301 3rd Ave · Scotchtown, NY 10941

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 19 Days on market

Built 1975 Good condition $917/mo HOA · 43% of rent ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

In Middletown there is a 2 bedroom 2 full bath, completely renovated Mobile Home on corner lot, new roof, brand new central air, furnace 6 yrs old, brand new hot water heater, new gutters, new shed, new kitchen countertops, new fixtures throughout, stack washer dryer, new moisture barrier, new underbelly and more. Beautifully updated kitchen with dining area that opens to the living room. Two nice sized bedrooms and updated bathrooms. Laundry with in-unit washer and dryer. Enjoy the outside on the enclosed porch with covered entryway, or relax on the back deck and spacious backyard. Property is landscaped with lovely flower boxes, hedges and bushes. Close to shopping, restaurants and mall&h

Key facts

• Updated bathrooms
• Completely renovated
• New roof

Tags

• COMPLETELY RENOVATED
• NEW ROOF
• BRAND NEW CENTRAL AIR
• BRAND NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Monthly association fee of $917; Association fee includes water and sewer; taxes are included in the association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces; Driveway and off-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home; 800 living area (per public records)
• Construction: Other construction materials; Other foundation type
• Exterior features: Level lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Oil-fired heating
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Washer/dryer hookup; Deck; Patio; No basement; No attic; Four total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $296 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.7% in Scotchtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#515 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Montgomery Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 548 students, 34% FRL); Valley Central Middle School (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #480 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 982 students, 41% FRL); Valley Central High School (math 95% / reading 87%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,346 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 59 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.12%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $8,425
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $35,362
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10941

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$917
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,773

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $320	+0% $296	+5% $272	+10% $248
Rent	-10% $126	-5% $211	+0% $296	+5% $381	+10% $466
Rate	-1.0pp $331	-0.5pp $314	base $296	+0.5pp $278	+1.0pp $259

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $917 · $11,004/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $70,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on marketlisting id $70,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $81,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $81,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $81,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $81,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $87,000 799-char remark
18. 2026-04-13
    listed $100,000 Active 799-char remark
19. 2026-04-10
    historical $100,000 799-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,062
• − Management: −$2,062
• − HOA: −$11,004
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,287
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$789
• After-tax cash flow: $2,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully renovated mobile home is in good condition with new updates throughout, making it move-in ready for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance
• Resale Replace carpet — New carpet can improve comfort and reduce maintenance
• Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers
• Rental Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase rental appeal and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance ↑
• Resale Replace carpet — New carpet can improve comfort and reduce maintenance ↑
• Resale Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers ↑
• Rental Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase rental appeal and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Central School District (Montgomery)
• NCES district ID: 3619680
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,186
• Composite: 47.53/100
• National rank: #2271
• State rank: #299 of 590 in NY

Livability — Scotchtown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #9142

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 14,422
• Household income: $99,238
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 525.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 21% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.38%
• Current HPI: 326.3597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.15%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $70,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $81,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $87,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid