538 Chapel St · New Haven, CT 06511

$1,190,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,194 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1844 6,098 sqft lot Est $893k · 33% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Architecturally distinguished historic 1844 residence, converted and modernizedin 1985. 1/2 Block from wooster square park. Shaded rear yard. Stable rent roll.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1844

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 4,194 (per public record)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected; Tankless hot water (natural gas)
• Home design: Multi-family property (4-family)
• Construction: Frame construction; Stone foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Clapboard siding
• Exterior features: Historic district setting; Paved driveway

Interior

• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms total
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard, hot air, radiant, and radiator heating; Electric and natural gas fuel sources; Central air and ductless cooling
• Interior features: 14 total rooms; Partial, partially finished basement with storage and hatchway; Common laundry area; Central air and ductless cooling
• Laundry & utility: Common laundry area; Tankless hot water (natural gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 6-bed/4.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.19M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $108/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.12M (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.12M (5.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.8% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: James Hillhouse High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #188 of 194 statewide, top 98%, 1,139 students, 79% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $11,237/mo this rent would consume 225% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 4999% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.17M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $1.19M implies a 543% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1844 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,123,700 (5.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1844 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.55%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $893,322
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
538 Chapel St	0.00mi	6/4.0 (+1)	4,194 (0%)	0mo	$1,310,000	$312	95
8 Academy St	0.11mi	6/4.0 (+1)	4,458 (+6%)	4mo	$949,000	$213	76
244 Saint John St	0.20mi	6/4.0 (+1)	3,964 (-6%)	18mo	$820,000	$207	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-169,595
• Equity at exit: $177,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-129,446
• Equity at exit: $102,889

Cash invested: $333,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06511

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 35.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,240
• Tax from tax record: −$1,710 /mo · $20,522/yr
• Insurance: −$496
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,360
• Net cashflow: $431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,692

Max offer price $1,190,000

Occupancy floor 91%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	6	4	$11,236
Total (4 units)			$11,237

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $297,500
• Closing costs: $35,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 Lloyd St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	4131	$2,500	$0.61	23d	1	0.85mi
395 Crown St New Haven, CT	6.0	3.5	2889	$7,195	$2.49	43d	1	0.99mi
131 Dwight St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	6.0	3.0	3000	$6,250	$2.08	14d	1	1.10mi
131 Dwight St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	6.0	3.0	3097	$6,250	$2.02	23d	1	1.10mi
648 Ferry St Unit 3 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	4188	$2,400	$0.57	43d	1	1.36mi
572 Elm St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	4998	$2,450	$0.49	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-29
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $1,190,000 Active
4. 2026-04-18
   historical $1,190,000
5. 2011-08-02
   soldstatus $185,000
6. 2001-11-15
   soldstatus $281,500 159-char remark

   Show marketing remark (159 chars)

   Architecturally distinguished historic 1844 residence, converted and modernizedin 1985. 1/2 Block from wooster square park. Shaded rear yard. Stable rent roll.

7. 2001-11-15
   listed $295,000 159-char remark

   Show marketing remark (159 chars)

   Architecturally distinguished historic 1844 residence, converted and modernizedin 1985. 1/2 Block from wooster square park. Shaded rear yard. Stable rent roll.

8. 1988-05-13
   soldstatus $378,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $20,522 · $1,710/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $22,994 · $1,916/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,472/yr (+$206/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $134,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$66,659
• − Property taxes: −$20,522
• − Insurance: −$5,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,788
• − Management: −$10,788
• − Depreciation: −$34,618
• Taxable loss: −$14,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,475
• After-tax cash flow: $8,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 54,730
• Household income: $59,969
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4999.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.05%
• Current HPI: 328.1353
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+214.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-29 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $1,190,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-18 Coming Soon $1,190,000 Smart MLS
• 2011-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2001-11-15 Listed $295,000 Smart MLS
• 2001-11-15 Sold (MLS) $281,500 Smart MLS
• 1988-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $378,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $20,522 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.