11157 Martin Ln · Natalbany, LA 70466

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2000 0.89 ac lot $175/sqft · 19% above area Est $200k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Precious 3-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in a quiet country setting! This charming property features tile and vinyl flooring throughout with no carpet, making maintenance easy and convenient. Enjoy cozy evenings by the wood-burning fireplace and a kitchen with granite countertops. Situated on nearly an acre, the spacious yard offers plenty of room for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing and enjoying peaceful country living. Great for a growing family or anyone looking to settle into a serene setting with plenty of space to call home. WITH AN ACCEPTED OFFER BY JULY 4, SELLER WILL PAY $5000 TOWARD BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Granite countertops
• 0.89 acre lot

Tags

• TILE AND VINYL FLOORING
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS YARD
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: treatment plant
• Home design: Single-story; Very good condition
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built on an irregular lot outside city limits
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Front porch; Wood porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Cable TV; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.4% in Natalbany — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#208 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tangipahoa Parish (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #63 of 98 in LA (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 1,085 units permitted in Tangipahoa Parish in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Tangipahoa County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,692 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.77%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,226
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -12.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11097 Martin Ln	0.11mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (0%)	12mo	$158,000	$158	80
48281 Waltrip Ln	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,099 (+10%)	7mo	$174,900	$159	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $36,807
• Equity at exit: $85,061

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $110,019
• Equity at exit: $136,277

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70466

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $931/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,352

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $253	-5% $203	+0% $154	+5% $104	+10% $55
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $93	+0% $154	+5% $215	+10% $276
Rate	-1.0pp $242	-0.5pp $198	base $154	+0.5pp $108	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 646-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    Precious 3-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in a quiet country setting! This charming property features tile and vinyl flooring throughout with no carpet, making maintenance easy and convenient. Enjoy cozy evenings by the wood-burning fireplace and a kitchen with granite countertops. Situated on nearly an acre, the spacious yard offers plenty of room for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing and enjoying peaceful country living. Great for a growing family or anyone looking to settle into a serene setting with plenty of space to call home. WITH AN ACCEPTED OFFER BY JULY 4, SELLER WILL PAY $5000 TOWARD BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS.

15. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    Precious 3-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in a quiet country setting! This charming property features tile and vinyl flooring throughout with no carpet, making maintenance easy and convenient. Enjoy cozy evenings by the wood-burning fireplace and a kitchen with granite countertops. Situated on nearly an acre, the spacious yard offers plenty of room for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing and enjoying peaceful country living. Great for a growing family or anyone looking to settle into a serene setting with plenty of space to call home. WITH AN ACCEPTED OFFER BY JULY 4, SELLER WILL PAY $5000 TOWARD BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS.

16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
20. 2026-05-11
    listed $185,000 Active 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    Precious 3-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in a quiet country setting! This charming property features tile and vinyl flooring throughout with no carpet, making maintenance easy and convenient. Enjoy cozy evenings by the wood-burning fireplace and a kitchen with granite countertops. Situated on nearly an acre, the spacious yard offers plenty of room for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing and enjoying peaceful country living. Great for a growing family or anyone looking to settle into a serene setting with plenty of space to call home. WITH AN ACCEPTED OFFER BY JULY 4, SELLER WILL PAY $5000 TOWARD BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS.

21. 2026-05-11
    listed $185,000 Active 560-char remark

    Show marketing remark (646 chars)

    Precious 3-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in a quiet country setting! This charming property features tile and vinyl flooring throughout with no carpet, making maintenance easy and convenient. Enjoy cozy evenings by the wood-burning fireplace and a kitchen with granite countertops. Situated on nearly an acre, the spacious yard offers plenty of room for family gatherings, outdoor activities, or simply relaxing and enjoying peaceful country living. Great for a growing family or anyone looking to settle into a serene setting with plenty of space to call home. WITH AN ACCEPTED OFFER BY JULY 4, SELLER WILL PAY $5000 TOWARD BUYER'S CLOSING COSTS.

22. 2021-08-24
    soldstatus $155,000
23. 2021-08-20
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed
24. 2021-07-13
    listed $160,000
25. 2021-07-13
    listed $160,000
26. 2021-07-13
    historical
27. 2013-04-04
    soldstatus $118,000
28. 2013-03-28
    soldstatus $118,000
29. 2012-08-07
    listed $119,900
30. 2012-08-07
    listed $119,900
31. 2010-08-30
    listed $123,000
32. 2010-08-30
    listed $123,000
33. 2009-04-01
    soldstatus $112,700
34. 2009-03-31
    soldstatus $112,700
35. 2009-01-14
    listed $109,000
36. 2009-01-14
    listed $109,000
37. 2001-07-31
    soldstatus $71,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $931 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $962 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$31/yr (+$3/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$931
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,107
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$266
• After-tax cash flow: $2,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tangipahoa Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201680
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $41,283
• Composite: 19.94/100
• National rank: #8676
• State rank: #63 of 98 in LA

Livability — Natalbany

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #16184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 73
• Population (ZIP): 9,815

Population outlook (Tangipahoa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,204 people
• By 2030: 151,413 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 164,374 · +14.0%
• By 2050: 175,427 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 195,165 · +35.3%
• By 2100: 201,641 · +39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Serbian 2% Scandinavian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Tangipahoa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.6% · R 68.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.9pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+27.7 2008: R+30.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Current HPI: 126.0016
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+145.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $175,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $175,000 GSREIN
• 2026-05-11 Listed $185,000 GSREIN
• 2026-05-11 Listed $185,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-20 Sold (MLS) $155,000 GSREIN
• 2021-07-13 Listing Removed — GSREIN
• 2021-07-13 Listed $160,000 GSREIN
• 2021-07-13 Listed $160,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2013-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-28 Sold (MLS) $118,000 GSREIN
• 2012-08-07 Listed $119,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2012-08-07 Listed $119,900 GSREIN
• 2010-08-30 Listed $123,000 GSREIN
• 2010-08-30 Listed $123,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $112,700 Public Records
• 2009-03-31 Sold (MLS) $112,700 GSREIN
• 2009-01-14 Listed $109,000 GSREIN
• 2009-01-14 Listed $109,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2001-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $71,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $931 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.