306 Revolution Dr · Venus, TX 76084

$316,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,658 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 2026 4,944 sqft lot $191/sqft · at area comps Est $324k · at est. $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Make a lasting first impression with this beautiful three-bedroom home in Patriot Estates. Designed with entertaining in mind, this home features an open layout with a chef-ready kitchen, a charming dining area, and a spacious family room perfect for gathering with loved ones. Just off the family room is a versatile flex space that can serve as a home office, playroom, or easily be converted into a fourth bedroom. The private master suite offers a spa-like bathroom and a generous walk-in closet for added comfort and convenience. Ideally located right down the road from the neighborhood playground, gazebo, and private community splash pad, this home offers easy access to outdoor fun just ste

Key facts

• 4,944 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $317k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-446 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL); Venus Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 491 students, 80% FRL); Venus H S (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 725 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $225,471 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.03%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,911
• List price: $316,900
• Delta: -2.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 Patton Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,658 (0%)	1mo	$325,900	$197	97
223 Patton Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,658 (0%)	1mo	$325,900	$197	95
126 Patrick Henry Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,606 (-3%)	2mo	$324,890	$202	84
303 Patton Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (+8%)	1mo	$329,900	$185	79
104 John Laurens Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,553 (-6%)	2mo	$289,990	$187	77
128 Patrick Henry Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,553 (-6%)	0mo	$314,890	$203	74
134 Yorktown Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-3%)	1mo	$275,000	$171	73
319 Julian Davis Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,658 (0%)	2mo	$320,900	$194	66
136 Kennedy Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,597 (-4%)	1mo	$270,000	$169	65
523 Bennie Leonard St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,690 (+2%)	2mo	$279,000	$165	64
321 Julian Davis Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (+8%)	2mo	$329,900	$185	49
502 Monroe Jackson St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (+8%)	2mo	$274,000	$153	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $87,217
• Equity at exit: $226,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.06×
• Total profit: $271,586
• Equity at exit: $435,997

Cash invested: $88,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 427
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,662
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$396 /mo · $4,754/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,819

Max offer price $252,391

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-227	-5% $-336	+0% $-446	+5% $-555	+10% $-665
Rent	-10% $-624	-5% $-535	+0% $-446	+5% $-357	+10% $-268
Rate	-1.0pp $-286	-0.5pp $-365	base $-446	+0.5pp $-528	+1.0pp $-611

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,225
• Closing costs: $9,507
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
313 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	9d	1	0.08mi
315 Patton Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,515	$1.16	4d	1	0.08mi
201 John Laurens Dr Venus, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1975	$2,250	$1.14	0d	1	0.20mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	0d	1	0.34mi
512 Albert Anthony St Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,990	$1.20	23d	1	0.34mi
325 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	2189	$2,325	$1.06	14d	1	0.42mi
147 Sammy Fowler Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,250	$1.33	0d	1	0.48mi
523 Bennie Leonard St Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,350	$1.39	0d	1	0.55mi
201 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1626	$2,195	$1.35	21d	1	0.55mi
358 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,995	$1.20	3d	1	0.57mi
208 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,330	$1.31	13d	1	0.58mi
214 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	45d	1	0.61mi
120 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1661	$2,149	$1.29	45d	1	0.62mi
131 Mt Vernon Ln Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,169	$1.31	23d	1	0.64mi
170 Kennedy Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1661	$2,300	$1.38	0d	1	0.64mi
418 Watson Ct Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,210	$1.60	45d	1	0.65mi
101 Hancock St Venus, TX	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,929	$1.09	3d	1	0.66mi
315 Julian Davis Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,355	$1.32	0d	1	0.67mi
427 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,965	$1.61	45d	1	0.70mi
430 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,000	$1.45	4d	1	0.71mi
428 Condie Russell Ave Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1784	$2,150	$1.21	25d	1	0.72mi
501 Gib Woodall Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,945	$1.60	45d	1	0.73mi
108 Rushmore Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,969	$1.19	26d	1	0.76mi
112 Liberty Ln Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$2,309	$1.39	45d	1	0.92mi
135 Houston Pl Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1590	$2,029	$1.28	0d	1	0.93mi
628 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1483	$2,200	$1.48	0d	1	0.96mi
645 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,950	$1.43	45d	1	0.96mi
640-644 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,100	$1.09	0d	1	0.98mi
721 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,595	$1.41	0d	1	1.00mi
728 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	17d	1	1.00mi
656-660 Wheatfield DR Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	0d	1	1.00mi
663 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,695	$1.33	0d	1	1.01mi
645 Fallow Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,950	$1.50	9d	1	1.03mi
705 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,500	$1.32	26d	1	1.03mi
601 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	45d	1	1.03mi
720 Blackland Dr Venus, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,200	$1.14	9d	1	1.04mi
723 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	2.0	1274	$1,695	$1.33	45d	1	1.04mi
733 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1347	$1,795	$1.33	26d	1	1.07mi
620-616 Harvest Moon Dr Venus, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,950	$1.49	45d	1	1.07mi
737 Wheatfield Dr Venus, TX	2.0	1.5	1134	$1,595	$1.41	26d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on marketlisting id $316,900 Pending
2. 2026-03-06
   price $316,900 906-char remark
3. 2026-01-22
   listed $320,900 Active 906-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,751
• − Property taxes: −$4,754
• − Insurance: −$1,584
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,165
• − Management: −$2,165
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$9,219
• Taxable loss: −$11,025
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,646
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Venus, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-06-03 Listed $316,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $316,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $320,900 NTREIS