer windows in living room. Make this your retirement dream home. Located with in a five star, gated community with planned activities.

18. 2018-09-13
    listed $69,900 Active 397-char remark

    Show marketing remark (397 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! This home is located right down the road from the spruce wood clubhouse, swimming pool , tennis courts. A lot of home for the money, home boost a C/H/A that is approximate less than A YEAR old, roof is less than three years old. Newer windows in living room. Make this your retirement dream home. Located with in a five star, gated community with planned activities.

19. 2018-01-29
    historical
20. 2017-10-04
    listed $69,900 Active
21. 2006-09-22
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,656 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$1,656
• − Insurance: −$640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable income: $1,768
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$424
• After-tax cash flow: $3,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jan Phyl Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #17294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+113.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $128,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-08 Sold (MLS) $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-27 Price Changed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-13 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-04 Listed $69,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,656 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.