1037 Everglade Dr · Niceville, FL 32578

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1980 6,969 sqft lot Est $157k · 30% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Waterfront Opportunity in the Heart of Niceville! This . 16-acre lot in the newly rediscovered Bay Shore Subdivision features a fenced backyard and sits directly on a spring-fed lake, offering a rare opportunity to create your ideal home, vacation retreat, or investment property. Conveniently located near Eglin Air Force Base East Gate, 7th Special Forces Group, and Hurlburt Field, this property places you close to some of the area's largest employers while still being just minutes from the world-famous white sandy beaches and emerald-green waters of the Florida Gulf Coast. Located near Boggy Bayou and Choctawhatchee Bay, Niceville is known for its strong sense of community, highly regarded

Key facts

• Spring-fed lake
• Fenced backyard
• 6,969 sq ft lot

Tags

• WATERFRONT OPPORTUNITY
• FENCED BACKYARD
• SPRING-FED LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: City, Mobile Home, Unrestricted
• Financial info: Financial details limited to tax information
• HOA & community: Subdivision: BAYSHORE S/D

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Mobile Home; Single-story; Built in 1980; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Composite shingle roof; Vinyl siding and trim; Off-grade foundation
• Exterior features: Yard building; Partially fenced yard with chain link; Lake view; Lakefront property with approximately 52 feet of waterfront; Cleared, level, interior lot with wooded areas; City street frontage on paved roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first floor); Master bedroom carpeted with attached master bathroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom features carpet, double vanity and garden tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Window air unit(s); Ceiling fans; Electric heat control
• Interior features: Fireplace; Split bedroom layout; Washer/Dryer hookup; Window treatments; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.0% in Niceville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#147 in FL, #2,207 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James E Plew Elementary School (math 77% / reading 79%, grade A, #149 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 829 students, 26% FRL); Niceville Senior High School (math 76% / reading 72%, grade B+, #44 of 667 statewide, top 6%, 2,039 students, 19% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 60% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Okaloosa average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 343 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $82k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.13%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,686
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1037 Everglade Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,488 (0%)	1mo	$82,000	$55	100
1031 Everglade Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-13%)	3mo	$100,000	$78	74
1416 Cape Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+9%)	15mo	$209,000	$129	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $39,635
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $91,726
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32578

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 343
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,234 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $1,004

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,080	-5% $1,042	+0% $1,004	+5% $966	+10% $928
Rent	-10% $828	-5% $916	+0% $1,004	+5% $1,093	+10% $1,181
Rate	-1.0pp $1,060	-0.5pp $1,032	base $1,004	+0.5pp $976	+1.0pp $947

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
912 Nutmeg Ave Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1118	$2,100	$1.88	45d	1	0.26mi
912 Nutmeg Ave Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1118	$2,100	$1.88	15d	1	0.26mi
124 Harding Rd Unit B Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1566	$2,300	$1.47	15d	1	0.40mi
414 20th St Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,600	$1.44	15d	1	0.65mi
1407 Beaver Run Rd Niceville, FL	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,795	$1.23	45d	1	0.69mi
1401 Beaver Run Rd Niceville, FL	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,900	$1.31	45d	1	0.70mi
1755 Union Ave #14 Niceville, FL	3.0	2.5	1317	$2,200	$1.67	22d	1	0.77mi
454 Reeves St Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$2,100	$1.88	45d	1	0.90mi
103 22nd St Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,300	$1.92	45d	1	0.97mi
225 Hudson Boyd Ct Niceville, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$2,200	$1.97	15d	1	0.97mi
1717 26th St Niceville, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,895	$1.28	45d	1	1.19mi
125 Farrah Ave Niceville, FL	3.0	2.5	1696	$2,200	$1.30	15d	1	1.22mi
300 Yacht Club Dr Niceville, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	15d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $110,000 Active
2. 1981-09-01
   soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 45% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $10,954
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,629
• After-tax cash flow: $9,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Niceville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #2207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niceville, FL
• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,738
• Household income: $108,972
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 660.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.87%
• Current HPI: 498.41
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.36%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+583.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Sold (MLS) $82,000 ECAR
• 2026-05-23 Pending — ECAR
• 2026-05-19 Listed $110,000 ECAR
• 1981-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $63 · +19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.