Pinehollow Plan · Marion, TX 78124

$227,249

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 166 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Cash flow +1.5/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $227,249 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $497,819.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.6% vs local median 4.4% in Marion — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 778 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,714 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.38% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.85%
• DSCR: 0.25
• GRM: 22.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $497,819
• List price: $227,249
• Delta: -54.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17585 Fargoer	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,845 (+15%)	4mo	$650,000	$352	62
5825 Blacksmith	2.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,504 (-6%)	18mo	$410,000	$273	33
374 Cub Dr	1.85mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,513 (-5%)	46mo	$150,000	$99	31
4715 FM 2538	1.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-12%)	60mo	$370,000	$262	20
322 Cub Dr	1.94mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-12%)	43mo	$250,000	$178	20
339 Century Oaks Dr	1.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,954 (+22%)	31mo	$539,875	$276	15
425 Stearman Ln	2.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-24%)	54mo	$230,000	$189	15
413 Farmstead Dr	1.87mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,072 (+30%)	34mo	$495,000	$239	13
425 FM 2538	1.96mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,879 (+17%)	42mo	$578,500	$308	13

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -49.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.47×
• Total profit: $-205,306
• Equity at exit: $74,226

10-year hold

• IRR: -97.8%
• Equity multiple: -1.43×
• Total profit: $-339,189
• Equity at exit: $43,042

Cash invested: $139,389 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 60.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $242,412 ($149/sqft)
• Median days on market: 166 d
• This list price: 30% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +108.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 778
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,611
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$622 /mo · $7,467/yr
• Insurance: −$207
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-1,957

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,355

Max offer price $214,584

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,613	-5% $-1,785	+0% $-1,957	+5% $-2,129	+10% $-2,301
Rent	-10% $-2,106	-5% $-2,032	+0% $-1,957	+5% $-1,883	+10% $-1,809
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,707	-0.5pp $-1,831	base $-1,957	+0.5pp $-2,086	+1.0pp $-2,218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,455
• Closing costs: $14,935
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $242,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan)Model name: Pinehollow
• Exterior features: Living area of 1600

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Pinehollow)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $227,249 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $227,249 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $227,249 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $227,249 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $227,249 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   price $227,249 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $227,174 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $227,174 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $227,174 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    pricedays on market $227,174 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-10-30
    price $226,999 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-10-29
    days on market $225,999 Active 156 DOM
13. 2026-10-28
    days on market $225,999 Active 155 DOM
14. 2026-10-27
    days on market $225,999 Active 154 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $225,999 Active 153 DOM
16. 2026-10-26
    days on market $225,999 Active 152 DOM
17. 2026-10-24
    days on market $225,999 Active 151 DOM
18. 2026-10-23
    days on market $225,999 Active 150 DOM
19. 2026-10-22
    days on market $225,999 Active 149 DOM
20. 2026-10-21
    days on market $225,999 Active 148 DOM
21. 2026-10-20
    days on market $225,999 Active 147 DOM
22. 2026-10-19
    days on market $225,999 Active 146 DOM
23. 2026-10-18
    days on market $225,999 Active 145 DOM
24. 2026-10-17
    days on market $225,999 Active 144 DOM
25. 2026-10-16
    days on market $225,999 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-10-15
    days on market $225,999 Active 142 DOM
27. 2026-10-14
    days on market $225,999 Active 141 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    price $225,999 Active 140 DOM
29. 2026-10-13
    days on market $229,999 Active 140 DOM
30. 2026-10-12
    days on market $229,999 Active 139 DOM
31. 2026-10-11
    days on market $229,999 Active 138 DOM
32. 2026-10-10
    days on market $229,999 Active 137 DOM
33. 2026-10-09
    days on market $229,999 Active 136 DOM
34. 2026-10-08
    days on market $229,999 Active 135 DOM
35. 2026-10-07
    days on market $229,999 Active 134 DOM
36. 2026-10-07
    days on market $229,999 Active 133 DOM
37. 2026-10-05
    days on market $229,999 Active 132 DOM
38. 2026-10-04
    days on market $229,999 Active 131 DOM
39. 2026-10-04
    days on market $229,999 Active 130 DOM
40. 2026-10-02
    days on market $229,999 Active 129 DOM
41. 2026-10-01
    days on market $229,999 Active 128 DOM
42. 2026-09-30
    days on market $229,999 Active 127 DOM
43. 2026-09-29
    days on market $229,999 Active 126 DOM
44. 2026-09-28
    days on market $229,999 Active 125 DOM
45. 2026-09-27
    days on market $229,999 Active 124 DOM
46. 2026-09-25
    days on market $229,999 Active 122 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $229,999 Active 121 DOM
48. 2026-09-23
    days on market $229,999 Active 120 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $229,999 Active 119 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $229,999 Active 118 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,886
• − Property taxes: −$7,467
• − Insurance: −$2,489
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − Depreciation: −$14,482
• Taxable loss: −$33,402
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,017
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,000–$24,000 screening

This single-level home features a spacious open floorplan and a well-maintained exterior. A fresh coat of paint on the exterior siding would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Middle East Central Heritage Middle F TX #1,478/1,662 Nat'l #12,017/14,009 High East Central H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guadalupe · 2,336,851 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907
• Household income: $82,534
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 47% of renters

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Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $242,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan)Model name: Pinehollow
• Exterior features: Living area of 1600

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Pinehollow)