40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Blvd Spc 275 · Palmdale, CA 93551

$189,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $188k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER MOTIVATED * ANOTHER PRICE IMPROVEMENT!!. .. * MOVE-IN AT CLOSE OF ESCROW TO This 1984 1056sf 3Bedroom 2 Bathroom Manufactured home was RENOVATED in 2023 Buyer Only lived in for 1 month after renovation. Renovation includes * * NEW ROOF, FLOORING throughout, INTERIOR/EXTERIOR PAINT, TOILETS & FAUCETS (both bathrooms), New Cabinet in guest bath, 10 new support PIERS(sub-area). Home equipped with central heat. New King Cool WINDOW EVAP in living room * * Home located on a large CORNER FENCED LOT, including shed, fenced on 3 sides. 2 Car covered carport. KITCHEN INCLUDES: Stove, NEW DISHWASHER. Guest Bath has new Cabinet. NEW FAUCET IN KITCHEN. Primary bedroom has Ensuite Bath A

Key facts

• New toilets
• New faucets
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• INTERIOR EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW TOILETS
• NEW FAUCETS
• NEW CABINET IN GUEST BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 4.5% in Palmdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#861 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Westside Union Elementary (suburban): math 34% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #565 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($120k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,815 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.28%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,968
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Blvd Spc 275	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$180,000	$170	99
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Spc 358	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+2%)	1mo	$245,000	$227	96
40701 Rancho Vis	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+2%)	1mo	$245,000	$227	94
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #44	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,056 (0%)	16mo	$210,000	$199	87
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Spc 263	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	4mo	$189,000	$164	82
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd #122	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	8mo	$239,000	$207	78
40701 W Rancho Vista Blvd #284	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (+6%)	10mo	$183,000	$163	76
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Spc 178	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	10mo	$182,000	$152	69
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Spc 85	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	13mo	$183,000	$191	69
40701 Rancho Vista Blvd Spc.144 #144	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+11%)	16mo	$170,500	$145	68
40701 Racho Vista Blvd #333	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-9%)	18mo	$171,000	$178	65
5200 Entrar Dr #31	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	13mo	$190,000	$165	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $60,604
• Equity at exit: $28,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $163,712
• Equity at exit: $16,384

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93551

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,176/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$702
• Net cashflow: $1,471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,482

Max offer price $189,500

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4660 Grandview Dr Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1494	$3,040	$2.03	1d	1	0.50mi
5637 Redwood Ave Unit B Palmdale, CA	2.0	1.0	760	$2,445	$3.22	1d	1	1.04mi
40333 Argyle Ln Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1374	$3,200	$2.33	15d	1	1.31mi
3713 West Avenue M 11 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,100	$2.58	1d	1	1.37mi
3809 Cocina Ln Palmdale, CA	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,900	$2.06	1d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-03-13
   status Pending Sale
2. 2026-03-13
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-12
   historical
4. 2026-01-28
   listed $189,500 Active
5. 2026-01-24
   price $189,500
6. 2026-01-23
   price $189,500
7. 2025-12-04
   price $193,600
8. 2025-11-25
   price $193,600
9. 2025-09-09
   price $197,100
10. 2025-09-09
    price $197,100
11. 2025-08-22
    listed $198,600 Active
12. 2023-09-21
    soldstatus $179,000 Closed
13. 2023-08-25
    status Pending
14. 2023-08-15
    price $180,000
15. 2023-08-02
    price $185,000
16. 2023-08-02
    status Active
17. 2023-07-07
    status Pending
18. 2023-06-27
    status Active
19. 2023-05-23
    status Pending
20. 2023-05-15
    listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,176 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,440 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$265/yr (+$22/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$1,176
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,211
• − Management: −$3,211
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable income: $15,462
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,711
• After-tax cash flow: $13,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0642120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $80,763
• Composite: 41.01/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #565 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Palmdale

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #861
• US rank: #23501

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmdale, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 177,644
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,360
• Household income: $119,801
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 33% Two or more races 17% Black 10% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.22%
• Current HPI: 327.1791
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+5.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-03-13 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $189,500 AVMLS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $189,500 CRMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $189,500 AVMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $193,600 CRMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $193,600 AVMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $197,100 CRMLS
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $197,100 AVMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $198,600 CRMLS
• 2023-09-21 Sold (MLS) $179,000 AVMLS
• 2023-08-25 Pending — AVMLS
• 2023-08-15 Price Changed $180,000 AVMLS
• 2023-08-02 Price Changed $185,000 AVMLS
• 2023-08-02 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2023-07-07 Pending — AVMLS
• 2023-06-27 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2023-05-23 Pending — AVMLS
• 2023-05-15 Listed $180,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,176 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.