2915 Stratton Heights Ln · Sealy, TX 77474

$279,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Est $260k · 8% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE JULY 2026. Welcome to the Austin floorplan at Westward Pointe. This 1,655 sq. ft. single-story home that blends open living with comfortable private spaces The welcoming foyer leads into a light-filled family room, creating a natural gathering space at the heart of the home. Just beyond, the kitchen delivers both style and function with premium countertops, sleek cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a smooth connection to the dining area for everyday meals or casual hosting. The primary suite is set apart for privacy and comfort, featuring a walk-in closet and a well-appointed en-suite bath. Secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully placed and versatile, sharing a

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 42 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-426/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.6% in Sealy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#342 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sealy ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #405 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Selman El (math 31% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 639 students, 71% FRL); Sealy J H (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 664 students, 63% FRL); Sealy H S (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 903 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 312 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 410 units permitted in Austin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Austin County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,000 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,835
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1281 Thornbird Trl	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+7%)	1mo	$295,000	$166	70
2205 Laurel Bloom Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+7%)	12mo	$278,990	$157	69
2021 Woodlark Way	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+7%)	15mo	$249,990	$141	64
1147 Buffalograss Trl	0.41mi	4/2.5	1,817 (+10%)	3mo	$289,000	$159	60
2227 Laurel Bloom Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5	1,831 (+11%)	16mo	$254,990	$139	58
1259 Waterside Trce	0.38mi	4/2.5	1,831 (+11%)	6mo	$289,000	$158	58
2030 Woodlark Way	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,831 (+11%)	16mo	$254,990	$139	57
1105 Sundown Prairie Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+7%)	16mo	$276,990	$156	57
1108 Sundown Prairie Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5	1,817 (+10%)	9mo	$305,000	$168	56
2027 Woodlark Way	0.23mi	4/2.5	1,831 (+11%)	16mo	$254,990	$139	56
2007 Woodlark Way	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,831 (+11%)	15mo	$251,990	$138	55
214 White Wing Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,845 (+12%)	15mo	$325,000	$176	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-47,514
• Equity at exit: $41,673

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-44,138
• Equity at exit: $24,165

Cash invested: $78,257 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77474

• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,466
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,192/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $274,354

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $61	+0% $-35	+5% $-132	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-225	-5% $-130	+0% $-35	+5% $59	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $105	-0.5pp $36	base $-35	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,872
• Closing costs: $8,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Morning Dove Trl Sealy, TX	4.0	2.0	1845	$2,400	$1.30	0d	1	0.67mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,490 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,490 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,490 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $279,490 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $279,490 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-05-17
   price $278,990 901-char remark
7. 2026-05-02
   price $276,990 901-char remark
8. 2026-05-01
   price $269,990 901-char remark
9. 2026-04-29
   price $269,990 906-char remark
10. 2026-04-29
    price $266,990 901-char remark
11. 2026-04-29
    price $266,990 906-char remark
12. 2026-04-24
    price $271,990 901-char remark
13. 2026-04-24
    price $271,990 906-char remark
14. 2026-04-23
    listed $276,990 Active 901-char remark
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $276,990 Active 906-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,656
• − Property taxes: −$4,192
• − Insurance: −$1,397
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$8,131
• Taxable loss: −$5,184
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,244
• After-tax cash flow: $818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with minimal needed improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Add smart home automation — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Add smart home automation — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sealy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,842
• Composite: 34.42/100
• National rank: #5200
• State rank: #405 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sealy

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #7463

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sealy, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,846

Population outlook (Austin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,206 people
• By 2030: 33,459 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 35,809 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 37,933 · +17.8%
• By 2075: 44,179 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 47,870 · +48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Austin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.8pp toward R · 2008: -50.9pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+58.4 2016: R+59.7 2012: R+60.3 2008: R+50.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.57%
• Current HPI: 195.9491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $266,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $271,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $276,990 HARMLS