23 Sequoia Ct · Ocean Acres, NJ 08005

$299,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1988 6,969 sqft lot Est $350k · 14% under $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

None Available

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Community amenities
• Desirable location

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• WOODED AREA
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pheasant Run HOA; Quarterly association fee of $324; HOA covers trash, common area maintenance, pool, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage with 1 car space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Cape Cod model; Condominium ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Heating present
• Interior features: One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-161/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Ocean Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#425 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,445 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.19%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,520
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
146 Pine Oak Blvd	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,360 (0%)	0mo	$290,000	$213	94
113 Pine Oak Blvd	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+3%)	1mo	$360,000	$257	83
4 Beechwood Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,362 (+0%)	8mo	$325,000	$239	82
13 Dove Tree Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,420 (+4%)	2mo	$335,000	$236	80
147 Pine Oak Blvd	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,503 (+10%)	1mo	$372,000	$248	75
1 Poplar Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,360 (0%)	8mo	$275,000	$202	75
4 Snowbell Ct	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+10%)	1mo	$335,000	$223	67
3 Lakeland Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,309 (-4%)	6mo	$354,500	$271	61
27 Jumping Brook Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,258 (-8%)	1mo	$380,000	$302	60
7 River Bend Ct	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,410 (+4%)	6mo	$389,900	$277	59
14 Westport Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,468 (+8%)	5mo	$380,000	$259	52
26 Dogwood Dr	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,174 (-14%)	9mo	$327,500	$279	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-49,217
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-43,602
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08005

• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,694 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$341 /mo · $4,097/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,711

Max offer price $296,633

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $71	+0% $-13	+5% $-98	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-120	+0% $-13	+5% $93	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $63	base $-13	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Elm Ct Barnegat, NJ	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,600	$1.85	3d	1	0.52mi
2 Elm Ct Barnegat, NJ	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,625	$1.86	2d	1	0.52mi
67 Deer Run Dr S Barnegat, NJ	3.0	2.5	1682	$3,400	$2.02	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $299,000 Active
16. 2007-07-10
    soldstatus $210,000
17. 2007-04-10
    soldstatus $210,000 14-char remark

    Show marketing remark (14 chars)

    None Available

18. 2006-07-28
    listed $214,000 14-char remark

    Show marketing remark (14 chars)

    None Available

19. 1990-06-29
    soldstatus $106,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,097 · $341/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,771 · $481/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,674/yr (+$139/mo · 40.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,097
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,587
• − Management: −$2,587
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,175
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $1,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barnegat Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416470
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,645
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6059
• State rank: #285 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Ocean Acres

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #425
• US rank: #15187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 25,936
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,866
• Household income: $93,584
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 384.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 344.3189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+182.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $299,000 MOMLS
• 2007-07-10 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-10 Sold (MLS) $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-07-28 Listed $214,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,097 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.