1605 Belmont Dr · Murray, KY 42071

$182,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,694 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

0.50 ac lot $107/sqft · 13% below area Est $209k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom home located in nice subdivision. Large covered front porch. Spacious living room with large window. Newer style windows. Large kitchen/dining area. Split bedroom design. Bath has been updated with large walkin shower and cabinetry. Utility room with storage area. Master bedroom can accommodate large furniture. Large fenced in backyard with storage building and large trees. Move in ready! One storage building with electricity and another storage building with sidewalk from home.

Key facts

• Two outbuildings
• Large kitchen
• Minutes to i-69

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• COVERED REAR PORCH
• TWO OUTBUILDINGS
• MINUTES TO I-69

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.6% in Murray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#380 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Murray Independent (town): math 58% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #5 of 165 in KY (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Calloway County in 2024 (66 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calloway County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $182k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,990 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.84%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,740
• List price: $182,000
• Delta: -12.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1508 Glendale Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,712 (+1%)	10mo	$260,000	$152	76
1713 Melrose Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,807 (+7%)	1mo	$233,000	$129	71
1603 Catalina Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (-14%)	1mo	$238,850	$165	63
1609 Tabard Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,775 (+5%)	6mo	$299,900	$169	63
1223 W Dogwood Dr	0.35mi	3/3.0	1,768 (+4%)	10mo	$195,000	$110	62
1519 Canterbury	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,770 (+4%)	12mo	$270,000	$153	61
1515 Kirkwood Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-15%)	1mo	$240,500	$166	58
1615 Kirkwood Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,511 (-11%)	12mo	$223,000	$148	56
1501 Glendale	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,851 (+9%)	8mo	$293,000	$158	54
1398 Johnson Blvd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+6%)	2mo	$235,000	$131	54
802 S 17th St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,597 (-6%)	12mo	$243,500	$152	52
1513 Cardinal Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,886 (+11%)	6mo	$170,000	$90	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-12,315
• Equity at exit: $27,137

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $33,071
• Equity at exit: $15,736

Cash invested: $50,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42071

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $563/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $182,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $266	-5% $215	+0% $163	+5% $112	+10% $60
Rent	-10% $39	-5% $101	+0% $163	+5% $225	+10% $287
Rate	-1.0pp $255	-0.5pp $209	base $163	+0.5pp $116	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,500
• Closing costs: $5,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Williams Ave Murray, KY	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,698	$1.42	44d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $182,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $182,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $182,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $182,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $182,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $182,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $188,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $190,000 Active 530-char remark
17. 2015-12-17
    soldstatus $118,000
18. 2015-12-14
    soldstatus $118,000 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    4 bedroom home located in nice subdivision. Large covered front porch. Spacious living room with large window. Newer style windows. Large kitchen/dining area. Split bedroom design. Bath has been updated with large walkin shower and cabinetry. Utility room with storage area. Master bedroom can accommodate large furniture. Large fenced in backyard with storage building and large trees. Move in ready! One storage building with electricity and another storage building with sidewalk from home.

19. 2015-01-09
    listed $119,900 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    4 bedroom home located in nice subdivision. Large covered front porch. Spacious living room with large window. Newer style windows. Large kitchen/dining area. Split bedroom design. Bath has been updated with large walkin shower and cabinetry. Utility room with storage area. Master bedroom can accommodate large furniture. Large fenced in backyard with storage building and large trees. Move in ready! One storage building with electricity and another storage building with sidewalk from home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $563 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,565 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,002/yr (+$84/mo · 178.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,195
• − Property taxes: −$563
• − Insurance: −$910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,507
• − Management: −$1,507
• − Depreciation: −$5,295
• Taxable loss: −$1,138
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$273
• After-tax cash flow: $2,230/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murray Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104380
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $37,625
• Composite: 50.29/100
• National rank: #1882
• State rank: #5 of 165 in KY

Livability — Murray

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #18091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murray, KY
• County: Calloway County · 30,981 people
• City population: 30,981
• Metro: Murray, KY
• Population (ZIP): 30,981
• Household income: $50,198
• Rent vs Own: 40.0% rent · 60.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1046.0

Population outlook (Calloway County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,071 people
• By 2030: 42,608 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 45,435 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 48,501 · +18.1%
• By 2075: 56,481 · +37.5%
• By 2100: 63,271 · +54.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calloway

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.2% · R 68.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.43%
• Current HPI: 274.5366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Murray, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+51.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $182,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $185,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $188,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $190,000 WKRMLS
• 2015-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-14 Sold (MLS) $118,000 WKRMLS
• 2015-01-09 Listed $119,900 WKRMLS

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $563 · +17.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.