620-622 Grayson Ln · Seguin, TX 78155

$389,900

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,694 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $145/sqft · 17% below area Est $481k · 19% under $82/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity in a booming industrial market! This newer construction duplex features durable LVP flooring throughout both units, along with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances that add modern appeal for tenants. Both units are currently rented and occupied, offering immediate income potential. Ideal for investors seeking a low-maintenance property in a high-demand area with strong growth prospects.

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Durable lvp flooring
• 4 parking spots

Tags

• NEWER CONSTRUCTION DUPLEX
• DURABLE LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• IMMEDIATE INCOME POTENTIAL
• LOW-MAINTENANCE PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $390k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-467 ($-6k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-234/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $307k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $307k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1377 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,112/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1053% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,398 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $481,000
• List price: $389,900
• Delta: -18.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
620-622 Grayson Ln	0.00mi	6/4.0	2,744 (+2%)	0mo	$389,900	$142	97
616/618 Heathers Way	0.13mi	6/4.0	2,694 (0%)	7mo	$375,000	$139	88
617-619 Heathers Way	0.10mi	6/4.0	2,744 (+2%)	11mo	$399,000	$145	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-95,715
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-132,865
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1377
• Price-to-rent: 20.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,112 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$636 /mo · $7,636/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$82
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-467

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,703

Max offer price $307,398

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-246	-5% $-357	+0% $-467	+5% $-577	+10% $-688
Rent	-10% $-713	-5% $-590	+0% $-467	+5% $-344	+10% $-221
Rate	-1.0pp $-271	-0.5pp $-368	base $-467	+0.5pp $-568	+1.0pp $-671

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$3,112
Total (2 units)			$3,112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
404 Jean St Seguin, TX	5.0	2.5	3005	$2,495	$0.83	0d	1	0.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $82 · $984/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $389,900 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $389,900 Active Option 55 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $389,900 Active Option 54 DOM
4. 2026-05-19
   historical Active Option 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Great investment opportunity in a booming industrial market! This newer construction duplex features durable LVP flooring throughout both units, along with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances that add modern appeal for tenants. Both units are currently rented and occupied, offering immediate income potential. Ideal for investors seeking a low-maintenance property in a high-demand area with strong growth prospects.

5. 2026-05-06
   status Back on Market 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Great investment opportunity in a booming industrial market! This newer construction duplex features durable LVP flooring throughout both units, along with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances that add modern appeal for tenants. Both units are currently rented and occupied, offering immediate income potential. Ideal for investors seeking a low-maintenance property in a high-demand area with strong growth prospects.

6. 2026-04-21
   historical Active Option 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Great investment opportunity in a booming industrial market! This newer construction duplex features durable LVP flooring throughout both units, along with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances that add modern appeal for tenants. Both units are currently rented and occupied, offering immediate income potential. Ideal for investors seeking a low-maintenance property in a high-demand area with strong growth prospects.

7. 2026-04-07
   listed $389,900 New 432-char remark

   Show marketing remark (432 chars)

   Great investment opportunity in a booming industrial market! This newer construction duplex features durable LVP flooring throughout both units, along with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances that add modern appeal for tenants. Both units are currently rented and occupied, offering immediate income potential. Ideal for investors seeking a low-maintenance property in a high-demand area with strong growth prospects.

8. 2025-03-03
   historical $1,525
9. 2024-11-08
   listed $1,625

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,636 · $636/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,636 · $636/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,344
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$7,636
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,988
• − Management: −$2,988
• − HOA: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$12,384
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,972
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This newer construction duplex is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a low-maintenance property. It offers immediate income potential and is an ideal investment opportunity in a high-demand area with strong growth prospects.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more tenants/investors.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more tenants and increasing rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and attract tech-savvy tenants/investors, boosting both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more tenants and increasing rental value, while also making the home more appealing to buyers, increasing resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more tenants/investors. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more tenants and increasing rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and attract tech-savvy tenants/investors, boosting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen appliances can make the home more appealing to potential buyers and renters, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more tenants and increasing rental value, while also making the home more appealing to buyers, increasing resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+23893.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-07 Listed $389,900 LERA
• 2025-03-03 Rental Removed $1,525 APPFOLIO
• 2024-11-08 Listed for Rent $1,625 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+108.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $7,636 · -18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.