8240 W Hwy 154 · Gilmer, TX 75644

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,322 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1950 0.78 ac lot $106/sqft · 24% below area Est $183k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this 3 bedroom home in Harmony ISD. This home sits off the road on 0.77 acres and is located about 10 minutes outside of Gilmer. The roof has been recently replaced and the home has been updated to be completely move in ready. Also its located less than 5 minutes to Harmony schools, this location is ideal. Schedule your showings today!

Key facts

• Updated
• Ideal location
• 0.77 acres

Tags

• 0.77 ACRES
• RECENTLY REPLACED ROOF
• UPDATED
• MOVE IN READY
• IDEAL LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $201 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.9% in Gilmer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Harmony ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.17%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,332
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -23.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $89,012
• Equity at exit: $126,033

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.43×
• Total profit: $252,009
• Equity at exit: $271,795

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75644

• Home prices YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,431/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $201

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,153

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $139,900 Pending 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-04-13
    price $139,900 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Take a look at this 3 bedroom home in Harmony ISD. This home sits off the road on 0.77 acres and is located about 10 minutes outside of Gilmer. The roof has been recently replaced and the home has been updated to be completely move in ready. Also its located less than 5 minutes to Harmony schools, this location is ideal. Schedule your showings today!

15. 2026-04-13
    price $139,900 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Take a look at this 3 bedroom home in Harmony ISD. This home sits off the road on 0.77 acres and is located about 10 minutes outside of Gilmer. The roof has been recently replaced and the home has been updated to be completely move in ready. Also its located less than 5 minutes to Harmony schools, this location is ideal. Schedule your showings today!

16. 2026-03-04
    listed $144,900 Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Take a look at this 3 bedroom home in Harmony ISD. This home sits off the road on 0.77 acres and is located about 10 minutes outside of Gilmer. The roof has been recently replaced and the home has been updated to be completely move in ready. Also its located less than 5 minutes to Harmony schools, this location is ideal. Schedule your showings today!

17. 2026-03-03
    listed $144,900 Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Take a look at this 3 bedroom home in Harmony ISD. This home sits off the road on 0.77 acres and is located about 10 minutes outside of Gilmer. The roof has been recently replaced and the home has been updated to be completely move in ready. Also its located less than 5 minutes to Harmony schools, this location is ideal. Schedule your showings today!

18. 2021-03-01
    soldstatus
19. 2020-07-16
    soldstatus
20. 2020-05-28
    listed $84,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,431 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,130/yr (+$94/mo · 79.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,431
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,352
• − Management: −$1,352
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $160
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$38
• After-tax cash flow: $2,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harmony ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822560
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,303
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3721
• State rank: #224 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gilmer

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1257
• US rank: #21903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,785

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 300.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+64.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $139,900 LAAR
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $139,900 GTAR
• 2026-03-04 Listed $144,900 GTAR
• 2026-03-03 Listed $144,900 LAAR
• 2021-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-16 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2020-05-28 Listed $84,900 GTAR

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,431 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.