1002 Grenfell Ln · Houston, TX 77076

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1950 7,078 sqft lot $137/sqft · 7% below area Est $214k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity in a prime location! This charming home features a remodeled kitchen with a breakfast area, an additional bedroom and bathroom for a total of 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. With a little TLC, this spacious house has endless potential to become your dream home. Plumbing repairs have already been taken care of. Contact us today to schedule a tour and see for yourself the possibilities this property has to offer!

Key facts

• Updates in kitchen
• Tile flooring
• Walk-in showers

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• UPDATES IN KITCHEN
• WALK-IN SHOWERS
• EASY ACCESS TO HARDY TOLL ROAD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story (1950 construction)
• Construction: Built in 1950; Unknown construction materials; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms; 7 total rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-579/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Barrick El (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,536 of 4,322 statewide, top 83%, 486 students, 99% FRL); Henry Middle (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 690 students, 98% FRL); Houston Math Science And Technology Center (math 9% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 2,779 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $200k implies a 733% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,383 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $214,458
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -4.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
264 Parker Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,448 (-1%)	2mo	$225,000	$155	67
11502 Catamore St	0.37mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,400 (-4%)	5mo	$210,000	$150	65
414 Stonework Landing Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,465 (+0%)	12mo	$309,900	$212	52
1705 Margaret St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,332 (-9%)	13mo	$399,000	$300	52
409 Stonework Landing Ln	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,463 (+0%)	12mo	$309,000	$211	51
11026 Catamore St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,244 (-15%)	7mo	$219,999	$177	51
11315 Stonework Grove Ln	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,524 (+4%)	5mo	$279,700	$184	50
11213 Bannister Ln	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,398 (-4%)	3mo	$265,000	$190	47
413 Stonework Sage Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,568 (+7%)	7mo	$279,990	$179	44
416 Stonework Landing Ln	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,568 (+7%)	10mo	$299,900	$191	42
11023 Vista Norte Ct	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,358 (-7%)	14mo	$189,900	$140	41
233 Wellington St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,352 (-7%)	14mo	$239,000	$177	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-35,407
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-34,490
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77076

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$325 /mo · $3,904/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,845

Max offer price $191,480

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $8	+0% $-48	+5% $-105	+10% $-161
Rent	-10% $-189	-5% $-119	+0% $-48	+5% $22	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $3	base $-48	+0.5pp $-100	+1.0pp $-153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
810 Charles Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,450	$1.10	1d	1	0.22mi
810 Charles Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,450	$1.10	45d	1	0.22mi
426 Stonework Sage Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,650	$1.66	45d	1	0.68mi
28 Bucan St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,999	$1.27	26d	1	1.06mi
28 Bucan St Unit G Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,999	$1.27	1d	1	1.06mi
28 Bucan St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,999	$1.27	1d	1	1.06mi
24 Bucan St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,999	$1.27	0d	1	1.08mi
24 Bucan St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1572	$1,999	$1.27	26d	1	1.08mi
209 Clark Meadows Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1620	$2,399	$1.48	14d	1	1.14mi
815 Cravens St Apt C1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,300	$1.18	6d	1	1.15mi
815 Cravens St Apt F2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,300	$1.18	20d	1	1.15mi
9910 Clark Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1695	$1,900	$1.12	9d	1	1.15mi
819 Tidwell Rd #819 Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,300	$1.18	45d	1	1.24mi
965 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,309	$1.14	22d	1	1.27mi
965 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	933	$1,109	$1.19	26d	1	1.27mi
9406 Bauman Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,076	$1.20	21d	1	1.31mi
9406 Bauman Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,076	$1.20	45d	1	1.31mi
9400 Bauman Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,207	$1.51	24d	6	1.32mi
600 E Little York Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,375	$1.62	16d	17	1.38mi
2006 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,075	$1.04	45d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $200,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $204,999 Active Under Contract 89 DOM
8. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 452-char remark
9. 2026-02-18
   listed $204,999 Active 452-char remark
10. 2026-02-10
    historical
11. 2025-12-02
    price $219,976
12. 2025-09-19
    listed $244,876 Active
13. 1992-05-01
    soldstatus
14. 1988-06-01
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,904 · $325/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,904 · $325/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,904
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,712
• − Management: −$1,712
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$947
• After-tax cash flow: $368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,222
• Household income: $42,522
• Rent vs Own: 46.6% rent · 53.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1781.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 29% Black 7% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.76%
• Current HPI: 291.7578
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+733.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $204,999 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $219,976 HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $244,876 HARMLS
• 1992-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,904 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.