95 W Wilderness Rd · Morgantown, MS 39120

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,067 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1987 8,712 sqft lot $66/sqft · 27% below area Est $96k · 27% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and well-maintained three-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bath home in the Broadmoor Subdivision. Situated on a spacious lot, it offers plenty of room for family gatherings and entertaining. The subject has an open floor plan and interior laundry area. Ready for its next owner to make it their own.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spacious lot
• 8,712 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• INTERIOR LAUNDRY AREA
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#106 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Natchez-Adams School District (town): math 8% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #114 of 130 in MS (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 283 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 90% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.95% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.11%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,612
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -26.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
87 W Wilderness Rd	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,067 (0%)	4mo	$54,900	$51	91
122 Otis Redding Dr	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,181 (+11%)	19mo	$127,200	$108	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $30,328
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $80,004
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39120

• Active inventory: 283
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $353/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $538

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $694	-5% $674	+0% $654	+5% $634	+10% $615
Rent	-10% $546	-5% $600	+0% $654	+5% $708	+10% $762
Rate	-1.0pp $689	-0.5pp $672	base $654	+0.5pp $636	+1.0pp $618

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $69,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,100 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,100 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,100 Active 112 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,100 Active 111 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,100 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,100 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,100 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,100 Active 105 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    price $89,100 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained three-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bath home in the Broadmoor Subdivision. Situated on a spacious lot, it offers plenty of room for family gatherings and entertaining. The subject has an open floor plan and interior laundry area. Ready for its next owner to make it their own.

18. 2026-03-21
    price $94,050 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained three-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bath home in the Broadmoor Subdivision. Situated on a spacious lot, it offers plenty of room for family gatherings and entertaining. The subject has an open floor plan and interior laundry area. Ready for its next owner to make it their own.

19. 2026-02-16
    status Active 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained three-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bath home in the Broadmoor Subdivision. Situated on a spacious lot, it offers plenty of room for family gatherings and entertaining. The subject has an open floor plan and interior laundry area. Ready for its next owner to make it their own.

20. 2026-02-13
    historical
21. 2026-02-12
    historical 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained three-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bath home in the Broadmoor Subdivision. Situated on a spacious lot, it offers plenty of room for family gatherings and entertaining. The subject has an open floor plan and interior laundry area. Ready for its next owner to make it their own.

22. 2026-02-11
    listed $99,000 Active 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Charming and well-maintained three-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bath home in the Broadmoor Subdivision. Situated on a spacious lot, it offers plenty of room for family gatherings and entertaining. The subject has an open floor plan and interior laundry area. Ready for its next owner to make it their own.

23. 2025-08-26
    listed $104,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $353 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $552 · $46/mo
• Expected delta: +$199/yr (+$17/mo · 56.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 90% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,395
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$353
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $7,121
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,709
• After-tax cash flow: $6,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchez-Adams School District
• NCES district ID: 2803030
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $28,288
• Composite: 10.41/100
• National rank: #9785
• State rank: #114 of 130 in MS

Livability — Morgantown

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #12538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,212

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,614 people
• By 2030: 27,405 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 24,914 · -12.9%
• By 2050: 22,554 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 17,096 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 12,156 · -57.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 56.5% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+16.1 2016: D+14.7 2012: D+18.0 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.67%
• Current HPI: 112.2371
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-14.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $89,100 MLSU
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $94,050 MLSU
• 2026-02-16 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-02-13 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2026-02-11 Listed $99,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-26 Listed $104,000 MLSU